After a surprisingly competitive race last week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs pull into arguably their most fun racetrack.
Kansas Speedway is a fan favorite and a driver’s favorite to be sure, and this Sunday (Sept. 28) has the potential to produce another playoff gem. As for betting and fantasy here, my results have always been a mixed bag.
It’s not a wild card race like a drafting track race, but there can be some surprises that can catch a fantasy owner off guard.
In short, watch for the usual contenders, especially those in the playoff hunt, but don’t be afraid of the underdogs. Fuel mileage, a well-timed caution or just simply a lucky break could put one of them in a position for a good finish very easily at this track.
Quickly, let’s recap my picks from New Hampshire before we get into this week’s picks:
| Right On the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Chase Elliott: 63.1 points scored | Tyler Reddick: 4.9 points scored |
| Christopher Bell: 52.3 points scored | Bubba Wallace H2H over Ryan Blaney |
| Austin Dillon: 45.4 points scored | Ross Chastain +300 to finish top five: finished ninth |
2025 DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However, any spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
Kyle Larson $11,000
Here’s an unbelievable stat for you guys: Hendrick Motorsports has been completely winless through the first four races of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
That stat has me thinking one thing, though: they’re due.
And who else but “Yung Money” would I pick to get them that win? His entire career he’s been known to dominate these intermediate racetracks, and so far, he’s performed pretty well these playoffs.
Look for Larson to add a fourth career win at Kansas this weekend.
Joey Logano $9,200
Avert your eyes if you’re not big on Logano, but I think he’s well on his way to making it to the Round of 8.
He was absolutely outstanding at New Hampshire, leading 147 laps and bringing home a fourth-place finish boot. His teammate also won last week, which boosts the entire momentum factor for the whole team.
Logano will find a way to be a big factor in this race on Sunday.
Bubba Wallace $8,700
Wallace is basically in a must-win situation if he wants to make it into the next round of the playoffs.
While I’d expect this team to punch above its weight class and go overboard with desperation in past years, things seem different this year.
For starters, Wallace should be pretty full of confidence racing here at Kansas. He’s won here in the past, and he’s consistently fast on these big intermediate tracks.
However, here’s some buyer beware for you guys: He’s not finished better than 17th here since 2023. Again, this team seems different this year, and I expect them to be somewhere near the top five or 10 at the end.
Brad Keselowski $7,700
I really do believe that Keselowski would be in the playoffs had his year not started out so terribly.
While it’s a shame that it went that way for the veteran driver, I think it’s motivated him to play spoiler. Last week at New Hampshire was not good, but the week before at Bristol Motor Speedway was absolutely excellent, and I think we’ll get that version of him this week.
He’s also always solid here at Kansas. He boasts a career average finish here of 11.6, which is phenomenal.
Kyle Busch $7,500
I groaned the second I selected him in DraftKings today, specifically because when I pick him, it’s feast or famine.
I, like most people in the sport, am deeply saddened by the decline of one of the all-time greats. However, I think there will be a silver lining this week.
He’s got 12 career Cup Series wins on intermediate tracks, two of which came at this very racetrack. If Rowdy’s got anything left in the tank, we’ll likely see it here this weekend.
Noah Gragson $5,900
I’m not sure when was the last time that I had Gragson in this column, but welcome back sir.
It’s been a miserable first season for the young driver at Front Row Motorsports in 2025, but there have been some signs that he’s starting to turn things around.
He ran 16th at New Hampshire last weekend, and he has scored 30-plus fantasy points in his last two starts.
Gragson also has a stellar NASCAR Xfinity Series record on intermediate tracks such as this one. I don’t know if that will translate this weekend, but his salary is cheap, and like I said in the intro, there are going to be some dark horses to ride in this race.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Denny Hamlin +110 H2H against Larson: Look guys, I know you’re wondering why I went with Larson in fantasy but am picking Hamlin here with money on the line. It’s pretty simple to me: if Larson does not win the race, Hamlin’s going to. It just seems like he’s on a different level, even among his teammates this season.
- Wallace +380 to finish top five: Again, his recent record here does not indicate that he can do this, but that Brickyard 400 win changed everything. He believes. His team believes. Heck, I believe. And you my friends, should believe too. Sometimes in gambling, that’s all you need.
- Chase Elliott +1300 to win: I hate this pick, full disclosure. I still think Elliott finds a way to the Round of 8, but my goodness the inconsistency on these intermediate tracks makes me worry about it. However, for a while back in the spring race here at Kansas, he looked like he could definitely win the race until an ill-timed caution burned him in the end. Will it change Sunday? I’m beyond unsure, but if he does, this bet could make you a boatload of cash with only a little bit of a wager.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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