Just as all things tend to do, the NASCAR Cup Series season is nearing its end, and for four unfortunate drivers, their championship hopes are too.
The historic Martinsville Speedway plays the host, and this place holds a special spot in my heart. Twenty-one years ago, I attended my first race here, and to say I’m excited is an understatement.
There is so much opportunity for money to be made this weekend. There are two major heavy hitters below the cut line and two more barely hanging on. Like I said, that means there’s certain to be big opportunities on the fantasy and betting side aplenty.
Whoever is able to manage a walk off win is always exciting, but my advice here is to stick with who we know will be good here, and you should be in good shape. No need for risks, but those are fun too.
Quickly, let’s review Talladega Superspeedway and how horribly it went for me.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Yellawood 500
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Brad Keselowski: 47.6 points scored | Chase Elliott: -13.6 points scored |
| Chase Briscoe: 50.9 points scored | Ryan Blaney: 6.1 points scored |
| John Hunter Nemechek: 48.4 points scored | Michael McDowell: 1.6 points scored |
Fantasy Forecast
Christopher Bell $10,700
I really, really, really wanted to take Blaney again this week, but after last week, I just can’t. Instead, I’m thinking Joe Gibbs Racing is going to put three drivers in the Championship 4.
Bell is no stranger to walking off with a win at Martinsville, something he did back in 2022. I expect yet another this weekend. He has a pretty mediocre 14.7 career average finish there, but he was fast in the spring, finishing second to Denny Hamlin.
As much as I like Team Penske here, JGR is on a generational run with Hamlin and Briscoe getting in already. I think it’s inevitable that it does it with one of its prized horses at this tiny track.
Lock in Bell and watch him wipe away last year’s controversial finish this season in the best way possible.
Chase Elliott $10,000
This one, I’m nervous about.
Yet again, NASCAR’s most popular driver finds himself in a must-win situation, and he’s done it before. But that was five years ago, and a different car altogether. One thing hasn’t changed though: He is really good at this track.
He’s led the most laps at Martinsville in the Next Gen era, has an average finish of 8.0 and my goodness, he was extremely close to walking it off in this race last season. My problem with this pick has been the severe lack of execution at times by this team this season.
Pit road miscues by both driver and crew, untimely crashes and just lack of pace has made him extremely frustrating to pick this season. I think he comes up just short again this year, but I could be wrong. Either way, he will net good fantasy points.
Bubba Wallace $8,000
I always pick him at the Paperclip.
While it’s true that he’s been disappointing at times at this track, he finished third in the spring, and he has won in the lower series. I find that he tends to come out of nowhere a lot of times when the spotlight isn’t on him.
And, as I’ve said before, he and this team made so many strides to be top contenders week in and week out this season.
I do not think Wallace wins this week, but the price is just right for a good solid amount of top-10 points.
Ty Gibbs $7,800
Gibbs is staring down the barrel of another winless season in top tier equipment, and while I don’t think that will change, I think that he’s a solid choice here.
He has won at Martinsville in the Xfinity Series, and honestly has shown he doesn’t really much care about his teammates’ playoff situations. When the chips are down, he will drive his butt off to compete, no matter who is front of him.
Gibbs also ran a solid 13th there in the spring, which was part of a huge momentum swing for him back then, as his season was going off the rails at that time. I look for him to ride his team’s success to a top 15 this week.
Ryan Preece $7,000
Ah, yet another week that remind you all that Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing is winless this season, and trust me, I don’t relish this opportunity.
Just like Wallace, I always like Preece at this place. He’s just made magic too many times at Martinsville not to.
A top-10 run in the spring and being a NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour winner at this track just enhance how I feel about him.
I definitely don’t think Preece wins this race. But he’s not a dark horse there and has potential for a sneaky top five at best and a top 15 at worst.
Todd Gilliland $6,400
Gilliland is just so underrated. I have no doubt if he were with RFK or JGR, he’d be winning races every time you turned around.
Last week at Talladega, he captured his best career finish of second, and buoyed by that momentum, he comes to a place that he scored a top 10 at in the spring.
At this salary point and not a lot of options at the bargain bin, this guy is your ticket to getting you over the top in your groups.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Joey Logano +850 to win: It’s not an even year, so this isn’t probable…is what I would say if Logano hadn’t been just so solid through this playoff round. I mean, yeah he finished 16th at Talladega, but he was a factor near the front all day, and at Vegas that was also the case. As good as Team Penske is here, though usually with Blaney, and this being the 10th anniversary of the Matt Kenseth incident, this just feels kind of right.
- Gilliland +600 to finish top 10: I am just a huge believer in driver No. 34 and that performance last week was so huge. Considering he did this exact thing in the spring, clearly it’s possible, and dare I say probable he’ll be a factor on Sunday.
- JGR Parlay — Hamlin top three, Bell top five, Briscoe top 10: At +685 this is a no brainer to me. Heck, this actually happened in the spring with Hamlin winning, Bell in second and Briscoe in ninth. With the way the racing can be here at Martinsville, history tends to repeat itself and all three of these guys have been consistently outstanding all season. Like I said, no brainer.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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