Did You Notice?: Where NASCAR Silly Season Stands For 2026 … & Beyond

Did You Notice? … The current state of NASCAR Silly Season is … wake me when it’s over? As the Dog Days of August get us thinking about 2026, the sport’s big-time free agents have all opted to re-sign with their current teams rather than test the waters elsewhere.

At the moment, only one of the Cup Series’ 36 full-time drivers, Daniel Suarez, is guaranteed to change seats. I expect that number to tick up to about three, maybe four, but it’s still the least amount of movement we’ve seen in decades.

Why?

A couple of reasons come to mind. A lot of deals just happen to find themselves expiring in 2026 and there’s been less of an appetite to buy drivers out a year early. The pending lawsuit with 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports has the potential to change the financial landscape for everyone depending on what happens in court. A new manufacturer, Dodge, is entering the fray but won’t enter Cup until 2027. Cue those expiring 2026 contracts again.

These and other things add up to a whole bunch of race teams sitting on what they’ve got. A closer look at the situation within the sport’s full-time teams reveals a level of unprecedented stability, at least until what could be a whopper of a Silly Season come August 2026.

Here’s a closer look at where each team stands.

Hendrick Motorsports

Alex Bowman (No. 48) – Signed through 2026

Kyle Larson (No. 5) – Signed through 2026

Chase Elliott (No. 9) – Signed through 2027

William Byron (No. 24) – Signed through 2029

Of the four Hendrick drivers, Bowman stands out as the lone wolf without a NASCAR playoff ticket. He’ll sweat it out on the bubble these next two weeks, over a year removed from his last win, but HMS Vice Chairman Jeff Gordon has repeatedly said Bowman’s seat is safe.

The lack of a big name on the market has also kept Bowman’s future job status a quiet murmur rather than the noisy buildup it was in mid-2024. Instead, crew chief Blake Harris could be the one on the hot seat, winning only once in three years paired with the No. 48. It feels like more internal shuffling this offseason is the recipe, then a win-or-else 2026 with Bowman threatened to be cast aside.

Expect the rest of HMS to stay quiet, especially with Elliott’s recent surge in points and performance. Technically, Larson’s contract is up next year but there’s no rumblings of him headed anywhere else. He’s still somewhat of a sponsor pariah five years removed from those April 2020 comments on Twitch.

Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin (No. 11) – Signed through 2027

Chase Briscoe (No. 19) – Signed through 2027+

Christopher Bell (No. 20) – Signed through 2026+?

Ty Gibbs (No. 54) – Grandfather owns team

Hamlin was the big story here, signing a multi-year extension with JGR last month. It’s a deal the three-time Daytona 500 winner expects to be his final contract: He’ll turn age 47 in November 2027, a similar age to when recent retirees Kevin Harvick, Gordon and Tony Stewart hung up the helmet.

That stabilizes this JGR quartet for the next two seasons. Bell is the bedrock of this team for years to come, making two of the last three Championship 4s. Gibbs will remain in one of these seats for as long as he wants to stay there, this year’s likely playoff miss not changing that trajectory.

Finally, there’s Briscoe, who’s won a race and a series-high six poles this season. Nothing’s changing anytime soon at the No. 19.

Team Penske

Ryan Blaney (No. 12) – Signed thru 2026+

Austin Cindric (No. 2) – Signed thru 2026

Joey Logano (No. 22) – Signed thru 2026+

It feels silly to even discuss potential changes with Logano and Blaney, the duo who’ve combined to win three straight NASCAR Cup championships. But what’s worth tracking with Penske is some of the internal turmoil that’s affected the IndyCar side of things. A team that prides itself in continuity is pushing through the loss of former leader Tim Cindric, among others, from a top-tier position in the organization.

While this trio of drivers have all made the playoffs, an uncharacteristic 10-race summer slump has how they’ll perform in 2025 an open question mark. Cindric has been hit particularly hard, posting just one top-10 finish, a 10th, since winning at Talladega Superspeedway in April.

His father’s removal from the team also removes the protection on Austin’s seat. With that said, Penske made clear in June “[Cindric]’s got a contract for next year” and has appeared to quash any thought of changes at the No. 2.

After 2026 is a whole other matter entirely. Carson Kvapil is in the rumor mill down in the sport’s Xfinity Series, in position to sign a full-time deal and run for Penske in 2026. That would put him in position to be Cindric’s replacement, perhaps as soon as 2027 depending on how things shake out.

23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick – Signed through 2026*

Bubba Wallace – Signed through at least 2026

Riley Herbst – Signed through 2026

23XI Racing now runs as an open team due to court decisions rendered against them in the NASCAR lawsuit. While the organization maintains its confidence it will ultimately win the case, that triggered a clause in Reddick’s deal which allows him to become a free agent.

But for a driver that made the Championship 4 last year, a first for Reddick and this team, few options give Reddick greater upside. Perhaps Hendrick if Ally was willing to dump Bowman a year early? I just don’t see it, despite a winless and sometimes frustrating season thus far for the No. 45 team.

Wallace, who just won the Brickyard 400, feels like a 23XI lifer. The questions center around the 26-year-old Herbst, suffering through a tough rookie season where he’s got just one top-15 finish in 24 races.

Herbst brings sponsorship and money to a program that sorely needs it. He’s also signed through 2026. But waiting in the wings is prospect Corey Heim, in contention to seemingly lap the Truck Series field every week and overqualified for a promotion to Cup.

How does this Toyota prospect fit in if 23XI, as it has said repeatedly, wants to keep him in the fold? 2027 is supposedly the year, but will Heim wait … and whose seat will be available? Is part of this process simply convincing the Herbst family and their money he’s better off running full-time Xfinity and contending for titles there? Time will tell.

Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing

Brad Keselowski (No. 6) – owns the team

Chris Buescher (No. 17) – Signed through 2026

Ryan Preece (No. 60) – Signed through 2026?

Ford’s second-best team isn’t expected to make offseason changes. Preece has had a career year in his first season behind the new No. 60, posting nearly as many top-five finishes (three) as he’s earned during his first five full-time seasons in the Cup Series. The length of his contract was not announced, but Preece’s relationship with sponsor Kroger combined with a possible playoff bid make 2026 a certainty with this program.

Buescher, fighting for one of those final spots with Preece, is also under contract for next season. And Keselowski, at age 41, still has a few years left in him despite a step back in performance thus far in 2025.

What I think is something to watch for RFK is Dodge’s emergence onto the NASCAR scene. Keselowski has a rich history with the manufacturer; it supported his father, Bob, and their family-owned ARCA and Truck Series teams in the 1980s and 1990s. Brad then drove Dodge equipment for Team Penske, leading them to the 2012 Cup championship and running the make in Trucks before the manufacturer exited the sport altogether.

Co-owner Jack Roush has been loyal to Ford for 40 years, but his limited involvement (and age) with the team may trump that. Brad’s a smart guy, and he has to be wondering if RFK can ever be the top Ford team over Penske. If not, and there’s an opportunity to be No. 1 elsewhere, is it worth taking?

Front Row Motorsports

Noah Gragson – Signed through 2026

Todd Gilliland – Signed through 2026

Zane Smith – Signed through 2026

FRM, who opted to go younger after losing veteran Michael McDowell in free agency, has had one of its quieter seasons in recent memory. None of the team’s three drivers is inside the top 25 in points — the first time that’s happened since 2019 — and only Gragson has earned a top-five finish. Gragson’s season in particular has been a disappointment after taking a big step forward in his Cup career with Stewart-Haas Racing.

People often forget this FRM program is part of the pending 23XI Racing lawsuit, and was likely hurt more by the recent designation of the plaintiffs as open teams. They look a step behind in equipment and driver development, the trio of drivers racking up a dozen DNFs this season with a dozen races still remaining on the calendar. Finances and focus have both taken a hit.

However, at least with sources in the Frontstretch network of reporters, none of that failure is being blamed on the drivers. All three look set to return for 2026 as FRM plays the long game, hopeful that by then the lawsuit will be resolved and more money from it will allow them to reset and come out swinging next February.

Trackhouse Racing

Ross Chastain – Signed through 2026+

Shane van Gisbergen – Signed through 2027+

Connor Zilisch – 2026 Cup ROTY Candidate?

Suarez’s seat at the No. 99 is headed to Zilisch, recovering from a broken collarbone suffered in a freak accident climbing from the car after winning the NXS race at Watkins Glen. Who knows how long that might delay the announcement, but make no bones about it: It’s happening.

That should stabilize Trackhouse, in theory, for years to come after SVG signed a contract extension through at least 2027 this month. Chastain’s extension, signed in 2023, was never fully announced but former executive Ty Norris was quoted as saying “his beard will be grey” when it expires.

Earlier this year, there was some buzz Chastain could bolt to Hendrick after concerns over both an underperforming Trackhouse and an underachieving Bowman were making the rounds. But that has since died down, Chastain’s signature win in the Coca-Cola 600 putting such concerns to rest. It does bear watching, though to see how he feels long-term about playing second fiddle to van Gisbergen. The No. 1 team has fewer top-five finishes (three) than van Gisbergen’s record-setting four wins as a rookie.

Spire Motorsports

Justin Haley – Signed through 2026?

Michael McDowell – Signed through 2026

Carson Hocevar – Signed through 2026

If there’s a second driver who gets kicked out of a Cup ride for 2026, it’s Haley. A season that started with such promise (Rodney Childers atop the pit box) has slumped into misery for a team that traded away Corey LaJoie midseason last year to get its man.

Indeed, one might argue Haley’s performance in the No. 7 has been worse than LaJoie, posting only one top-10 finish and 18 laps led (although 15 were in the Brickyard 400, where he ultimately finished 11th). Heightened expectations may lead to a quick hook with some Xfinity and Truck drivers out there looking. I’d keep an eye on Sam Mayer, who wanted desperately to move up last season and rose his stock with a NXS win at Iowa earlier this month. LaJoie also weirdly rejoined the Spire Truck program, in position to run the No. 77 the rest of the year. Feels like an impossible reunion but also can’t be 100% counted out.

The other two Spire drivers are in very different positions that lock them into 2026. Hocevar looks like a superstar ready for the first top-tier opportunity that presents itself (Hendrick?). Unfortunately, all of those are one year away. And McDowell? A loyalist who ran with Front Row Motorsports for seven years? This one feels like his final ride in the sport: He turns 41 years old in December.

Richard Childress Racing

Kyle Busch – Signed through 2026

Austin Dillon – Signed through 2026

RCR understands its equipment hasn’t been up to par with Chevrolet. Busch looks and sounds like a driver in need of a change. But both parties haven’t been able to find something better, leading to a rocky-ish marriage continuing with a one-year contract extension where everyone from the outside knows they’re settling.

You wonder if Dodge will make a run at RCR; the two sides were rumored to be talking several years ago. There’s nothing concrete here, but the move would make sense as this once-championship team has taken a permanent back seat to Hendrick at Chevrolet.

A few months ago, this organization had two of the hottest Cup prospects on the market, Austin Hill and Jesse Love, making it seem preposterous Dillon still had a seat in the Cup Series. But Hill’s suspension and recent behavior has been a major buzzkill, leaving Dillon to meander along with less pressure. He’s sitting 28th in points, without a top-five finish this year and with just two since the start of 2023.

Kaulig Racing

Ty Dillon – Unknown status

AJ Allmendinger – Signed through 2026+

Allmendinger is a lifer at Kaulig, who now realizes its mistake in pulling its veteran leader back into the Xfinity Series for a year. The No. 16 will be the ‘Dinger’s as long as he wants to run it now.

Dillon is the one who remains an open question, running for his sixth team in as many seasons. This one feels more likely to stick, with Dillon’s 23.4 average finish more in line with expectations. He’s cooled off after a hot start but has more confidence and chemistry here than any program since Germain Racing in the late 2010s.

It’s possible Kaulig reaches into its Xfinity program. But Josh Williams just got fired while Christian Eckes has had a nightmare season. Daniel Dye simply isn’t ready and Daniel Hemric … been there, tried that, you know? The little extra Chevy support to get Dillon in that car, combined with the occasional top 15, feels like it’ll be enough to survive and advance.

Legacy Motor Club

John Hunter Nemechek – Signed through 2026?

Erik Jones – Signed through 2026+

This time last year, Nemechek was in the rumor mill to get replaced at Legacy. It doesn’t feel like that happens this time as Legacy has ticked upward in performance. A few months ago, JHN appeared to be a playoff driver before a summer slump cooled off those postseason chances. Barring something unexpected like Corey Heim getting pried from 23XI, a change feels unlikely here. Suarez or Haley signings feel like lateral moves.

Ditto when it comes to Jones, whose multi-year deal makes him the lynchpin of the whole operation. Jimmie Johnson thinks highly of Jones, a former Southern 500 winner, and seems ready to build the operation around him while seeking expansion into a three-car program.

Haas Factory Team

Cole Custer – Father owns the team

This one is where the rumors are hot right now, the leftovers of Stewart-Haas Racing perhaps up for sale to Legacy. LMC is embroiled in a lawsuit over a Rick Ware Racing charter that doesn’t appear to be settling anytime soon; there’s no guarantee that judgment will be in its favor.

Is buying the HFT charter a backdoor way to get into the sport? And what are the long-term plans here? While a two-car Xfinity team has gone well for Haas with both drivers in championship contention, the Cup operation has predictably suffered as a one-car team. Custer sits 34th in points, ahead of only Ware and Herbst while posting just a single top-10 finish.

At this point, there’s a decent sample size on Custer in Cup: 141 starts and only two top-five finishes. It’s clear this Xfinity champion can drive, but is he just destined to be back in NXS? Or could a merger with LMC elevate him? Meanwhile, would Haas be better off focusing on building a championship-caliber NXS development shop like JR Motorsports? These are reasonable questions I’m sure they’re thinking about as Joe Custer plans a long-term trajectory for this program.

Wood Brothers

Josh Berry – Signed through 2026+

Berry and Wood Brothers felt like the perfect match when the signing was announced last season. An early win and playoff clincher at Las Vegas Motor Speedway confirmed those suspicions. Considering how long the Woods stuck with Harrison Burton, Berry may have already earned this seat for the rest of the decade.

HYAK Motorsports

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Signed through 2026

Stenhouse was an unlikely playoff contender on merit, not a random superspeedway win, early this season until some run-ins with Hocevar knocked him off his game. Still, it’s been a successful first season for the HYAK Motorsports program that evolved after former owners Tad and Jodi Gaeschickter left the team at the end of the 2024 season.

Funding and resources are a little less than some of the other NASCAR programs, but Stenhouse, with wins in each of the last two seasons, has made the most of it. All sides would be silly to switch gears now, although you wonder if crew chief Mike Kelley will be back in an every-week-at-the-track role come 2026.

Rick Ware Racing

Cody Ware – Father owns the team

Ware seemed unlikely to ever return to the series full-time after some serious domestic violence allegations were levied, then dropped in 2023. This one has been a year to forget, though: three crashes in the first five races set the tone for a 30.0 average finish. Ware sits 36th in points, last of all the full-time drivers and appears to be placeholder for a larger plan in place.

Whether that plan includes the Wares is an open question. Father Rick has already announced a sale to former Spire co-owner TJ Puchyr … except that sale was blocked by the lawsuit with Legacy over its charter. Rumors also abound Ware will be headed to Dodge as one of its flagship programs. Either way, it feels like the Wares may be on their way out of the Cup business in the next few years rather than the leading men of their program.