Top Dog: AJ Allmendinger
They say simple is better, so let’s simplify who the favorites are coming into a road course event in the NASCAR Cup Series.
There’s Shane van Gisbergen, and then there’s everyone else.
As the series embarked upon Watkins Glen International for the Go Bowling! at the Glen on Sunday (August 10), van Gisbergen entered with three consecutive road course wins.
Just a couple of hours later, he breezed his way to four in a row, virtually unchallenged in the final stage.
When you think of competitors who might be able to challenge SVG for the win on the rights and lefts of NASCAR, AJ Allmendinger certainly is one of the first to come to mind. After all, all three of his Cup wins have come on road courses, including his very first at The Glen in 2014.
Instead, Allmendinger finished a quiet 11th, absent from playing into the outcome of the race at the front.
It all started with qualifying, where Allmendinger, who has excelled in qualifying in recent weeks, wound up a disappointing 18th.
Allmendinger struggled with loose conditions in stage one, eventually flipping the stage to close it out in 24th. Stage two would see improvement, as Allmendinger climbed to 13th before pit stops started. He stayed out through the end of the stage to finish the second frame in fourth.
Unlike some of the leaders, the No. 16 team opted to pit during the stage break, lining Allmendinger up in 25th to open the final stage. As the laps ticked off, the Los Gatos, Calif., native slowly ascended up the leaderboard, gaining more spots as others pitted for the final time.
Allmendinger made his final pit stop with just under 30 laps remaining, cycling back outside the top 20. Yet, the forward progress came at a slow pace, and the Kaulig Racing driver could only reach 11th by the end of the race.
It’s been a roller coaster season for the 43-year-old, who was in a position to make the playoffs at one point this season that feels like ages ago. Now, with just two races remaining in the regular season, his best hope may lie in the unknowns of the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway.
Notable Underdog Runs
Let’s just say that Legacy Motor Club’s Monday meetings will be … interesting.
More on that in a little bit, but regardless, Erik Jones churned out a solid 12th-place result on a track type that has had his number in the Next Gen era.
Jones entered The Glen with just two top 10s since the Next Gen’s inception in 2022, both coming during that 2022 season that saw the 29-year-old record four top 15s. But since an 11th-place run at the Charlotte ROVAL that year, Jones had been shut out of the top 15 — until Sunday.
The first stage didn’t project much promise for the No. 43, as Jones struggled with a “horribly loose” car. He closed out the opening frame in 32nd.
With handling issues fixed, Jones worked his way back forward in the second stage, with the only non-stage caution helping his track position. That’s when things got swirly.
After cracking the top 20 for the first time, the field was working the final lap of stage two, with Jones running in the middle of a hornets’ nest. While navigating the right-hand portion of the esses, Jones’ LMC teammate John Hunter Nemechek washed up into him, sending Jones wide. Doing an incredible job of saving it, Jones was able to ease the car back around to wrap up the stage in 18th.
The same couldn’t be said for Nemechek, who ended up in a much more precarious position with Ty Gibbs in The Carousel.
Meanwhile, Jones elected to stay out at the end of the stage to crack the top 10. The team further played strategy by running long in the final stage while others around them pitted, seeing the Byron, Mich., native reach third before pitting with just over 20 laps remaining.
Over the final 20 laps, Jones was able to carve his way from outside the top 20 up to 12th on fresher tires, resulting in his best road course finish since the 2022 ROVAL race. The result is another sign of improvement for the team as a whole, as Jones is on track to better his average finish by three spots compared to last year.
Zane Smith had to feel like a pinball entering The Glen after back-to-back accidents not of his own doing marred the past two races. However, he was able to shake those demons and bring home a 17th-place finish in just his second start at the New York course.
It wasn’t a completely scratch-free day for the sophomore driver, however. On lap 28, Smith was in the tire tracks of Josh Berry and Ty Dillon exiting The Carousel when Dillon made contact with Berry, sending Berry for a spin and off the nose of Smith’s No. 38.
Fortunately, Smith hit Berry fairly square, allowing him to continue with little hindrance.
After finishing outside the top 30 in both stages, Smith finally gained some steam in the final stage through the varying strategies, cracking the top 20 in the closing laps. Avoiding another close call with Nemechek, the Huntington Beach, Calif., native brought his No. 38 home in 17th for his 13th top 20 of the season. In 2024, he had a total of 14 such finishes.
Post-race, a compelling scene unfolded when Carson Hocevar briefly visited Smith to discuss an apparent break that the Spire Motorsports driver cut Smith in the late going. The two were embroiled in a disagreement last week at Iowa Speedway when Hocevar spun Smith into the outside wall, though non-intentional.
Speaking of Hocevar, that discussion above came due to the fact that Hocevar finished right behind Smith in 18th after an eventful day of his own.
Once again qualifying inside the top 10 (his third top-10 start on a road course this season), Hocevar was unable to convert that into immediate stage points, falling to 17th by the end of the opening stage. Hocevar then pitted before the end of stage two to flip the stage, but that strategy quickly went by the wayside.
On lap 52, Spire Motorsports, like Legacy, had a teammate tangle of its own when Hocevar was on the receiving end of a tap from Michael McDowell entering turn 1 while running inside the top 20.
Set back by the spin, Hocevar was forced to bear down and drive his way back forward, eventually returning to the top 20 before the race concluded. Even with the recovery though, it was a disappointing result for a driver in need of a win, who also finished third at The Glen a year ago.
Overall, Spire had a downer as a whole compared to 2024. After placing three cars in the top 10 for the first time in that rendition, Hocevar stood as its top finisher in 18th, with McDowell sandwiched in-between in 19th, while Justin Haley was mired back in 27th. Undoubtedly, Daytona will be circled on this organization’s calendar in two weeks as its last chance to crash the playoff party.
Underdog Power Rankings
1. Hocevar (+2): Though he didn’t get the finish he desired, Hocevar has two 10s to accommodate three consecutive top 20s, negating a stretch of three straight finishes outside the top 20 prior. Hocevar finished eighth in the summer race at Richmond Raceway a year ago, and he owns a win at the Virginia short track in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.
2. van Gisbergen (NR): Considering that this man is on a mountain all to himself on road courses, he is excluded from road racing events. However, he is typically a part of this column’s roster, and van Gisbergen is starting to chip away at oval improvement, making him a more formidable force down the road. More learning will be on tap for the New Zealander at Richmond, as his only familiarity with the facility was a lone NASCAR Xfinity Series start in 2024.
3. Jones (+1): Jones’ first top 15 on a road course in three years is another welcome sight for an organization continuing to climb the ranks one step at a time. Richmond has historically favored Toyotas but has been an enigma to the Byron, Mich., native, who’s recorded a solo top 10 in 15 starts.
4. Allmendinger (+1): It’s a far cry from his 2014 triumph at The Glen, but an 11th-place result after a frustrating qualifying result brings a little consolation, though anything but a win holds no water for Allmendinger right now. The wild card Daytona presents will be his best shot to win his way into the playoffs too, as Allmendinger’s three starts at Richmond in the Next Gen car have also resulted in a finish of 27th.
5. Haley (-3): For a driver who’s reportedly on the hot seat at Spire, those talks won’t cool down after a 27th-place result at The Glen. Adding to the frustration is the fact that Haley was one of the fastest cars in practice. The best thing to do is to focus forward and find the next opportunity to silence the doubters, but Richmond may not present prime pickings. The Winamac, Ind., native is still in search of his first top 20 at the 3/4-mile track.
Honorable Mentions: McDowell, Smith, Nemechek
Small Team Scheme of the Week
As schools begin to go back into session, what better way to wind down the summer than with a root beer float?
Noah Gragson and Front Row Motorsports have you covered, as the team brought out this crisp look at The Glen. With the iconic A&W logos, as well as the familiar orange and brown swirls, this scheme should be a refresher for anyone who sets eyes on it.
Entering his fifth year with Frontstretch, Luken Glover is the author of The Underdog House, shedding light on the motivation and performance of NASCAR's dark horse teams as they strive to fight to the top. Additionally, Glover reports for the site at various events, and he contributes in the video editing department.
A 2023 graduate of the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is a middle school math and PE teacher, as well as a basketball coach. He is passionate about serving in his church, playing/coaching a wide variety of sports, and researching motorsports history.