Kyle Busch’s season has taken a turn for the worse over the past couple of weeks. In the NASCAR Cup Series’ first trip to Mexico City, Busch lost control on lap 7 and slid off course in the first turn, triggering a multi-car crash that knocked him out of the race. The resulting last-place finish dropped Busch from the playoff bubble to 50 points below the cut line.
Things did not go much better at Pocono Raceway on Sunday (June 22). First, Busch sped on pit road during the caution period at the end of stage one. Then, he got collected in another accident on lap 83. Busch rebounded from the incident, but he had another setback when the final caution came out on lap 126, prior to his last pit stop. The No. 8 lost all its track position in the pits, and Busch had to fight hard to finish 20th. He lost more ground in the points and is now 63 below the postseason cutoff.
It looks like Busch’s advancement to the playoffs could depend on winning one of the next nine races. That could spell trouble for the No. 8 team. Busch’s winless drought, the longest of his career, currently stands at 74 races. Last year was the first season in Busch’s career where he went winless, and it was the first time that he missed the playoffs since 2012. It is hard to believe that Busch, who has been such a steady winner for nearly two decades, could miss the playoffs for a second year in a row. Yet that is the most likely outcome unless he and the No. 8 team can turn things around.
The longer that Busch’s winless streak drags on, the more his fans search for answers to his struggles. Busch turned 40 earlier this year and obviously is not a young gun anymore, but plenty of drivers who raced before him were competitive well into their 40s. Richard Childress Racing’s inconsistent speed is sometimes identified as a culprit, yet Busch won three times in his first 15 races in the No. 8 car. Remember that Busch also signed a one-year contract extension with RCR last month. That extension could be interpreted as Busch believing he can be most competitive with RCR, Busch and Childress kicking the can down the road to 2026, or perhaps a combination of both thoughts. The only person who knows for sure is Busch himself.
Yet there is another factor that does not get discussed as much. Busch’s age may not be as important as the number of NASCAR races he has run up to this point in his life. He competed in his 731st Cup Series start on Sunday, which is good for 16th on the all-time list. Add in his Xfinity Series and Craftsman Truck Series starts and he’s up to 1,277 starts in NASCAR’s top three series.
Busch is also in his 21st season as a full-time Cup driver. Most drivers are simply unable or unwilling to remain in the Cup Series that long, and even the ones who do tend to have limited success. Some of the drivers who Busch raced against, and ran more than 20 full-time Cup Series seasons, include Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon, and Kyle’s brother Kurt Busch. All three are legends of the sport, and all three represent some of the best-case scenarios for career longevity. Yet when those three drivers were at the same points in their careers as Busch is in his, it was clear that their best days were behind them.
Harvick’s 21st Cup Series season was 2021, and on the surface, things do not look too bad. He made the playoffs, advanced to the second round, and finished fifth in points. However, it was also his first year since 2009 where he did not win a race. He led only 217 laps, his lowest total since, once again, 2009. The 2021 season was also the first time since the introduction of the elimination-style playoffs that Harvick did not advance to at least the third round.
To be fair to Harvick, 2021 was also the year when Stewart-Haas Racing’s competitiveness started to rapidly decline. Harvick carried SHR until the end of his driving career, and he won two more races in 2022, the last wins of his career. It could be argued that Harvick aged better than any NASCAR driver in the modern era. Yet even he could not keep up his winning ways forever.
The 2021 season was also Kurt Busch’s 21st year in the Cup Series. While Kurt was not as productive as Harvick by this point in his career, his season did not have the noticeable drop-off that Harvick’s did. Busch scored one win, just as he had done every year since 2016, and earned exactly six top fives, which he did every year from 2017-2019, a streak that was only broken in 2020 when he earned seven top fives.
Kurt Busch may not have been a true championship threat in those years, but whether he was racing for SHR, Chip Ganassi Racing, or 23XI Racing, he found ways to get back to victory lane. Unfortunately, Kurt’s racing career had an abrupt end after he suffered a concussion in a crash at Pocono three years ago. If he had been able to keep going, it would not have been surprising to see him win another race or two. Yet as good as Busch was, another win or two probably would have been his ceiling.
Even Gordon could not stay at the top of his game forever. His 21st season was 2013, and it had plenty of ups and downs. His top five total (eight) was his lowest since 2005. His only win came at Martinsville Speedway near the end of the year. Gordon was even a surprise addition to the playoffs after the fallout from “Spingate” in the final regular season race. When Gordon won Martinsville, he was only 27 points behind Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson, and it appeared that he might still have a shot at a fifth championship. However, a crash in the next race ended Gordon’s title hopes.
But longtime fans will remember that Gordon’s “Drive for Five” did not end there. He came back stronger in 2014, winning four times and leading the points for most of the regular season. In 2015, Gordon’s final full-time year, he earned another clutch victory at Martinsville and advanced to the championship race. Gordon may not have been the same driver he was in the late 1990s, but he went out competing for championships.
Getting back to Kyle Busch, the trends of the competitors who came before him reveal what might be in store for Kyle for the rest of his career. Barring a major improvement from RCR, it is unlikely that he will win or contend for another title. Yet Harvick, Gordon, and Kurt Busch all won races beyond their 21st seasons, even though their careers did not last much longer. Even if Kyle Busch’s career ends in the next few seasons, do not be surprised if he captures a few more victories on the way out.
Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past eight years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.