NASCAR takes its lone trip down to South Florida early this season to race in the Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and Through the Gears gets you set up with the best bets for the second intermediate race of the season.
Last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway saw our winning streak come to end at the hands of Josh Berry taking his first win in the NASCAR Cup Series. Who can we pick going into Homestead who can break through to deliver a win for both them and our pocketbooks?
The favorite going into the weekend is none other than Kyle Larson with the same odds to win as last weekend at +450 (a bet of $10 wins $55). He won the first race in the Next Gen car in 2022 and was on pace to do so again before crashing into the sand barrels in 2023. He ran well in the past for most of his career, adding four other top-five finishes at the track in his career and leading 626 laps.
In his last race at the track, he raced Ryan Blaney for the lead with 13 laps to go, and by the end of the race, he finished the race 13th. If Larson can keep it straight this year, he’ll be hard to beat on Sunday, and running triple duty in both the NASCAR Xfinity Series and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series can help the Elk Grove, Calif., native will certainly help his chances more than harm them.
Watch as Kyle Larson (@KyleLarsonRacin) drifts his car but avoids completely spinning and making contact with the wall during Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series playoff race at Homestead-Miami Speedway! pic.twitter.com/5TfVWlE91E
— JBS Racing (@JBSRacing_) October 29, 2024
However, the books seemingly discounted a couple of drivers in the due to Larson’s favoritism on their boards. Off the bat, Blaney and Tyler Reddick, two of the three who battled late for the win last season, only sit at +600 and +650 odds, respectively. Reddick led the most laps in 2024 and made the last-lap pass on Blaney for the win, while Blaney was at the right place at the right time late and almost capitalized on it.
WHAT A WILD FINAL TWO LAPS AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI.
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) October 27, 2024
Relive the battle for the win between Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin for a spot in the NASCAR championship race. pic.twitter.com/JfLU59krvx
The third driver of that duo was Denny Hamlin, who the books have settled now at +1,200 odds, down from 1,300 earlier in the week. Hamlin, a three-time winner at Homestead, has ran well in the past, leading 52 laps in the last two races and winning six poles in his career. He was on track for a great finish in 2023 before a crash due to a mechanical issue took him out of contention. Hamlin has seemed to make good speed in almost any car he’s run in at Homestead in his career, and his odds feels like a great number to take action on heading into the weekend.
William Byron and Christopher Bell, both former winners at Homestead, round out the true favorites for the race at +850 and +900 odds, respectively. While Byron’s win was all the way back in 2021, Bell’s was more recent in 2023, and Byron and Bell finished fourth and fifth, respectively, in last year’s race.
After Berry’s unfathomable win last weekend, I’m taking a risk this week and looking further into the odds board for winners. How about Carson Hocevar sitting at +5,000? He finished ninth in last season’s race at Homestead, and the second-year driver dominated to a victory in the Truck Series in 2023 that propelled him to a Championship 4 appearance. If anyone can make a surprise on Sunday, Hocevar might the driver to do it.
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Wyatt Watson has followed motorsports closely since 2007. He joined Frontstretch as a journalist in February 2023 after serving in the United States Navy for five years as an Electronic Technician Navigation working on submarines. Wyatt is one of Frontstretch's primary IndyCar correspondents, providing exclusive video content on site. He hosts Frontstretch's Through the Gears podcast and occasionally The Pit Straight.You can find Wyatt's written work in columns such as Friday Faceoff and 2-Headed Monsteras well as exclusive IndyCar features. Wyatt also contributes to Frontstretch's social media team, posting unique and engaging content for Frontstretch.
Wyatt Watson can be found on X @WyattWRacing