While 2025 is not, statistically speaking, the worst year of Brad Keselowski’s storied NASCAR Cup Series career — that would be 2022 –- there’s no question this has been very much a year to forget for the 18-year veteran.
Despite all the frustration, Keselowski still has a more than decent shot of winning his way into the postseason after a string of decent finishes in the second half of the regular season and that all important surge of positive momentum.
Keselowski won the first two stages at Iowa Speedway last Sunday (Aug. 3) and had looked likely to break his winless streak that stretches all the way back to Darlington Raceway in early 2024. Ultimately, he finished third thanks to a confluence of events that he could do little about.
“We had an opportunity today, but yeah, it’s disappointing to not be able to get the win,” Keselowski said post-race. “But we put ourselves in position and we can’t control what we can’t control, and we need to focus on what we can and we couldn’t control all the yellows that shifted the dynamics of the race today away from us.”
Given how the start of the year unfolded for the Michigan native, the continued speed in his No. 6 Ford Mustang of late must come as a real relief, even if Sunday didn’t turn out to be the win he looked like he deserved.
Let’s not forget it took until race 13 — the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway — for Keselowski to record his first top-10 effort of the season (fifth).
That was after his first 12 races were marred by a whopping five separate wrecks, miring him in the lower echelons of the season standings.
Since leaving Mexico City — the 16th race on the schedule — 32nd in points, Keselowski has made up a whopping 13 spots with a string of really good runs: 9th at Pocono Raceway, 2nd at Atlanta Motor Speedway, 11th at Sonoma Raceway, 10th at Dover Motor Speedway, 5th at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and his third place run in Iowa this past weekend.
The only blot on his record in the last seven weeks was a 37th-place finish on the Streets of Chicago after a second-lap wreck when, to use his words, “three cars came in from behind and blasted us.”
In other words, an event he couldn’t control.
Now, the reality is Keselowski does need a win in one of the next three races before the postseason gets underway, but given how he’s running you would not rule it out by any stretch of the imagination. It was a point Keselowski was keen to reiterate after the somewhat disappointing end to a promising day in Iowa.
“I just feel like we can win any of these next three races, and that’s a good feeling,” Keselowski said.
There is also a world in which he points his way in, but he would have to have an immaculate haul of points in the next three weeks, not to mention a lot of good fortune breaking his way elsewhere. So what’s that phrase I’m looking for? Oh yeah, win and you’re in.
Taking a peek at his overall record at the three upcoming pre-playoff tracks, across his 580 NASCAR Cup Series starts, Keselowski doesn’t necessarily back up his post-Iowa confidence with his on-track results. But there is certainly a path.
He has four top-fives and six top-10s at Watkins Glen International, but a best finish of ninth in 2019 in the last five years. It’s worth noting that teammate Chris Buescher won the race last year with a thrilling last-lap pass of Shane van Gisbergen.
At Richmond Raceway, Keselowski has a pair of wins (2014 and 2020), six top-fives and 15 top 10s in 30 starts and an average finish of 12.1.
This looks to be his most likely shot at a win. While Iowa is a very different track, characteristics-wise, than Richmond, there are similarities and speed at Iowa that should bode well for Richmond.
At Daytona International Speedway, Keselowski has one win (2016), four top-fives and eight top-10s in 32 starts.
Now it’s true that at the “World Center of Racing” Keselowski often runs well, but then he often finishes poorly, as evidenced by 10 wrecks and one DVP finish in the last 17 races. These are hardly the statistics you want to nurture confidence when you need a result. But, that said, if you keep putting yourself in position at super speedways, that’s really all you can do.
So can he do it? Well, it’s Brad Keselowski, so you can never count him out.
“Obviously, we want to win, but we’re in contention, that’s for sure,” Keselowski said Sunday. “We will keep putting solid runs on the board, and I think this will come to us. We have some pretty strong Ford Mustangs right now.”
And, judging by his post-Iowa remarks, Keselowski does indeed believe he can fight all the way back from a horrible start to snag a coveted postseason berth.
Danny Peters has written for Frontstretch since 2006. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.