If you’re an active NASCAR social media participant, you’ve probably seen a lot of rumors popping up recently that basically lead to the conclusion of Carson Kvapil going to Team Penske.
The rumor somewhat started when The Closing Laps podcast claimed on July 10 that a current NASCAR Xfinity Series regular who isn’t currently in the Ford stable has a deal with Penske. Anyone can have a podcast these days and make up whatever they want to on them, but to the credit of the two hosts on this specific podcast, Cameron used to be a crew member in NASCAR and is likely somewhat well connected, while Matt from BrakeHard has been pretty spot on with his predictions recently.
That doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion the rumor is correct, and neither even said Kvapil’s name when discussing the topic. Still, that is the name a lot of people on social media have run with, even though there are other drivers who fall under that same criteria of being an Xfinity regular not in a Ford. And all of that is assuming that Penske even has a developmental driver signed, and there has been nothing to confirm that it does.
Hearing @Carson_Kvapil is heading to @Team_Penske next year, wonder if that means Penske will bring back their xfinity program as well 👀 pic.twitter.com/exnHccqC06
— Micah Gingerich Designs (@MG06_Designs) July 22, 2025
Usually, I wouldn’t think too much of a rumor gaining traction on social media. But there may actually be smoke to the Kvapil talk.
Because I heard months ago (in late March, to be exact) from a source in the garage, who is usually on the money with Silly Season moves, that Kvapil was already under contract with Penske.
When I first heard it, I thought it was absolutely ridiculous. After all, Kvapil is in his rookie year in NXS, and he’s the only JR Motorsports driver who has yet to win. Plus, why wouldn’t Penske go ahead and announce the deal if Kvapil was in fact already under contract?
Months later, the rumor persists. There’s nothing to confirm it at this point, but there’s also no reason to say it couldn’t happen, either. In fact, there are several reasons why this signing, if it did indeed happen, would make a lot of sense.
The first thing a lot of people have pointed out is that Kvapil’s father Travis previously drove for Penske. That’s the weakest reason and only partially true. The elder Kvapil piloted a Penske No. 06 in a handful of races at the end of 2004 before driving for Jasper Motorsports, which was partially owned by Penske, for the full 2005 season. Kvapil only netted two top 10s and finished 33rd in points in the No. 77 before he and the team parted ways. Both parties involved would probably like to forget that pairing ever happened, but who knows, those bridges may have been left unburned.
What’s more important is that Penske has a history of having a developmental driver on its roster, whether it was Ryan Newman, Justin Allgaier, Parker Kligerman, Ryan Blaney or Austin Cindric. Since Cindric’s promotion to the NASCAR Cup Series, the team has been without a developmental driver, which is highly uncharacteristic.
The team has also shown a trend of signing young talent who were developed by JR Motorsports: Brad Keselowski and Josh Berry (though it was Wood Brothers Racing who made the call to sign the latter). Kvapil’s trajectory to this point has been largely the same as Berry’s, winning a bunch for JRM in the zMAX CARS Tour before being elevated to NXS with the team.
Like Keselowski and Berry, it’s clear Kvapil’s future is not with Hendrick Motorsports the way it has been for JRM drivers in the past. HMS is full at the Cup level for the foreseeable future. If the team does elect to replace Alex Bowman next year or the year after, it would probably go with someone who already has Cup experience. With other top Chevrolet teams Richard Childress Racing and Trackhouse Racing both overstocked with talent, Kvapil likely needs to look outside of the Bowtie when it comes to his future.
But wait, isn’t Penske’s Cup stable full as well? Not exactly.
I don’t see Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney going anywhere ever, but Silly Season next year is expected to be one of the craziest ever. So if either of them ever were to leave, following the 2026 season would probably be the best time. That’s a really far-fetched idea, but if one were to leave, Kvapil could fill the seat.
It’s the other two Penske or Penske-aligned seats that bear watching. Coming into this season, Cindric very well could have been on the hot seat. He had two wins in his first three seasons in Cup while his two teammates split the championships in that same timeframe. Prior to his Talladega Superspeedway win this spring, which is after I initially heard the Kvapil rumor, he had just two top 10s and was 20th in points.
Since then, he’s won a race and looked more competitive, so he’s probably bought himself at least another year in the No. 2. Still, he sits 19th in the standings, when Blaney and Logano are in the top 11. With father Tim no longer in the Penske organization, Cindric probably needs a big 2026 if he’s to keep his ride.
I also wouldn’t exactly call the Woods’ No. 21 locked up for years to come. Berry is still somewhat of an unknown commodity at the Cup level, and Kvapil could’ve been signed in case that pairing didn’t work out.
Berry won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March, and his deal is good through at least next year. But he hasn’t done much since that Vegas win, posting zero top fives and just one top 10 in the 17 races since. Discounting the win, he’s still doing better than Harrison Burton did in any of his three seasons in the No. 21, but his average finish is considerably worse than either of the Matt DiBenedetto seasons in the car.
If Berry doesn’t score another win and continues running as badly next year as he has the past few months, that seat may not be safe. Ultimately, it’s the Woods who decide who will drive their car, despite it being run out of the Penske shop. But if Kvapil has a great 2026 in NXS while Berry struggles and Penske offers them Kvapil, they may be tempted to make a change.
All of that is merely speculation, though, because we still don’t even know if the Kvapil-Penske rumor is true. However, there will soon be signs that will point to it either being real or just fake news. If Kvapil announces he is going to a Ford team next year in NXS? Yeah, he’s probably got a deal with Penske. If Penske revives its NXS program and tabs him as the driver or a driver for it? Then duh, he’s got a deal with the team.
And even if Kvapil is signed with Penske, there’s a chance absolutely nothing could come of it. Allgaier and Kligerman never got Cup opportunities with the team. There were tons of developmental drivers signed in the late 2000s who never got put in a Cup seat by the respective signing team.
At the end of the day, Kvapil’s future is in his own hands. He needs to start winning here and now in Xfinity and establish himself as a championship threat this year and the year(s) after. It doesn’t matter what kind of developmental deals or prospects he has if he doesn’t win races. Once he starts consistently winning, all the cards will sort themselves out and he’ll find himself in a Cup seat, whether it’s for Penske or someone else.
Michael Massie joined Frontstretch in 2017 and has served as the Content Director since 2020.
Massie, a Richmond, Va., native, has covered NASCAR, IndyCar, SRX and the CARS Tour. Outside of motorsports, the Virginia Tech grad and Green Bay Packers minority owner can be seen cheering on his beloved Hokies and Packers.