1. Who will finish higher at Martinsville Speedway, Christopher Bell or Kyle Larson? And will it be for the final Championship 4 spot?
Christopher Hansen: Christopher Bell will finish ahead of Kyle Larson, and it will be for the final spot in the Championship 4. If recent history is any indication, this weekend will see someone below the cut line win their way into the Championship 4, with Ryan Blaney the most likely to do it as the two-time defending champion of the fall race. While it is almost a guarantee that someone beneath the cut line will win, that leaves Bell and Larson dueling for the fourth and final spot. I give Bell the slight edge over Larson, thanks in part to his 2022 victory in that year’s playoffs and top-10 runs in every fall race at Martinsville, except one: last year’s controversial race, which left Bell on the outside of the Championship 4.
Landon Quesinberry: Bell will finish higher than Larson. Bell should have made it to the Championship 4 last year, all things considered. But even without his streak of being in the fight at Phoenix Raceway intact, Bell has been far more consistent than Larson this year. Pair that with the fact that Joe Gibbs Racing has won five of the eight races in the playoffs, and Bell has a pretty strong case. This would be for the last playoff spot, because a driver under the cut line will win.
Andrew Stoddard: Statistically, Bell and Larson are just about dead even at Martinsville. Both drivers have one win at the Paperclip, with Bell winning the 2022 fall race to win his way into the Championship 4 and Larson taking the checkered flag in the spring 2023 race. Oddly enough, Bell and Larson also have the exact same average finish of 15.5 at the half-mile short track in Virginia. With all this about equal, I’m going to go with the hot hand, which is JGR. Bell will outrun Larson, and Blaney will win the race to knock Hendrick Motorsports out of the Championship 4.
Mike Neff: It is going to be a great battle between the two. There is a great chance they will be competing for the win. The left-side tire is new this weekend, and it is designed to experience falloff. With Larson and Bell’s dirt experience, they are excellent at figuring out the sweet spot for tires. Cliff Daniels is the coolest cat on pit lane, and he is going to have that No. 5 team on point.
2. Entering Martinsville, there are no Fords above the cut line in the any of the national series playoffs. Will the Blue Oval be shut out of championship weekend?
Quesinberry: Ford won’t have to panic. Well, for the NASCAR Cup Series, that is. Blaney has won this race two years in a row and will extend that streak to three this weekend. Team Penske has dominated the championship scene for the entire Next Gen era, and that continues at least for another week. It’s hard to imagine a scenario that doesn’t have either him or Joey Logano battling for the title next week. There’s also a good chance we finally see Sheldon Creed score that elusive first victory this weekend to send himself into the title fight for the NASCAR Xfinity Series.
Neff: There is a distinct possibility that can happen, although the win will possibly go through Blaney. The No. 12 team has had things figured out at Martinsville the last two falls. The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series has Layne Riggs and Ty Majeski just outside of the top four. Both of those drivers are excellent short-track racers, and either one could win their way in. Even without winning, they are only five and six points behind the top four, respectively. Xfinity is not looking good for Ford. Sam Mayer and Creed are well back with little shot at advancing.
Stoddard: The Blue Oval will not be completely left out of NASCAR’s championship weekend. At the Cup level, Blaney will represent Ford in the Championship 4 after a walk-off win at Martinsville this weekend. In the Truck Series, Riggs, who has proven to be the closest thing Corey Heim has to a rival this season, will erase a six-point deficit to the cut line to advance to Phoenix. No dice for Ford or Haas Factory Team in the Xfinity Series, though. Better luck next year in the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, Creed and Mayer.
Hansen: At least one Ford driver will make the Championship 4 in both the Cup and Truck series this season while being shut out of the Xfinity title fight. Penske has been the team to beat in the fall playoff race at Martinsville, with Blaney winning back-to-back events in 2023 and 2024. With all four drivers currently below the cut line having won at Martinsville in the past, Blaney seems the most obvious to duplicate his past success at the Paperclip. Additionally, short-track ace Majeski, still searching for his first victory of 2025, seems like the best candidate to lock in a spot at Phoenix with his short-track background. Riggs is another driver who could win his way into the Championship 4, given his success on short tracks in his Truck career.
3. With Jim Pohlman coming in as crew chief, what are the expectations for Kyle Busch in 2026?
Neff: A change of pace can always invigorate a team, but the challenge at Richard Childress Racing is speed. Outside of Richmond Raceway with Austin Dillon, the team has rarely been competitive. Hopefully the organization can find some speed so that Kyle Busch can be in the top five more often. Then he may contending for wins again.
Stoddard: With a name as big as Busch behind the wheel and a championship-winning crew chief in Pohlman, the expectation needs to be at least a return to the playoffs. Ideally, this will be done through a race win, but even making it on points would be a big step forward. Anything less than that, and I’m not sure what else Busch and RCR can do to turn around this slump that now spans more than two years.
Quesinberry: Without a doubt, the expectation is for the team to at least find victory lane one time next year. While that sounds unrealistic given just how far it seems the No. 8 has strayed away from winning races, this ultimately is the expectation you have to set for a team that has Busch on it, especially if the organization wants to keep him for the long haul. If he sits winless by June, I would be shocked if he re-signed again. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had already signed somewhere else in the spring solely based on the damage that’s already been done for the last two years. Either way, the No. 8 needs to find victory lane next year — and it will.
Hansen: Win races. It couldn’t be more simple for Busch, entering a make-or-break season. With Pohlman coming onboard to call the shots, his championship pedigree and success with JR Motorsports and Justin Allgaier is exactly what the doctor ordered for Busch, currently riding a 90-race winless streak, the longest of his full-time Cup career.
4. Who will join Corey Heim in the Truck Championship 4?
Hansen: Majeski, Riggs and Rajah Caruth. Mathematically, both Majeski (five points behind) and Riggs (six behind) can race their way into Phoenix on points, as long as they earn stage points at Martinsville. Caruth enters the cutoff race in the best position points-wise, siting 14 points above fifth-place Majeski. Caruth has steadily improved as the playoffs have gone on, finishing top 10 in the last three races. As long as he has a solid race this weekend with no mistakes, Caruth will go to Phoenix with a chance to win his first championship.
Neff: Majeski and Riggs are both great drivers on short tracks. It is very possible they will both make it to join Heim. Besides those two, it is a crapshoot. Kaden Honeycutt is on a mission, and the story would be a great one. Anyone in the top six has a really good chance to make it this weekend.
Quesinberry: Caruth, Tyler Ankrum and Honeycutt. The trio that currently holds the final three spots will be the ones racing for a title. While we are definitely in store for some shenanigans to take place given the nature of the Truck Series, it won’t be anything that will move the needle in favor of anyone below the cut line. Grant Enfinger is too much of a longshot to win, and while Daniel Hemric was victorious in the spring, he needed the three who dominated the day to implode in order to do it. While Riggs and Majeski are short-track aces, Martinsville isn’t their best short track. In fact, neither of them have scored a win there yet in their career. Heim will score the win, and all of the guys below the cut line will take themselves out of the running one way or another trying to go for the win.
Stoddard: Out of the three NASCAR national touring series, the Truck Series enters Martinsville with the tightest cut line, with just five points separating current eighth-place driver Honeycutt and first-driver-out Majeski. Once the checkered flag waves, it will be Caruth, Riggs and Honeycutt joining Heim to race for a championship at Phoenix. Caruth has the most comfortable gap to the cut line at 14 points above, so with a fast truck and some smart points racing during the first two stages, he should be fine. Riggs has three wins and 14 top-10 finishes in 23 Truck races entering this weekend, and he’s proven to be the one driver who can consistently give Heim a run for his money. Lastly, with everything the No. 52 Halmar Friesen Racing has had to go through with Stewart Friesen‘s season-ending injury, Honeycutt racing his way into the Championship 4 would be a feel-good story and a big career boost for the driver.
Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.