Up to Speed: Stage Points Are Saving Austin Cindric

Last year, Austin Cindric’s fast start to the NASCAR Cup Series season quickly fizzled. He and the No. 2 team began with two strong performances on drafting tracks, one of which ended in a top five. Then the wheels fell off and Cindric did not finish better than 15th for the next 12 races. The slump ended shockingly when he won at World Wide Technology Raceway, the second victory of his Cup career. 

This season, Cindric already has two top-10 finishes through six races, and it feels like he should have a few more. He was out front with four laps to go in the scheduled distance at Atlanta Motor Speedway last month, but a crash on the backstretch ruined his day. After leading 47 laps, he had to settle for 28th.

At Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday (March 23), Cindric did not have the dominant pace of teammate Ryan Blaney, but he had a solid top-10 car and was in position for a good finish. Then Blaney lost an engine on lap 208, sending a plume of smoke into the South Florida sky. The leaders came to pit road to make their final stops of the day. Cindric was too fast and got nabbed for speeding in the pits, forcing him to restart deep in the field. He only managed to get back to 19th by the time the checkered flag flew, another finish that was not indicative of how he ran.

The other factor complicating Cindric’s season is the fallout from his incident with Ty Dillon at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). During the opening laps of the race, Dillon ran Cindric off course in the last turn. Cindric responded by spinning Dillon around on the frontstretch. Dillon’s car received only minor damage and the race stayed green. However, NASCAR determined that Cindric intentionally hooked Dillon in the right rear fender. Similar altercations over the last few years have resulted in a suspension for the driver who caused the incident, though none of the previous examples occurred at a road course. NASCAR seemed to take that into account a few days later when it penalized Cindric. He was not suspended, but he was docked 50 points and fined $50,000. The loss of points dropped Cindric to 35th in the standings.

In the three races since the penalty, Cindric has clawed his way back to 21st in points. That is a respectable recovery when you consider that his only top 10 in that stretch is a sixth place at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Even with the penalty, Cindric is still within striking distance of the playoffs thanks to the stage points that he has earned in 2025. He has earned 44 of them through six races, a total that does not include an additional 10 points for winning his Daytona 500 qualifying race in a nail-biter finish over Erik Jones. With the Daytona Duel bonus points accounted for, Cindric has earned more extra points (54) than anyone else in the field except for Bubba Wallace (61), Blaney (69), and points leader William Byron (70). The No. 2 team’s early season speed has essentially canceled out the COTA penalty. 

The big question now facing Cindric and his team is where to go from here. Do they keep trying to pile up stage points as opportunities arise, assuming that the points will safeguard them against bad days? Or does the No. 2 team lean into its improved speed and go for a win that would potentially clinch a spot in the playoffs?

So far, the stage point strategy has worked well for all of Team Penske. Blaney is currently 10th in overall points despite three straight DNFs. Joey Logano, who has 45 stage points plus another six from the Daytona Duels, is two points behind Blaney in 11th. Logano does not have a single top-10 finish in 2025, but he too has benefitted from collecting stage points early in the season.

Yet Cindric’s situation is still more precarious than those of his teammates. Blaney and Logano have combined to win the last three Cup Series championships. They are week-to-week contenders for wins, and both will likely score a victory between now and the start of the playoffs.

In Cindric’s case, it is harder to confidently say that he will win a race before the postseason begins. Although he and the No. 2 team have shown improvement this season, Cindric still does not look like a bona fide weekly threat for wins like Blaney and Logano. His best chances to earn a victory will be at road courses and drafting tracks, of which there are seven before the postseason begins. It would not be surprising, for instance, to see Cindric win at Daytona International Speedway in August and punch his ticket to the playoffs with his last possible opportunity. But it would be foolish to rely on a strategy like that completely.

Falling back on stage points alone could be problematic for Cindric too. Last year, the two drivers who reached the playoffs on points were Ty Gibbs and Martin Truex Jr. Gibbs scored 118 stage points during the regular season, and Truex earned 175. If Cindric continues on his current pace and earns about seven stage points per race, he will end the regular season with around 190 stage points, a total that exceeds all but three drivers from the 2024 regular season. However, if Cindric continues to earn about 20 total points per race, as he has averaged through 2025, he will end the regular season with around 524 points. That total falls far below what Gibbs (702) and Truex (696) needed to get into the postseason last year.

Ultimately, the goal for Cindric and his team going forward should be to finish races closer to where they run. There is always a chance that the No. 2 team could show up with a good car, catch a few breaks, and score a win like pseudo-teammate Josh Berry did at Las Vegas. Yet if that does not happen, stage points alone will not get Cindric to the playoffs. He and his team appear better positioned to challenge for a playoff spot than last season. However, the No. 2 must strive toward putting complete races together, and that is one thing that has not changed for Cindric since 2024.