Friday Faceoff: How Many Hendrick Drivers Will Make the Round of 12?

1. After a rough outing at Darlington, how many cars will Hendrick Motorsports get into the Round of 12?

Mark Kristl: Three out of four Hendrick Motorsports drivers will make the Round of 12. Alex Bowman will be the outlier. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising either, given he was the last driver to make the playoffs and did so not by his own regular-season finale performance at Daytona International Speedway but rather because nobody below the cut line won their way in. Bowman scored zero stage wins and zero victories in the regular season. While he successfully pointed his way into the playoffs, he’s no longer battling the entire NASCAR Cup Series field to make the Round of 12. He’s battling 14 drivers for 11 spots with two races to go. He has a much more competitive crowd.

Christopher Hansen:  I’m confident in saying two Hendrick Motorsports drivers will make it to the Round of 12 but three of the four could realistically get through. Kyle Larson and William Byron should be no-brainers to advance, especially Larson with how he dominated at Bristol Motor Speedway in the spring, which is the cutoff race of the first round. Byron has had an overall solid season with his two victories and the regular season championship to boot. Chase Elliott, on the other hand, could be a toss-up if he advances or not. The driver of the No. 9 hasn’t shown the pace his teammates Byron and Larson have had throughout the season. If Elliott is going to survive the Round of 16, the team needs to unload with more raw speed. Unlike past seasons, Bowman will not have a chance to advance if he continues having weekends like he did at Darlington. The No. 48 was a non-factor from the drop of the green flag and struggled all night en route to a 31st-place finish two laps off the pace. Those kinds of performances will completely destroy any team’s chance to advance in the NASCAR playoffs.

Andrew Stoddard: By the end of the Round of 16, Hendrick’s list of championship hopefuls will be cut in half from four drivers to two. Bowman, who barely grabbed the final playoff spot as it is, very nearly finds himself in a must-win situation already. He has no wins at World Wide Technology Raceway or Bristol. Elliott holds a tenuous nine-point cushion on the cut line. He has rarely shown winning speed this season outside of his playoff-clinching victory at EchoPark Speedway. Like Bowman, Elliott has not won at Gateway or Bristol either. It will be up to Byron and Larson to carry the HMS banner into the Round of 12.

Mike Neff: Fortunately for Hendrick, Larson and Byron had a good point cushion coming into Sunday. Elliott may have had a bad day but still finished 17th. His ability to always seem to be a top-15 finisher will get him through this round. Those three will get to the final 12. Bowman is the one driver who is most likely not going to advance. The No. 48 team has simply not performed up to the caliber needed to advance to the next round.

2. Legacy Motor Club got both of their cars in the top five in the Southern 500. Will Legacy Motor Club be a playoff team in 2026?

Stoddard: Legacy Motor Club will make the playoffs in 2026, and it will be John Hunter Nemechek who gets it done in the No. 42 Toyota. Nemechek has a little more upside and shown a bit more consistency than his LMC teammate Erik Jones, with seven top 10s compared to Jones’ five. Jones will contend on the bubble but not quite join Nemechek in the postseason. Legacy Motor Club is a team on the rise, and 2026 will be the year in which we truly see the fruits of their labor.

Neff: Legacy Motor Club has been trending upward, especially in the last five weeks. Nemechek has been running quite well since Mexico. Jones has been very good for four of the last five weeks. As it trends upward, it is very easy to anticipate it will be a playoff organization next year. Of course, there is also the possibility that it could start slipping similar to what has been happening with Trackhouse Racing, who seems to be losing the edge it had developed. 

Hansen: Legacy Motor Club is miles ahead of where it was at this time one year ago. Both Jones and Nemechek have shown up to the track with more speed on most weekends, but they still need to find a little more pace to consistently run toward the front of the field. Nemechek has set a new career high in top-10 finishes with seven, compared to only four in 2024. Teammate Jones has also improved in those same categories, boasting four top-five finishes versus only one last year, along with five top-10 finishes. Those numbers don’t immediately stick out, but taking into consideration where both drivers finished last year, there are noticeable improvements. Legacy Motor Club will take things a step further and have both drivers competing for playoff spots in 2026.

Kristl: It depends on the NASCAR vs. 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports lawsuit. If NASCAR wins, will 23XI stay in business? Without charters, would Toyota continue to fund the organization? And would sponsors be willing to stay with the team? If 23XI loses, Toyota may aid Legacy Motor Club more, which would greatly improve its drivers’ performances. Could they pull an upset? Sure. On points, though, Jones and Nemechek still have at least another year or two to go before they would become likely playoff contenders based on their weekly results.

3. Josh Berry earned the point for the Xfinity Fastest Lap after returning to the race with crash damage. Should this be allowed? 

Hansen: While the Xfinity Fastest Lap award in each race gives a driver one point, we’ve seen in the playoffs that one point can make the difference when determining which drivers advance in the postseason and which ones don’t. It wouldn’t be fair for playoff drivers to go to the garage, fix crash damage, then return to the track to potentially outpoint a fellow competitor that did not finish to advance to the next round of the playoffs. I’m curious to see whether or not the fastest lap will decide who advances and who doesn’t in this year’s playoffs.

Stoddard: This is not the first time a driver who went to the garage came back to earn the Xfinity Fastest Lap. Just a few weeks ago at Watkins Glen International, Larson, a victim of an early race brake issue, returned to the race several laps down to turn the fastest lap of the day. It makes you wonder if these teams getting knocked out early have found a loophole in the fastest lap rule, tweaking the car into more of a qualifying trim to get that bonus point. NASCAR might need to look into adjusting the Xfinity Fastest Lap so that any team that spends extensive time in the garage cannot earn the bonus point after the fact.

Kristl: Yes. NASCAR should not take the fun out of the award. In an era where the points system, playoffs, stages, etc., take time to explain to a novice fan, this award is straightforward: run the fastest lap in the race, earn a bonus point. Also, if NASCAR indeed requires a lead-lap finish to be eligible for this award, then the races at drafting-style racetracks will have fewer eligible drivers due to the large multi-car crashes. That could, especially in the NASCAR Xfinity and Craftsman Truck Series, alter how teams race because an underdog may choose to ride around until late to stay on the lead lap to be eligible for it rather than ride in the lead pack. Doesn’t that go against the 100% rule that NASCAR seeks from its drivers, and hence why it implemented stages?

Neff: Well, this is a bit of an open question. Should Josh Berry be allowed to run for the fastest lap when he is 120 laps down? Absolutely,  he is deemed to be a legal car, so he is allowed to compete for any available points. If his car was deemed too slow or uncompetitive, then he wouldn’t be allowed on the track. The other interpretation is this: Should you get a point for the fastest lap? That is a dumb rule that should be eliminated.  We need to get back to rewarding leading where we give a point for leading a lap and the most laps. That is ultimately what should be allowed.

4. Which dominant driver is more likely to lose the championship in their respective series: Connor Zilisch in Xfinity or Corey Heim in the Trucks?

Kristl: Corey Heim has won eight times this year, but he’s also lost a few races when he had the best racecar. Be it the mechanical gremlins at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the last-lap contact at North Wilkesboro Speedway, the late-race contact at Martinsville Speedway, etc., Heim has encountered bad luck. What happens if that bad luck, be it from another driver, a bad pit stop, a slow restart, or mechanical woe, strikes again at Phoenix Raceway? Heim is the only one to win for TRICON Garage this year, too. So, while he has been phenomenal, the rest of the organization hasn’t shone to the point where we can be confident Heim will indeed be much better than his fellow Truck Series frontrunners.

Neff: The nature of these playoffs mean that it is quite possible both of these drivers could certainly lose their series titles. Connor Zilisch has not finished worse than fifth in the last half of the season. Heim has had a few poor finishes, but his average finish is two spots higher than Zilisch. Trucks has had six series regulars win races while Xfinity has had eight different regulars take wins. In the end, it feels like there are a few more drivers in Xfinity that could pull off the upset at Phoenix.

Hansen: Heim has been lights out this entire season in the Craftsman Truck Series and has shown no signs of slowing down after locking up his place in the Round of 8 with his Darlington win. However, we saw plenty of occasions early on in the season where Heim had the truck to beat, but either issues with his truck or late race cautions have kept him out of victory lane. As long as Heim makes it to the championship race at Phoenix with a chance at the title, it’s his to lose. If Heim doesn’t beat himself the rest of the way or suffer an untimely mistake when the pressure is at its greatest, he will be the 2025 Truck Series champion.

Stoddard: Heim is more likely to falter in the Truck Series than Zilisch in the Xfinity Series. While Heim has been dominant, Zilisch has been otherworldly, winning six of the last seven NXS races. Heim has also been more snake-bitten than Zilisch. For each checkered flag he has claimed, Heim also has a race he has dominated but lost through bad luck or unfortunate circumstances. Even one race like that in the playoffs can derail even the most solid contender. Give me Zilisch as more likely to win a championship over Heim.