This week, the NASCAR Cup Series is finally back to ovals as we trade the elegance of Sonoma Raceway for the concrete beast known as Dover Motor Speedway.
Dover has a long and storied place on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, and can be as unpredictable as it is mean. Its weathered surface has been known to be very hard on both driver and machine, and so attrition will be a huge factor this coming weekend.
You must have top-notch equipment in your racecar to survive and thrive. Another key to success here is tire management and balance. While Dover’s four turns are not that different from one another, mastering the hard transition from turn to straightaway is where this race will be won.
As for the fantasy player’s point of view, look to sign drivers who tend to have success at Bristol Motor Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway in the Next Gen era.
For one reason or another, when a driver has been one of those three places, they tend to be good at the other two as well. Dark horse wins here are few and far between, so stray from picking anybody too far out of left field.
There is an exception to the concrete rule this week, and that is Kyle Larson. As you’ll see in the upcoming breakdown of the Sonoma race, something is wrong with the No. 5 team right now. I thought it was a typical summer slump, which it very well could still be. But I haven’t seen him look this lost since his days driving for Chip Ganassi.
So, until the playoffs start, I’d stay away from Larson at all costs.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350
| Right on the Money | Lick Your Wounds |
| Chase Elliott: 53.7 points scored | Kyle Larson: -17.3 points scored |
| Michael McDowell: 52.2 points scored | Chris Buescher: +1400 to win |
| Carson Hocevar: 0.9 points scored |
2025 DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However, any spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
Chase Elliott ($10,000)
I’m sure y’all are sick of seeing the 2020 champion in the lineup again this week, but facts are facts.
Chase Elliott has not finished outside the top 20 in any race this season. This stretch of tracks on the schedule is uniquely suited to his strengths. Dover, in particular, has been good to him for a long time.
His first win here came in 2018, and his most recent, in 2022, was in the Next Gen car. His overall average finish here in the Next Gen era? 5.7. That’s tied for the best among active drivers.
Full of confidence and momentum, he will be a force to be reckoned with on Sunday.
Ross Chastain ($9,500)
Ross Chastain struggled in Sonoma, and he had a 24th-place finish to show for it.
However, he won a stage and made the most of a bad day. Now he comes to a track that he’s been pretty good at in this Next Gen car.
He’s tied with Elliott for best average finish of the era, and he’s a former winner at Nashville. Chastain might not be smashing any watermelons on Sunday, but he should be right in the mix for a podium spot.
Alex Bowman ($8,800)
Alex Bowman got upset by Ty Dillon in the In Season Challenge Tournament at Sonoma, but Bowman is just on another level lately when it comes to luck. The driver of the No. 10 better thank his lucky stars he doesn’t have to go against Bowman at Dover, though.
The driver of the famous No. 48 Chevrolet is a former Dover winner, and he has the third-best Next Gen average finish with a stellar 6.5.
Now, Bowman could very well win this race, but it’s far more likely he leads some laps and maybe grabs a top-five to top-10 finish.
Brad Keselowski ($7,600)
It’s a real shame Brad Keselowski had such a horrible start to his 2025 campaign, because lately, he’s been on a little bit of a hot streak.
He finished runner-up at EchoPark Speedway a few weeks ago, had a bad trip to the Chicago street course and followed that up with his best road course finish in years at Sonoma.
The best-case scenario is obviously that he wins before the cutoff race for the playoffs here in a few weeks, but a sneaky top 10 from him is far more likely at Dover.
After all, Keselowski has won here before and he finished eighth on this track in 2023.
Austin Cindric ($7,200)
It is incredibly difficult to believe that Austin Cindric has not done much of note since his win at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season.
His only top-10 finish since then was a 10th-place finish at Pocono Raceway.
I don’t foresee his luck being anything stellar at Dover this week. But Cindric brought home a solid top-15 finish last season. If he can do that, he’s the value pick here at $7,200.
Josh Berry ($6,800)
Speaking of a driver who hasn’t done a whole lot since winning, it seems like Josh Berry and his Wood Brothers Racing team have done nothing to make us remember he’s locked into the playoffs.
However, the statistics don’t lie, and when it comes to The Monster Mile, it’s clear he has a knack for it.
Berry wheeled Bowman’s No. 48 to a top 10 in 2023 and backed that up with a top 15 when he returned with Stewart-Haas Racing in 2024.
No matter how it shakes out, you could do far worse with your last roster spot than banking on the WBR driver this weekend.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Bowman (+2200) to win: The NASCAR community knows that this is his best shot to win his way into the playoffs. I like the odds and payout for this, and when the chips are down, we’ll see a new side to Bowman that we haven’t seen all season.
- Shane van Gisbergen (+350) to finish in the top 10: SVG sure isn’t on a road course anymore this week, so most people are saying it’s back to running in the mid-20s for him. Now, in all likelihood, that will happen. But he’s a racecar driver with something to prove, and I’m surprised at the odds here. Maybe he’s got an oval top 10 in his sleeve, maybe not, but it’s still a fun bet that you’ll feel like a genius if you hit on it.
- Elliott (+125) over Denny Hamlin: A very interesting H2H this week pits NASCAR’s Most Popular Driver against one who is not as loved. Sure, Hamlin won this race last season and was the only one who could hold a candle to Larson at Bristol earlier in the year. But Elliott has so much positive momentum in his favor, and Hamlin’s cooled after winning at Michigan International Speedway a few weeks ago. I don’t look for him to beat (mostly) everyone’s favorite driver this week.
The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Dover will start at 2 p.m. ET with TV coverage provided by TNT.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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