Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350

The NASCAR Cup Series is trading the twists and turns of the Chicago street course for something at least slightly traditional this week.

Nestled in the hills of Wine Country in the Napa Valley region of California, Sonoma Raceway has been a staple of the Cup Series schedule for decades. That means that the field may very well have a chance to beat Shane Van Gisbergen this week, as his three Cup wins have come on courses recently added to the Cup schedule.

Now, that doesn’t mean you should bet against him this week by any means. He’s still really good, scary good even, on these winding courses. But in my opinion, he’s just not the slam dunk you would think he is. Sonoma has its own way of being unique in how it drives year-to-year, and that’s just hard to plan for.

There have been fuel mileage winners, straight up dominators and downright donnybrooks at Sonoma, so how the race plays out will determine if anybody has anything for the New Zealander.

Let’s take a quick moment to reflect on last week’s events at the Chicago Street Course:

Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Grant Park 165

Right On the Money	Lick Your Wounds
SVG: 62.3 points earned	Christopher Bell (+210) to finish top three: finished 24th
Chase Elliott: 50 points scored	Ford (+550) to win: highest finisher was seventh
Alex Bowman: 39 points scored	AJ Allmendinger (+2200) to win: finished sixth

While I didn’t have a bad week fantasy-wise, my wallet sure is in pain after Ryan Preece came home with a top ten but no victory. Hopefully I’ll be able to find a dollar or two out in Sonoma.

2025 DraftKings Rules of the Road

Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.

However, any spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

Fantasy Forecast

Kyle Larson ($10,500)

I know, I know, you must think I’m crazy. Let me just lay the facts on you guys before you start wearing out the comments tab.

As opposed to last week, I believe there are several drivers who can take the fight to SVG this week. Larson is simply the most expensive.

To put it simply, he is one of the best drivers in the world, no matter the discipline. That alone makes it easy to reason that he could take down the beast that is SVG. But hold on, I’m not done.

Larson is a former winner here and he boasts one of the best average finishes here in the Next Gen era at 8.0. It’s about time this team starts to wake up from their midsummer nap anyhow.

What better way to do that than here against another one of the world’s best?

Michael McDowell ($9,300)

Listen, last week might’ve not looked good on paper for this road-ringing general of the right turns, but for a little while he looked like he had the very best car.

I think a fire has been lit under this group, with all the talk about his teammate Carson Hocevar and last weekend’s flop.

I really like what McDowell is capable of here at Sonoma too. His stats in the Next Gen era are quite impressive too considering his equipment.

He’s finished every Sonoma race since 2022 in the top ten, with two of those being top fives. Look out for driver No. 71 on Sunday.

Chris Buescher ($8,600)

This is who I’ve really got my eye on this weekend.

I brought this up last week, but I think people have forgotten just who it was that beat SVG head-to-head at Watkins Glen International last season.

Sure, Buescher has been a little unreliable and a little inconsistent at times this season. But this portion of the schedule supports the pride of Prosper, Texas.

He won at the Glen last year as I mentioned, but he also has the very best average finish of the Next Gen era here at Sonoma. That average is an absolutely mind blowing 3.0.

If he can put together a complete race weekend, I’d say look for him in Victory Lane.

Ross Chastain ($8,400)

There is a caveat with this pick: Chastain must avoid Joey Logano at all costs for this to pan out.

The three-time champion is not known for letting go of beef, so don’t be surprised if he ships Chastain into the California dust if given the opportunity.

Now, as for why I like this pick, the “Melon Man” might be a little inconsistent on road courses, but he’s been pretty decent at Sonoma, as he’s not finished outside the top ten here since joining Trackhouse Racing in 2022.

Carson Hocevar ($7,000)

On the surface, this probably seems like a bad pick.

After all, Hocevar had a horrible time in Mexico City and also Chicago. But remember what I said about some of these Sonoma races being absolute street fights in the past? Push comes to shove more often than not, and there is perhaps nobody more afraid to push and shove than the driver of the No. 77 Chevrolet.

Plus, the numbers are kind of there with me on the pick. He finished a decent 17th in this race a year ago, which is about what I expect from him on Sunday.

Zane Smith ($6,000)

It’s weird, but I feel like I always pick Smith when I run out of salary.

I could use the same old tired reasons I’d usually give in the past, like the fact that he is a proven road course winner in the Craftsman Truck Series. Instead, I’ll keep it simple.

Last week in Chicago, he got his best finish of the season on a road course, which is a 14th. Last season, he finished 16th at Sonoma. If he can get that done this weekend, he’s already a great investment.

Prop Bets and Locks

1. Chris Buescher (+1400) to win: I’m all in on him this weekend. This just feels right. I feel like Buescher has been knocking on the door of a Sonoma win for the last three years, and even though SVG is the man to beat, this is Driver No. 17’s to lose. Look for Buescher to lock himself into the playoffs and put money in your pocket.
   
2. Ryan Preece (+1000) to finish top ten: I love this gift from the oddsmakers. I feel like this is a gimme. Preece literally did this last week in Chicago. I would be incredibly surprised if this RFK special doesn’t hit.
   
3. Ty Gibbs (+180) to finish as the top Toyota driver: I’ve had my doubts, but I’m starting to think that Gibbs is going to win one of these road courses soon. He was really good in Mexico until it all fell apart, and he was solidly on the podium in Chicago. I’m not ready to bet on him winning, but I feel like this can be done without question. The only real threat to outpace him is Tyler Reddick, and I don’t trust Reddick at Sonoma.