Top Dog: Zane Smith
Ever since the “tirepalooza” that occurred in the 2024 spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway, where tire wear reached unprecedented levels with the Next Gen car, NASCAR and Goodyear have been trying to rediscover that secret sauce to deliver a carbon copy of that product.
Yet, the past two Bristol races left a lot to be desired, with tire wear being virtually non-existent, and the stifling short track package of the Next Gen hindering the ability to pass.
In this year’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race on Saturay (Sept. 13), it seemed as though it would be déjà vu despite an aggressively soft right-side tire, with practice speeds showing little fall-off. But about 20 laps into the race, radios lit up with reports of rubber build-up, and the phantom of tire wear appeared again.
That scenario played right into the hands of Zane Smith, a quietly stout driver at tire conservation who pieced together perhaps the best performance we have seen from him in his young Cup Series career.
Smith finished third on a night where he ran the second-most laps in the top 10 and lined up on the front row for the final restart with four laps to go.
To add context in how he got into that position, Smith had assumed the lead with just under 30 laps remaining before making his final pit stop, hoping for the race to run green in an attempt to chase Carson Hocevar down for the win. However, a caution with 12 laps remaining shuffled the deck, and the No. 38 team opted to keep Smith out to line up beside Hocevar on the front row.
On the restart, Smith drove deep into turns 1 and 2, causing both he and Hocevar to slide high and open the door for eventual race winner Christopher Bell as well as Brad Keselowski to scoot by on the inside with fresher tires.
Though he missed out on his maiden victory, this was a prove-it type of night from the 26-year-old.
As validated above, the result wasn’t a product of attrition or strategy for Smith. Even with the chaos of tire fall-off and several cautions, Smith was one of the few drivers to drop anchor in the top 10, finishing the stages in fifth and ninth, respectively.
Smith was a threat throughout the final stage, lining up in third with 50 laps to go to put himself in position to strike. And even though it didn’t pan out in the end, the outside noise of Front Row Motorsports’ joint lawsuit with 23XI Racing against NASCAR, plus FRM as a whole dropping in performance makes Smith’s continued speed and execution remarkable.
Notable Underdog Runs
Both the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series have treated us to generational talents this season in the forms of Corey Heim and Connor Zilisch, and any time one gets pulled up to start in the Cup race, it’s a good time to break the popcorn out.
Speaking of time, it was Heim time in Bristol, as the part-time 23XI Racing driver finished an eye-opening sixth after 500 laps in just his seventh career start.
What made Heim’s run even more phenomenal was the fact that he spent most of the race at least one lap down. The sneak attack of tire wear claimed Heim early, as cording issues set him back in the first stage.
A window of opportunity opened with a caution on lap 354, allowing Heim to take the wave around and get back on the lead lap. As tire strategies continued to unfold over the final 100-plus laps, Heim worked his way into the top 10.
When the final caution flew with a dozen laps remaining, Heim was one of only eight cars on the lead lap. The No. 67 team opted to take four tires, and Heim took the final restart as the highest-running driver with four fresh Goodyear Eagles. His progress was limited due to being gridlocked in the final few laps, but he still capitalized for his best Cup finish thus far.
Heim’s two top 15s have already surpassed those of his full-time 23XI teammate Riley Herbst, and in both instances, he was the highest-running driver from the Denny Hamlin/Michael Jordan-owned team. To think after these results, matched with the fact that he’s having a historic Truck season, that Heim is still a free agent is ludicrous. At what point does a team make the call and sign this rising star?
The top five on the final restart was littered with drivers looking for their first win of the season, as well as some looking for their very first Cup win. Loop Hocevar into that chat, and had the race played out differently in the closing laps, he could have very well been standing in victory lane.
Hocevar and Co. have been adamant that tire conservation hasn’t been their strength, and initially, it looked as though that would sink him in the first stage, finishing it out in 26th.
However, after taking the wave around, a lap 147 caution set up Hocevar to get fresh tires and rocket from 13th to the lead. He would ultimately finish the stage in fifth after another caution and restart shuffled the field.
With the exception of strategic pit stops, Hocevar was a fixture in the top five throughout the final stage, reaching a pinnacle when he stormed to the lead with 35 laps left. He then made one more stop with 25 to go to set up a potential run to victory when the caution flew on lap 489.
Hocevar stayed out to take the lead for the final restart, only for the contact with Smith to push him into the marbles and lose multiple spots. The dirty air didn’t aid Hocevar’s tire deficit, dropping him to seventh and leaving the Spire Motorsports driver heartbroken once again.
The reigning Rookie of the Year has six top 15s in the past eight races, but the empty space for his first trophy grows more glaring. Eventually, it will happen.
Hocevar’s Spire teammate Justin Haley kept the strong underdog showing going with a 13th-place finish following another strong practice session the day prior. Like Heim, Haley had to recover from cording issues during the race that set him back and dropped him a lap down. Fortunately, he received the free pass with 150 laps remaining and drove up to 13th to grab his first top 15 on a non-superspeedway since the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
John Hunter Nemechek joined the dark horses in the top 15 with a 14th-place run, continuing a hot streak that has seen Nemechek deliver a career-best season. The Mooresville, N.C. native took advantage of others’ tire issues in the opening frame, driving from 19th to ninth. Stage two saw Nemechek battle tight-handling conditions on his car, finishing the stage in 15th.
In spite of his improvement this season, Nemechek likely wasn’t the most popular driver with the fans after a lap 311 incident where he got into the back of Chase Elliott entering turn 3, causing Elliott to crash and DNF from the race, raising even more eyebrows considering Elliott is a playoff driver. Fortunately, for Nemechek’s online reputation, Elliott advanced to the Round of 12.
Meanwhile, Nemechek quickly shook the incident off, driving back into the top 10 and eventually reaching the top five with less than 50 laps to go. However, after making his final pit stop, the late caution trapped him a lap down and foiled any late-race crusade. Still, the result was Nemechek’s fourth consecutive top 20, and had he made the playoffs, his points accumulation over the past three races would have advanced him to the Round of 12.
Underdog Power Rankings
1. Hocevar (+1): Two Bristol races this season, and two such events that Hocevar could have won. The sophomore driver looks destined to conquer The Last Great Coliseum one day. For now, he’ll turned his attention to Kansas Speedway, where his results mask true speed he’s had at the 1.5-mile track (one top 20 in four starts).
2. Nemechek (-1): Had Hocevar not been in winning contention, Nemechek would still be in possession of the top spot. Another top 15 to go with top 10 speed continues to make Nemechek look like a way-too-early favorite to win a race next season, and he will carry the momentum to a Kansas track where he finished 10th in the spring.
3. Smith (NR): It’s hard to deny that Smith has been the best driver at FRM this season, and he looked every bit of a future star in Bristol. The second-year driver has been solid at Kansas in his few starts, finishing 10th and 16th in the last two events.
4. Erik Jones (-1): Legacy may not have had the remarkable performance like it did at Darlington, but Jones was able to deliver the team a pair of top 20s in Thunder Valley. Kansas will be a true test to see how far “The Club” and No. 43 team have come, where Jones has just one top 20 since taking over the No. 43. That exception, however, was a third-place result in the fall of 2023.
5. Michael McDowell (–): Another persistent drive from McDowell, who had to recover from a spin to secure a 17th-place finish. The Spire veteran continues to hum his way along to consistent results, though Kansas serves as a mystery. McDowell only has one top 20 in the past four events in The Sunflower State.
Small Team Scheme of the Week
Shane van Gisbergen‘s title hopes may have reached an early dismissal, but if there was a positive, it’s that he had the best livery in Thunder Valley.
Featuring Wendy’s Breakfast Baconator on his No. 88 Chevrolet, Trackhouse delivered once again with the warm, bright colors of this look. No matter which side of the Wendy’s vs. McDonald’s debate you’re on, Wendy’s takes the prize in the livery department.
Entering his fifth year with Frontstretch, Luken Glover is the author of The Underdog House, shedding light on the motivation and performance of NASCAR's dark horse teams as they strive to fight to the top. Additionally, Glover reports for the site at various events, and he contributes in the video editing department.
A 2023 graduate of the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is a middle school math and PE teacher, as well as a basketball coach. He is passionate about serving in his church, playing/coaching a wide variety of sports, and researching motorsports history.