Four drivers enter Sunday’s (Oct. 26) NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway below the Championship 4 cut line, and all four need a win to fight for a title at Phoenix.
William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott all must win at the Paperclip in order to advance to the Championship 4, but doing so won’t be a simple task. There are two drivers in the top four on points — Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson — who could also win and clinch their spot, though without a new winner, both drivers would advance.
This is perhaps the strongest Round of 8 field Cup has ever seen, and certainly the strongest contingent of drivers who could mix the final-four field up with a victory at Martinsville.
Logano won at Martinsville in fall 2018, scoring the victory in an infamous battle with Martin Truex Jr. Byron is a two-time Martinsville winner, while Elliott scored a walk-off Martinsville win in 2020. Even Larson and Bell have both won at Martinsville in recent years.
But no driver who is yet to lock up a Championship 4 spot is as highly touted going into the weekend than 2023 champion Blaney, the two-time defending winner of the Martinsville fall race.
Blaney is far and away the betting favorite this weekend, and for good reason. Not only has he won the last two fall races at Martinsville, but over the last three seasons, he’s also written his Hall of Fame resume in real time. Once thought to be a good driver on the cusp of superstardom, Blaney has broken through to become a top-five driver in the Cup Series.
In general, Martinsville is a track that agrees with Blaney. He has top-five finishes (10) in over half of his starts (19) at the half-mile bullring, and he hasn’t finished worse than 11th at the track since fall 2018. He hasn’t finished off the lead lap since he drove for Wood Brothers Racing, and he’s led 554 laps at the venue since joining Team Penske.
The five other drivers fighting for a Championship 4 berth similarly match the eye test and the stat sheet of Blaney at Martinsville. But in recent years, no driver has been better in the penultimate race of the season than Blaney, who is searching for his third-consecutive Championship 4 berth.
As strong as Blaney’s playoff peers are, they all have distinctive weaknesses that, if they pop up this weekend, could destroy their chances. Both Elliott and Logano have lacked winning speed for much of the season. Unforeseen circumstances have taken Byron out of the last two races.
Larson and Bell are comfortable on points, but they will be focused on battling each other in case a driver below the cut line wins and takes the third spot.
Blaney, of course, who love to be the winning driver. A repeat performance of 2023 and 2024 would put him back in the title hunt and solidify him as one of NASCAR’s current greats.
Statistics and words can only tell so much of the pre-race story. At the end of the day, it’s pretty dang hard to bet against a guy who performs as good as Blaney does in the clutch, especially at Martinsville in the fall.
A member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Samuel also covers NASCAR for Yardbarker, Field Level Media, and Heavy Sports. He will attend the University of Arkansas in the fall of 2025.