Is there a more existential question in the last two decades of NASCAR than “Is this finally Denny Hamlin’s year?”
Probably not. Let’s face it, Hamlin’s elusive quest for a NASCAR Cup Series title has been one of the most discussed and dissected storylines in the sport. And, once again this year, we’re talking about it with Hamlin securing his spot in the Championship 4 at Phoenix Raceway with two races to spare, courtesy of an absolutely incredible final 15 laps at Las Vegas Motor Speedway – a drive that even impressed his buddy Kyle Larson, who knows a thing or two about wheeling a fast car.
So can he finally win the big prize?
Honestly, who knows? It likely depends on whether or not either Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney can survive the Round of Eight, given the sheer relentless dominance of the Penske Fords at Phoenix. But, and it’s an important but, hope springs eternal for Hamlin and the additional time he has before we take the green in the final race of the year can only help his quest.
Worth noting here that the winner of this first race of the final round has won the title five times out of nine total attempts. And also worth noting this is the first time Hamlin has made the Championship 4 in the Next Gen Era.
Now the knock on Hamlin is that he is a choker when it really counts.
His haters delight in telling you that when it counts the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran can’t be counted on; when the pressure is greatest, he’s going to fold like a cheap suit. Many of those disparaging masses will point to Hamlin’s failure to get it done in the final race on the six occasions he’s raced for the title. They’ll conveniently overlook the fact that he is in the top 10 for wins all time (60), 11th for pole positions (47) and 11th for laps led (16,099), not to mention at least one win in 19 of his 20 full seasons and a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer. But yeah, he’s a choker. Sure.
So let’s take a quick minute to analyse those opportunities to win the title one by one.
In 2006, in his rookie season, he was in points contention but essentially needed a miraculous set of circumstances. In 2014, he was lucky to make the final four in a season when he wasn’t even in the top five best drivers of the year. In 2020, and indeed in 2021, he simply didn’t have the speed in the final race. And in 2019, it was an errant piece of tape that caused his car to overheat and go a lap down (so not driver error) when quite possibly he could have secured the title based on speed.
Of course, the one that really got away was 2010, on the back of an eight-win season. But it was as much about the need to pit late in the penultimate race at Phoenix as it was the poor showing at Homestead-Miami Speedway. No question, it’s fair to say that 2010 was a golden opportunity blown.
Now, as thoughts turn to this year’s quest, it’s worth noting his answer in the post-race winner’s press conference (asked by Bob Pockrass) about whether it’s good he has the additional time to prepare or whether it will just stress him out.
“Yeah, I mean, truthfully I don’t get nervous anymore, but I will at some point. […] Is this my last chance to do it?” he said. “Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. I just know I’m going to do it, do the work, and I hope it works out. If it doesn’t, I’m going to be okay with it. I’ve had a season that far exceeded what I thought it would. Yeah, I mean, it’ll set in, I’ll certainly get nervous over the next few weeks about it. But I’m going to be nervous about the things that I control, not the other things.”
And for all those who love to criticize him, the truth is Hamlin has seemed different this year: more at peace with himself and his place in the sport, more able to let the bad moments not define his day.
Starting out the season with very limited sponsorship and a brand-new crew chief could have been a bad mix, but it’s been quite the opposite. New sponsors have hopped on board, including insurance giant Progressive taking over half the slate.
Hamlin and crew chief Chris Gayle clearly have a partnership that is flourishing as the results have shown. Gayle spoke about his approach to the final race in Sunday’s post-race presser.
“We’re going to do everything we can, leave it there in Phoenix,” Gayle said. “Whatever happens happens. Then we’re going to do everything on the front side to get ready. I don’t know that I have the magic formula related to that, other than bring the fastest car I can, which is how I’ve approached all year. I haven’t gotten into mind games (with) what’s happened before. When he sat down with me in the off-season, he mentioned 60 wins, trying to get to the Championship 4.
“He never once said ‘championship’. Obviously, you elevate your mind and what you think you can accomplish as you go further along into the year. We’ve had such a good year, we feel like we should be a frontrunner for the championship.”
But, and doesn’t it always come back to this, a frontrunner he may be, but will Hamlin finally do it and win the title his body of work so obviously deserves? Can he avoid the gremlins, the errant strips of tape, the poor pit stop, the, well, madness he’s seen throughout his career?
“You guys have seen it,” he said. “There’s been weird and crazy things that have kept me from winning a title or advancing to have a chance to. I’ve said many times, if you get enough chances, like eventually just the tides will turn. It’s like, ‘did they start turning today?’ Maybe.”
Soon enough, we’ll know if Hamlin’s tides have turned. Either way, title or not, Hamlin has had a career for the ages and one of which he can be tremendously proud.
Danny Peters has written for Frontstretch since 2006. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.