This weekend, the second round of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge will be contested at the Chicago street course.
With 16 drivers still alive over eight matchups, here’s a look at who will be going head-to-head — and who has the best chances of advancing to round three.
(32) Ty Dillon vs (17) Brad Keselowski
Neither driver in this matchup is particularly good at road courses, but if it does rain on Sunday, keep an eye on Ty Dillon. He won a stage at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL in 2020 on slick tires while the rest of the field was on wets. However, the equipment differential between Dillon’s Kaulig Racing Chevy and Brad Keselowski‘s RFK Racing Ford should be enough to give the 2012 champ the advantage.
(8) Alex Bowman vs (9) Bubba Wallace
While Bubba Wallace has improved on road courses as of late — including a 13th-place finish at Chicago in 2024 — Alex Bowman is the defending Chicago winner and carries more momentum into the weekend than Wallace. Bowman isn’t necessarily a flashy road racer, but he usually find a way to snag a solid result. Even on Wallace’s best day at a road course, beating a Hendrick Motorsports Chevy is a tall order.
(12) John Hunter Nemechek vs (5) Chase Elliott
Legacy Motor Club has found speed in recent weeks, but Chase Elliott‘s win at EchoPark Speedway should give the No. 9 team plenty of juice as the circuit heads to Chicago. While Elliott hasn’t won a road course since the advent of the Next Gen car, they’re still arguably his best track type. He finished third in Chicago in 2023, while John Hunter Nemechek was 35th.
(20) Erik Jones vs (29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished sixth at Chicago a year ago, and in a matchup of relatively equal cars, this is a match that could come down to the closing laps. Erik Jones does have more momentum and recent speed on his side, but Stenhouse won’t be afraid to use the bumper in the closing laps if he needs to in order to advance.
(31) Noah Gragson vs (15) Ryan Preece
This might be the easiest matchup to predict. Noah Gragson did finish 14th at Chicago a year ago but had a terrible time at the street circuit in 2023. Ryan Preece, meanwhile, has been a sneakily good road racer this season, winning a stage each at Circuit of the Americas and Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. Preece has also been much quicker throughout the season than Gragson, and when it’s all said and done, the No. 60 should be far ahead of the No. 4 on the pylon.
(26) Carson Hocevar vs (23) Tyler Reddick
Carson Hocevar‘s speed might be one of the biggest summer storylines in the sport, but Tyler Reddick‘s road racing ability and his runner-up finish in last year’s trip to Chicago give him the edge. Hocevar can put together fast laps, but his inability to finish races gives Reddick an advantage, even during a down stretch for the No. 45 team.
(22) AJ Allmendinger vs (6) Ty Gibbs
A pair of solid road racers are featured in this matchup, but in what could be considered an upset, Ty Gibbs appears to have the advantage. He’s finished ninth and third in the two Chicago races so far, whereas AJ Allmendinger has been 17th and 38th. Allmendinger may have more raw talent for road racing, but equipment is another factor to think about; a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota will have more pace and is more reliable than a Kaulig Chevy.
(14) Zane Smith vs (3) Chris Buescher
Zane Smith should be commended for advancing to the second round of the tournament, but Chris Buescher‘s incredible Next Gen road course resume easily gives him the advantage in this matchup. Buescher finished 10th at Chicago in 2023 and won at Watkins Glen International in 2024, making him the easy favorite to advance to round three.
A member of the National Motorsports Press Association (NMPA), Samuel also covers NASCAR for Yardbarker, Field Level Media, and Heavy Sports. He will attend the University of Arkansas in the fall of 2025.