On Saturday night (Sept. 13), the NASCAR Cup Series playoff field will be trimmed from 16 drivers to 12 at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Only 11 points currently separate 12th-place Austin Cindric from 13th-place Austin Dillon going into Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race.
The four drivers below the cut line could see their postseason dreams crumble on Saturday night. Here’s the situation they’re in going into the Round of 16 finale.
Austin Dillon (-11) | Points Racing
A double-digit deficit for Dillon to Cindric is far from optimal, but it’s still very possible for Dillon to point his way into the Round of 12.
Neither Cindric nor Dillon have been particularly impressive at Bristol. In 20 starts at the half-mile short track, Dillon only has four top-10 results. In five Bristol starts, Cindric has zero top 10s.
But Dillon has put together several solid Bristol efforts that, depending on where Cindric runs, could be enough to vault him into the second round of the playoffs. Dillon finished 10th at Bristol on April 13, and while he only has four top-10 finishes at Bristol, he’s finished top-15 12 times.
Cindric’s best Bristol finish was a 13th-place result in the 2024 night race. His average finish at BMS is only 22.6.
If Dillon is able to collect a few stage points and finish top 10, or even top 15, there could be a chance he beats Cindric for the final transfer spot on points.
Shane van Gisbergen (-15) | Points Racing (?)
On one hand, it seems appropriate to put SVG in the category of a points racer for Saturday. Fifteen points is far from an insurmountable gap.
On the other hand, van Gisbergen has a total of two combined starts at Bristol in any NASCAR series – one in the Xfinity Series and one in the Cup Series.
Those starts haven’t gone particularly well, either. Van Gisbergen finished 18th in his Bristol debut in the Xfinity Series last year – a decent result for his first time visiting the track, but nothing spectacular.
His Cup Series debut at Bristol on April 13 was cut short due to mechanical issues and he only completed 208 laps and finished 38th after qualifying 36th.
Van Gisbergen isn’t too far back to be considered in must-win territory, but with a points hole like he has, it seems like he’s in an impossible situation. Asking him to run top 20 seems unrealistic. If Cindric were to run in the low teens or high 20s like he normally does at Bristol, van Gisbergen would have to find a way to score stage points and finish top 15 at the very least, if not top 10, in order to point his way in.
SVG isn’t in a must-win situation, but it’ll take a disastrous evening from Cindric for van Gisbergen to be in the points race.
Alex Bowman (-35) | Must-Win
A pair of disastrous races have left Alex Bowman in an unenviable position: potentially the first driver from the venerable Hendrick Motorsports stable to be eliminated from the playoffs.
Bowman will need to win on Saturday evening in order to advance to the Round of 12. He carries a 44-race winless streak into the weekend.
But there is some hope to be found for the No. 48 team. Bowman won the pole and had top-five speed at Bristol in April before engine issues relegated him to a 37th-place finish. He carried a Tommy Baldwin Racing Chevrolet to a 20th-place finish at Bristol in 2015.
Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2018, Bowman has three top fives and five top 10s at Bristol. He’s also led laps in the last three Bristol races, including 34 in the 2024 night race and 39 in April.
He’ll need to at least lead the final lap on Saturday if he wants to make it past the first round of the 2024 playoffs.
Josh Berry (-45) | Must-Win
Josh Berry has been in a must-win situation since he went spinning on lap 1 of the Southern 500, but another crash at WWTR Gateway only solidified his position.
The good news for Berry fans? He’s one of the most underrated short-track racers in the Cup Series.
Winning on Saturday is the only path forward for Berry, who faced an uphill battle in the postseason even before his misfortune at Darlington and Gateway.
Unfortunately, Bristol hasn’t been the kindest venue for Berry. He only has one top 10 in six combined starts between the Xfinity Series and Cup Series, which came in the 2022 Xfinity Series race.
In three Cup Series starts at Bristol, Berry has a pair of 12th-place finishes sandwiched in between a 29th-place run in the 2024 night race. He led 25 laps in March 2024.
It will be tough for Berry to find his way to victory lane on Saturday evening.
Penske as a whole has struggled at Bristol in the Next-Gen era, and he’ll have to fight his way through a strong contingent of favorites, including Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace.
But the Wood Brothers know how to shock the world at Bristol. Just look at 2001, when Elliott Sadler took the organization back to victory lane after an eight-year drought.
A member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Samuel also covers NASCAR for Yardbarker, Field Level Media, and Heavy Sports. He will attend the University of Arkansas in the fall of 2025.