Did You Notice? … And then there were 12? The NASCAR Cup Series starts its next elimination round this Sunday (Sept. 21) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway with its championship favorites mostly intact.
This year’s edition has seen the cream rise straight to the top. All four drivers from last year’s Championship 4 remain in the field, along with every Cup champion we’ve had this decade. Nine of the 12 drivers are from each manufacturer’s top program: Team Penske (Ford), Hendrick Motorsports (Chevy) and Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) still have three each.
Who’s in the best position among the 12 to advance? Let’s take a closer look.
Denny Hamlin (26 above cut line)
Hamlin remains the top seed and my title favorite within a JGR organization that swept the Round of 16 races. Hamlin’s win came at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway, giving him a series-high five on the year; he also won the pole for the Southern 500 to kick off this postseason stretch.
Hamlin has three wins all time at New Hampshire, a track where he’s posted a career average finish of 9.9. He also has seven top-10 finishes at Kansas Speedway in the past eight races, the only blemish a mechanical failure that sidelined him back in May. Those two races alone would be good enough for him to clinch.
That drivetrain is honestly the only way you can see Hamlin failing to move on: the No. 11 team beating itself. To be fair, there are plenty of those ghosts in its postseason past, showcasing that perhaps the biggest hurdle here is more mental than anything else.
William Byron (24 above cut line)
Byron didn’t exactly have the strongest postseason start, failing to lead a lap or earn a top-10 finish the first three races. He’s only been a serious contender out front once this summer: his win at Iowa Speedway in August.
The two-time reigning Championship 4 participant has slow-walked through the playoffs before. He led just two laps, posting a single top-five finish in the Round of 16 during 2023-24, and still wound up one of the last four standing.
But there’s something about the Hendrick performance in 2025 that feels … off. And New Hampshire is a real vulnerability for Byron, who’s never earned a top-10 finish there in seven career starts.
What about this season has felt championship-like for him? Certainly, you would pick two or three of the past few years over this one if given the chance. A subpar season by Byron’s standards (two wins) may just need a jolt at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL to keep from being a surprise exclusion from the Round of 8.
Kyle Larson (24 above cut line)
Larson’s year feels very similar to Byron’s, flaming out last week (32nd) at a Bristol Motor Speedway track where he led 873 of the previous 1,000 laps run. Not a single top-10 finish and a slump that extends back to the Indianapolis 500/Coca-Cola 600 double in May has the No. 5 team feeling shakier than normal.
What Larson does have is a win from the pole at Kansas Speedway in May. Just that alone would be enough to advance. And 52 laps led at Gateway was a glimmer of hope the speed is still there. We’ll see.
Christopher Bell (20 above cut line)
Winning Bristol was just what the doctor ordered for a No. 20 team that hadn’t won since Phoenix Raceway in March. Bell even showed a glimmer of personality for once.
That bodes well for a team better positioned for this round than anyone else. Bell won New Hampshire last year, was runner-up at Kansas in May and also placed second at the ROVAL last fall. It’s not inconceivable to see him win twice in this round, eliminating the gap between him and Hamlin atop the JGR food chain.
Ryan Blaney (19 above cut line)
Blaney and Penske know when to shift into overdrive. An inconsistent season has suddenly been supercharged by eight top-eight finishes in the last nine races, including his win at Daytona International Speedway in the regular-season finale.
Blaney has only one career win at this round, at the ROVAL in 2018. But he’s got good numbers at Kansas (back-to-back top-five finishes), a fifth at New Hampshire back in 2021 and, most importantly, momentum. A team that has the confidence it’ll always find a way has done nothing to change that in these playoffs.
Chase Briscoe (10 above cut line)
Who had Briscoe leading 450-plus laps in the Round of 16 on their bingo card? That’s nearly double Briscoe’s total during the regular season, when he was a clear third among JGR’s four drivers despite some speed in qualifying (a season-high six poles).
Now, though, it feels tough to bet against a man who’s shifted up a gear with crew chief James Small. The No. 19 team itself has a strong history at New Hampshire, with Martin Truex Jr. winning as recently as 2023, while Briscoe’s road course expertise should shine at the ROVAL. After a ho-hum start to the year, Toyota’s strength overall should tow this first-year JGR driver over the finish line, into the Round of 8 and the role of championship dark horse.
Chase Elliott (5 above cut line)
In the past three years, it’s hard to believe Elliott has won only twice. Only Bubba Wallace has fewer victories during that span among drivers still championship eligible.
It makes you feel iffy despite Elliott’s third-place Gateway finish, a Hendrick best within the Round of 16. But an inability to win leaves you vulnerable. Elliott still struggles with the Next Gen chassis on road courses he used to dominate; his average finish on the ROVAL is just 11.3 since the chassis debuted in 2022.
On paper, you’d think there’s enough to survive; Elliott was the pole sitter at New Hampshire last year, after all. But five points is too close for comfort, even with Alan Gustafson’s job potentially on the line with an early playoff exit.
Bubba Wallace (1 above cut line)
A career-high 355 laps led this season is just one of many markers that show Wallace has had the best year of his Cup career. The new father has showcased maturity that’s kept him from getting too down after bad races; in the past, those bumps in the road could turn into monthlong slumps.
23XI Racing doesn’t have the speed it had last year, and it also has twice the distractions (see: NASCAR lawsuit circus). But Wallace has won at Kansas before, is improving on the ROVAL (ninth in 2024) and even has a third at New Hampshire as recently as 2023.
All the signs are pointing toward Wallace taking a big step forward. Now all he has to do is go out and take it.
Austin Cindric (1 below cut line)
Cindric got through to the Round of 12 by the skin of his teeth, a 30th at Bristol after tire woes left him four laps off the pace. His average finish during the Round of 16 was a gaudy 20.3, but since winning Talladega Superspeedway in April, he’s earned a grand total of one top-five finish.
That leaves Cindric the biggest underdog in this round by a country mile. Perhaps the best shot is the ROVAL, where he ran a surprising fourth last year. Otherwise, the goal needs to be beginning a reset to carry into 2026, when he’ll likely be fighting to keep his place at Penske long-term.
Joey Logano (2 below cut line)
For the reigning champ, it’s all about survive and advance in these odd-numbered years that usually leave him a shell of himself. Logano is on pace for his fewest number of top-five finishes (five) and second-worst average finish (16.3) since joining Penske at the start of the 2013 season.
When was his worst average finish? 2024, of course (17.1), a year that also gave Logano an unlikely third title in the sport’s quirky playoff format. And Sliced Bread is showing signs of slicing through the critics again, posting back-to-back top-five finishes inside the Round of 16, the first time he’s done that in over two years.
That surge, combined with past experience and confidence, makes him feel like the eighth and final transfer.
Ross Chastain (2 below cut line)
Chastain hasn’t had a single top-five finish since winning the Coca-Cola 600 in May. He’s led just 14 laps during that stretch and went without a top-10 finish in the Round of 16. Teammate Shane van Gisbergen tanked out of the playoffs despite setting a NASCAR rookie record with four wins.
Chastain was 10th at New Hampshire last season, 18th at Kansas in May and 28th at the ROVAL last October. Did I miss something? Nowhere in the past two paragraphs did I see something called hope.
Tyler Reddick (3 below cut line)
Reddick has all the distractions Wallace has at 23XI. But instead of adapting, it’s been a season of anger for the No. 45 team. There have been no wins, only rotten luck, poor pit strategy and missed opportunities.
The talent is there to bring this team back inside the Championship 4 once again. But the tracks in this round aren’t Reddick’s strong suit as of late (no top-five finishes at any of them since the start of 2024).
And then there’s a matter of focus. When it’s reported no charter means 23XI is in breach of contract, and there are a few people begging you to jump ship, it doesn’t feel like the pieces are in place for a title run. Starting as the 12th and final seed makes it feel like an ugly, uphill battle to advance.
Who Misses The Round of 8: Byron, Chastain, Cindric, Reddick
The author of Did You Notice? (Wednesdays) Tom spends his time overseeing Frontstretch’s 40+ staff members as its majority owner and Editor-in-Chief. Based outside Philadelphia, Bowles is a two-time Emmy winner in NASCAR television and has worked in racing production with FOX, TNT, and ESPN while appearing on-air for SIRIUS XM Radio and FOX Sports 1's former show, the Crowd Goes Wild. He most recently consulted with SRX Racing, helping manage cutting-edge technology and graphics that appeared on their CBS broadcasts during 2021 and 2022.
You can find Tom’s writing here, at CBSSports.com and Athlonsports.com, where he’s been an editorial consultant for the annual racing magazine for 15 years.