Top Dog: Michael McDowell
Bienvenidos a La Casa de Los Desvalidos!
The NASCAR Cup Series ventured across the Southern border to Mexico for the first time in its history, marking the first international points race since 1958, as it took to the road course of Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez.
A road course wields enough potential for a wild card winner to burst onto the playoff scene, but a race at a new road course? That opens a whole new can of worms.
However, the result wasn’t much to be surprised about, as Shane van Gisbergen had the Cup field eating his dust (and mist) en route to a dominant victory.
Typically, van Gisbergen is listed here on The Underdog House, yet, his road course prowess displaces his underdog standing at the rights and lefts of NASCAR.
With that, it was Michael McDowell taking home the top dog honors with a fifth-place finish, his first top five of the season.
If you were to list the sport’s road course ringers, McDowell would make a strong argument to be included on that list, even if he holds just one victory on the track type. His career has been spent with underfunded or developing teams, yet he has five top fives and 11 top 10s in his last 18 road course starts.
After the race went under the yellow flag quickly due to rain, teams switched to the wet-weather tires, and McDowell fired off from fifth, climbing to fourth by the end of stage one. The No. 71 team opted to stay out under the stage caution, allowing McDowell to usurp the lead. McDowell quickly lost the lead to Daniel Suarez, pitting a few laps later to switch back to slick tires. He would stay out while others tried to flip stage two, earning six more stage points in fifth.
The 40-year-old avoided disaster when he cut through turn 1, fortunately facing no penalty. From there, McDowell held steady inside the top 10, passing drivers who had to save fuel, and ultimately scoring a top five in the Cup Series’ inaugural trip to Mexico City.
It was a strong points day for McDowell, and if you were to look at the standings, he is sitting 16th in points. All is well, right?
Unfortunately for McDowell and Co., van Gisbergen’s win, along with Josh Berry‘s win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway earlier this year, only hurt McDowell, as they leapfrogged the non-winners on the playoff grid. As it stands, McDowell sits 18th in the playoff standings, 43 points below the cut line.
It is a demanding but surmountable gap for McDowell to overcome. The problem stands in the fact that he still only has two top 10s this year, and there are plenty of opportunities for more upset winners.
The good news? He won at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in 2023, and three of the next eight races on the schedule will feature twists and turns. Keep an eye out for the veteran in the coming weeks.
Notable Underdog Runs
Just missing out on a top five was John Hunter Nemechek, who carried the banner for Legacy Motor Club, an underrated storyline surrounding the team’s drastic improvement this season.
For much of the day, Nemechek looked as though he was off-road racing, getting off course in stage one before contact turned him around in stage two. Starting 32nd didn’t help matters, as Nemechek was mired deep in the pack for most of the race.
Fortunes turned after a 14th-place stage two finish, as Nemechek stayed out following the stage, restarting just outside the top 10. It didn’t take long for him to reach that mark, climbing into the top 10 before pitting one final time. A lap 64 caution nearly derailed his efforts, but he restarted back in the top 10, climbing as high as fourth over the final run before falling to sixth.
If there was a ‘Most Improved Driver’ award, Nemechek would have to be on that list, already besting his career-best top 10 total in a single season with his fifth of the year.
In eighth, Cole Custer pieced together one of his best performances of the season as Haas Factory Team has slowly put the nuts and bolts together of the re-branded operation. With the exception of flipping stages, the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion ran inside the top 15 for the majority of the day, including a top 10 run for most of the final stage. With the top 10, Haas has its first top 10 since re-branding from the former Stewart-Haas Racing organization.
Drawing from Disney’s Aladdin, Mexico City had to feel like ‘a whole new world’ for road course ringers below the cut line. AJ Allmendinger joined van Gisbergen in licking his lips at the sweet taste of victory lane. However, Allmendinger is likely ready to return to the States and back to the normal routine following the event.
On lap 8, Allmendinger was running seventh when Kyle Busch lost control entering turn 1, collecting several cars, including Allmendinger.
Allmendinger was behind the eight ball for the remainder of the race, fighting tire rubs and chaotic restarts to keep pressing forward. After the team finally cleared the fender from the tire, and Allmendinger was able to maneuver through traffic, ultimately salvaging a 13th-place finish. However, the damage had been done with van Gisbergen’s victory, as Allmendinger slipped to 19th on the playoff grid, 45 points behind the cut line.
Meanwhile, the Carson Hocevar–Ricky Stenhouse Jr. feud is not over. After tensions appeared to settle last week at Michigan International Speedway, the two tangled once again, leading to Stenhouse confronting Hocevar after the race. Hocevar’s nonchalant personality and aggression have certainly become topics of interest this season, but with Stenhouse’s declining position in the standings, it could come back to haunt him later on.
Underdog Power Rankings
1. Allmendinger (+2): A 13th-place finish was far from what the road-course savvy Allmendinger aspired for, but underwhelming days from his peers above him helped propel the Kaulig driver to the top spot. Allmendinger has a pair of top 10s in 24 starts at Pocono Raceway, with his last two finishes producing results of 21st and 17th.
2. McDowell (+2): van Gisbergen dashed the winning hopes of McDowell as well, but his first top five of the season comes at a crucial point to keep him in the race to the playoffs. The Phoenix, Ariz., native also possesses a pair of top 10s at The Tricky Triangle, finishing sixth at Pocono in 2022.
3. Hocevar (-2): After weeks of raw speed and misfortune, Hocevar and the No. 77 team hit a mulligan in Mexico City, adding to what has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde kind of year for the sophomore driver. His lone appearance at Pocono resulted in a 17th-place finish, something he could easily exceed if things fall his way.
4. Stenhouse (-2): After sitting above the playoff cut line with no showing worse than 25th through the Coca-Cola 600, the last three weeks have been anything but kind to Stenhouse, whose irk with Hocevar was only heightened in Mexico. Now in desperate need of regaining his footing to stay connected to the playoff battle, Stenhouse heads to Pocono, a track where he has a lone top 10 in 21 starts, though that came a short while ago in 2023.
5. Nemechek (NR): Already surpassing his top 10 total from 2024, Nemechek has been no slouch in displaying LMC’s resurgence this year. Had a few other races gone smoother, he could be one of the underdogs trying to sneak his way into a playoff spot. Regardless, he heads to the Pocono Mountains in search of his first top 10 at the track in his fourth try.
Top Dog Bracket Challenge
(8) Erik Jones (16th) defeats (1) Stenhouse Jr. (27th)
(2) Allmendinger (13th) defeats (7) Zane Smith (35th)
(14) Custer (eighth) defeats (6) Todd Gilliland (22nd)
(13) Riley Herbst (29th) defeats (5) Hocevar (34th)
Small Team Scheme of the Week
Hocevar’s ride was certainly ‘muy vibrante,’ perfectly fitted for the Mexican culture.
With a purple base and bright colors assorted over the car, the scheme certainly spoke volumes, though it ended up for a wild ride more than once.
Entering his fifth year with Frontstretch, Luken Glover is the author of The Underdog House, shedding light on the motivation and performance of NASCAR's dark horse teams as they strive to fight to the top. Additionally, Glover reports for the site at various events, and he contributes in the video editing department.
A 2023 graduate of the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is a middle school math and PE teacher, as well as a basketball coach. He is passionate about serving in his church, playing/coaching a wide variety of sports, and researching motorsports history.