Following a historic and unconventional weekend in Mexico City would be a tough ask for any racing facility in the country.
Thankfully, the NASCAR Cup Series is going to a track that is anything but conventional. Nestled deep in the eponymous mountains, resides the three turn Pocono Raceway, known affectionately as the “Tricky Triangle.”
As you can tell, this is one of my favorite tracks on the schedule due to its unique layout that combines elements from many different historic facilities around the United States.
It has provided many great races over the years and in turn there are some great opportunities to make some money from fantasy and betting.
Picking Denny Hamlin is the obvious way to go here.
He’s the all-time leader in wins at Pocono and he is always a force to be reckoned with there. Outside of Hamlin, I would stick with drivers who excel on flat short and intermediate tracks.
Stay away from dark horses this week. Horsepower and straight line speed are as important as handling and balance due to Pocono’s long straightaways.
Also look to add the teams who excel at fuel efficiency. There have been a large number of races here that have been decided by that.
Fantasy/Betting Breakdown: 2025 Viva Mexico 250
Right On The Money | Lick Your Wounds |
Cole Custer: 54 points scored | Kyle Busch: -22.0 points scored |
Chase Elliott: 51.4 points scored | Daniel Suarez: 15 points scored |
William Byron: 53.3 points scored | Tyler Reddick (+225) to finish top three: finished 20th |
First off, atta boy to Custer! First time on the column and he was the leading scorer.
Thanks to his performance, I salvaged a top-10 finish in my group. I just wish I had Shane van Gisbergen instead of Suarez or Busch. The less said about what keeps happening to poor KFB, the better.
2025 DraftKings Rules of the Road
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.
However, many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.
Fantasy Forecast
Denny Hamlin ($11,000)
You knew he was going to be here, but here he is.
The closest thing you could ever have to a no brainer, Hamlin leads all drivers in wins at Pocono and pretty much every other statistical category you can fathom.
And those records go all the way back to the Gen 4 era. But, that doesn’t matter so much. Had he not been disqualified in 2022, he’d had three-straight wins here and the Next Gen car just suits him at this place.
He’s also somewhat rested after taking the week off due the birth of his fifth child. I say somewhat only because I know how much work a new baby can be, but I don’t expect any rust.
Hamlin may not win, but I expect him to be at least second or third when the checkered flag waves.
Joey Logano ($9,200)
I don’t think there’s anybody in the garage who manages their resources like Joey Logano.
The three-time champion is famous for snaking away wins from much faster cars, and after his abysmal performance in Mexico, he’ll be looking to bounce back in a big way.
He’s a former winner here and of course, Team Penske is known for power from their engine department. It also helps that he’s really good on flat tracks such as Phoenix Raceway and he’s a former winner here.
I predict a top-five run for him this Sunday.
Ross Chastain ($9,000)
Some people may be worried about the Melon Man after he faded late at Mexico.
I’m not. I think this is a footnote in the summer of Trackhouse Racing.
Ross Chastain doesn’t have numbers that jump off the page here at Pocono. After all, his best finish was a 13th-place effort back in 2023.
But this season has seen a smart and methodical version of him that I think is signaling a shift in his chances at places that he doesn’t run usually run well.
Look for a not so sneaky top ten from driver No. 1.
Chase Briscoe ($7,900)
I’m telling you, I like what I see out of this team as of late
Chase Briscoe dragged this car to a top 10 in Mexico and he’s been a dead ringer for Ryan Newman when it comes to qualifying sessions this season.
He’s won a career-high four poles this season, which bodes well for him, considering that having some really good track position is a key to success here.
While he struggles to maintain that track position, I think he’ll keep most of it this week and convert it to a top ten result.
Alex Bowman ($7,400)
Well, would you look at that.
Alex Bowman was able to avoid hitting anything for the first time in around a month and he walked away with a top five at Mexico.
It’s hard to say whether he’s shaken off the bad luck, but it’s a step in the right direction. And of course, as I always say, momentum is king.
After all, he did win here back in 2021 by outlasting Kyle Larson and managing his tires and fuel. Bowman won’t be that fortunate Sunday.
But I think he’ll get a top 15 nonetheless.
John Hunter Nemechek ($5,200)
John Hunter Nemechek was spectacular down in Mexico, scoring 64 points and grabbing yet another top ten finish.
I know that I said to stay away from dark horses, but I’m starting to not consider this driver as a dark horse. When you grab six top 10s in a season, you’re far from an underdog.
Plus, he’s been able to win here before in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. A top ten here isn’t super likely, but neither were the other six he already has.
Any finish in the top 20 is worth the price.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Chase Elliott (+150) vs. Ryan Blaney (-110): What a H2H this is! The two most popular drivers in the sport both have wins at Pocono, though Elliott’s victory was a little controversial back in 2022. I really think that podium in Mexico could be a launching pad for Elliott to be his old self. Take Elliott in this one.
- SVG to finish top 10: Now this might be the longest of shots, but if there’s an oval he can succeed on outside of the drafting tracks, I think it Pocono. It takes a lot of shifting and discipline to get around this place, and SVG put it all on display with that win last week.
- Hamlin (+450) to win: I already elaborated on this in the fantasy section, but dare I say it, this may finally be that championship year for one of the greatest to ever do it. He’ll need playoff points to do that though, and I think he’ll rack up some more with a win this week and you will be rewarded with some hard earned cash as a result.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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