It’s been well documented that Hendrick Motorsports faces an uphill climb as it looks for another NASCAR Cup Series championship.
The organization’s flat oval program has not been up to the level of Team Penske or Joe Gibbs Racing through the Next Gen car era, resulting in final four heartbreak for Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott, who otherwise would have had better chances to finish the deal under different championship formats.
It simply did not have the cars to compete in 2023 and 2024. On short runs, Hendrick could hold its own. Once the tires wore over a long run, though, it was guys like Ryan Blaney who could maneuver through the field and effectively put races to rest.
Both Byron and Larson have lauded the gains that HMS has made on flatter tracks like World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway and Iowa Speedway in preparation for the final dance, but the question remains: Even if multiple Hendrick cars make the Championship 4, will that progress be enough?
It’s important to quantify if the growth that’s been talked about actually has taken shape. For the sake of this piece, we’ll focus on the flat track results from the places mentioned above starting in 2023.
2023 Flat Track Results (6 races)
- Byron: Average finish of 13.7 with a win at spring Phoenix. Had 3 total top 10s in this stretch and three finishes outside the top 20 (one of which was a spin from the front).
- Elliott: Average finish of 13.7. Elliott missed spring Phoenix and Richmond due to injury and was suspended for Gateway. Had zero top 10s.
- Larson: Average finish of 5.6 with a win at spring Richmond and several top fives. Had five total top 10s
- Blaney (champion): Average finish of 12.0 with second places at each Phoenix race. Had three top 10s and two finishes outside the top 20.
2024 Flat Track Results (7 races)
- Byron: Average finish of 12th with two top 10s and one finish outside the top 25.
- Elliott: Average finish of 10.7 with four top 10s.
- Larson: Average finish of 10.9 with three top 10s.
- Joey Logano (champion): Average finish of 14.1 with two results outside the top 30 due to wrecks/damage, along with the final win at Phoenix.
2025 Flat Track Results to Date (5 races)
- Byron: Average finish of 6.6, including a win at Iowa and first career top 10 at New Hampshire this past weekend after several concerning performances.
- Elliott: Average finish of 14th that includes one victim of circumstance wreck at Richmond.
- Larson: Average finish of 11.2 with three top 10s.
- Blaney: Average finish of eighth with one result outside the top 25 in Phoenix after blowing a motor while running inside the top 10.
- Logano: Average finish of seventh with four top 10s on the season.
- Austin Cindric: Average finish of 14.4 with one top 10.
- Christopher Bell: Average finish of 10.4 with three top 10s and a win at Phoenix earlier in the year.
- Denny Hamlin: Average finish of 9.8 with two top 10s and a recent win at Gateway.
- Chase Briscoe: Average finish of 13.8 that includes a wreck earlier in Phoenix.
The biggest difference from Hendrick this season on flat tracks is the lack of helpless pace. Too many times over the last few seasons cars such as Byron’s were earning finishes outside the top 20 at Richmond and New Hampshire on merit.
In 2025, the Hendrick teams inarguably brought a better package, sustained more speed over the course of races and put together good finishes.
There’s a lot to like about the development path HMS is on, especially at Gateway and New Hampshire given the pressure to perform on a championship run. Elliott roared through the field at the Magic Mile while Larson displayed race-winning speed at times in St. Louis.
So what’s the catch?
The one area where I question if HMS can finish the job is the long runs. That’s the bread and butter for guys like Blaney who seem to rise to the occasion over the course of time. The driver of the No. 12 is first in passing according to NASCAR Insights, and his teammate in the No. 22 is first on defense per the same metric.
Bell, Hamlin and Briscoe have all demonstrated race-winning speed out west and are no slouches themselves. Bell won in the Valley earlier this season, Hamlin has been on the cusp at times, and Briscoe won one of Stewart-Haas Racing’s final races back in 2022.
With no more data points until the finale, Hendrick essentially has what it has.
The Hendrick drivers’ speed is enough to win the championship … under the right set of circumstances. As much of a cop-out answer as it sounds, I agree with a lot of what Byron, Larson and Elliott are praising about the strides they’ve made.
The problem is I don’t subscribe to the idea that those strides are enough with regards to long-run pace. However, the improvements made on the short to intermediate runs give me enough confidence that an HMS driver can rise to the occasion on a late-race restart compared to years past. Put simply, fans should not feel like the favorites but also should not view this race with the uneasiness and despair of 2023 and 2024.
Byron and Larson have exhibited race-winning speed at Phoenix before with this car, so if they can internalize those processes and put together the right setup with this year’s flat track improvements, Rick Hendrick may be celebrating his first championship since 2021. If not, it’s another year of going back to the drawing board at a race shop that hasn’t been accustomed to this type of drought in almost a decade.
Both drivers and members of the organization alike have reasoned that they can write a new chapter of championship lore in the Next Gen era. Let’s see if Hendrick Motorsports has what it takes to climb back to the mountaintop.
Thomas is in his first year covering NASCAR at Frontstretch. A Bay Area NASCAR fan for over 15+ years, he found his love for the sport through Jeff Gordon.
Thomas has enjoyed several trips to Sonoma Raceway in his time and currently covers college football in the Bay Area, also writing about the California Golden Bears.