Through the Gears is back for another episode, taking the best picks for the first of two races at Martinsville Speedway.
Last weekend, top 10s by Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger and Ryan Preece were able to carry a 2.7-unit profit after the favorite Kyle Larson got the job done for his first win of his 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season, almost completing the weekend sweep in the process.
Heading into Martinsville, there’s a new favorite in town. His name? Ryan Blaney.
Coming in at +450 odds, Blaney has won back-to-back races in Martinsville in the fall race. Blaney’s average finish at the track in the Next Gen era is 3.5 while his Team Penske teammate Joey Logano at +1,100 odds sits second best with an average finish of 5.2.
However, Penske hasn’t been the team that has dominated in the spring in races past.
The team that owns Martinsville during this time of year is Hendrick Motorsports. Hendrick has won each of the spring races in the Next Gen era, two with William Byron (+800 odds) in 2022 and 2024 and once with last week’s winner Larson (+600 odds).
The third of the dominant Hendrick bunch is Chase Elliott at +800 odds. Elliott notched a win in the fall 2020 race to help clinch his lone Cup title, and he was in the mix for the win with his aforementioned teammates last year when Hendrick ran its 40th anniversary schemes.
What I like most about this bunch is that I was able to find a nice deal that puts a fair amount of allocation on these three drivers. FanDuel is offering a +195 odds special for either Larson, Byron or Elliott to win. I’m dropping the hammer on this bet due to the dominance this team has had in this race in the past.
Bowman, the fourth of the Hendrick bunch, sits at +2,500 odds. While he has a win at Martinsville in fall 2019, I’m still not ready to take him for the win quite yet, but I’m still riding his top 10 prop bet for the third week in a row, taking him at +105 odds.
The Toyotas only have one win in the Next Gen era, with Christopher Bell (+1,100 odds) in the fall of 2022. The other driver to come close was Bell’s teammate Denny Hamlin (+750 odds), who has four top fives in six Next Gen races. Chase Briscoe (+1,400) has the best average finish of the Toyota drivers, sitting at 8.7.
What strikes me is some of the underdog value picks down the order who have had great races down the stretch. Las Vegas Motor Speedway winner Josh Berry, a victor at Martinsville in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, enters with +3,000 odds with a Wood Brothers Racing No. 21 Ford with Penske support. Berry already capitalized at a track he was strong at in Sin City. I could see him do the same thing at Martinsville this weekend.
With +3,500 odds, Preece comes into Martinsville with some nice momentum. Riding two straight top 10s, Preece could potentially play a factor in battling for the win there. Martinsville is also the site of his lone pole in the Cup Series, something to consider when it comes to the pole betting markets.
Finally, another driver riding consistency into the weekend is 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace with +3,500 odds. Wallace finished fourth in last year’s Martinsville spring race, and with his momentum, he could turn that into a win this weekend. If he doesn’t win, his top five (+400 odds) and top 10 (+120 odds) chances are great options as well.
Listen to TTG here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Wyatt Watson has followed motorsports closely since 2007. He joined Frontstretch as a journalist in February 2023 after serving in the United States Navy for five years as an Electronic Technician Navigation working on submarines. Wyatt is one of Frontstretch's primary IndyCar correspondents, providing exclusive video content on site. He hosts Frontstretch's Through the Gears podcast and occasionally The Pit Straight.You can find Wyatt's written work in columns such as Friday Faceoff and 2-Headed Monsteras well as exclusive IndyCar features. Wyatt also contributes to Frontstretch's social media team, posting unique and engaging content for Frontstretch.
Wyatt Watson can be found on X @WyattWRacing