If you look ahead to the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, you might notice some subtle but significant changes to this season’s schedule.
The first round includes a stop at World Wide Technology Raceway (WWTR) at Gateway, which will mark the first time that this track holds a postseason race. New Hampshire Motor Speedway returns to the playoffs for the first time since 2017, shifting its lone Cup Series race to the second round. Another notable change is that Talladega Superspeedway’s fall race now falls during the Round of 8.
However, the rest of the playoffs will look familiar, including the final Round of 8 race at Martinsville Speedway and the championship-deciding race once again at Phoenix Raceway.
Given the venues selected for the 2025 Cup Series postseason, anyone who hopes to win the championship will have to be fast on flat tracks. Gone are the days when many playoff races were contested on 1.5-mile intermediate tracks.
It used to be an oft-repeated philosophy, especially during the height of Jimmie Johnson’s career, that the eventual champion would be the driver who was strongest on the intermediate tracks. Even though places like Phoenix, Martinsville and New Hampshire hosted Chase or playoff races annually, the conventional wisdom was that since “cookie cutters” outnumbered the flatter “oddballs” in the postseason, a team’s time and effort were better served maximizing performance on the intermediates.
However, around five years ago, NASCAR made a long overdue effort to shake up the Cup Series schedule. Phoenix replaced Homestead-Miami Speedway as the season-finale race. Martinsville shifted from the first race in the Round of 8 to the last. These changes alone gave flat-track performance a greater influence in determining that champion.
Meanwhile, Homestead has bounced in and out of the playoffs and will not host a postseason race in 2025. Texas Motor Speedway, a long-time late-season staple, has cycled out of the playoffs for now. Charlotte Motor Speedway’s fall race remains on the ROVAL configuration. Now, with WWTR added to the playoffs and New Hampshire returning, flat tracks will be more important than ever.
Flat-track success has already played a major role in Team Penske winning the last three championships. Joey Logano’s two most recent championships, in 2024 and 2022, hinged on the No. 22 team’s superior performance at Phoenix. In between those two titles was Ryan Blaney’s championship, which also came down to him beating the remaining title contenders at Phoenix. If any of the three Penske drivers, Logano, Blaney or Austin Cindric, reach the championship race in 2025, they would have to be the odds-on favorites to hoist the Bill France Cup.
Penske’s flat-track speed is not even limited to Phoenix alone. Martinsville has been a key track for both Blaney and Logano.
In 2023, Blaney went to the fall Martinsville race in a precarious spot, only 10 points above the cut line in the Round of 8. With his title hopes on the line, Blaney captured the victory at Martinsville and secured his place in the championship round. Fast forward to last year, and Blaney’s situation was even more desperate. Sitting 38 points below the cutoff, he and the No. 12 team had little chance of advancing without a victory. Yet Blaney won Martinsville again, and the only thing that stopped him from repeating as a champion was Logano.
Logano, of course, won the fall Martinsville race in 2018, a victory that was essential to winning his first championship.
New Hampshire has not been a Penske stronghold in recent years, but WWTR undoubtedly has. Logano won the inaugural Cup race there in 2022. The following season, The Captain’s team missed out on the victory at WWTR to Kyle Busch, but Logano and Blaney both placed in the top 10. Last year, Blaney appeared to have the victory well in hand, only to run out of gas in sight of the white flag and get passed by Cindric for the win.
There should be no question that Penske is the team to beat at WWTR, and a favorable playoff schedule will make Blaney and Logano serious championship contenders once again.
Fans should not anticipate a major shift in which teams battle for the championship. Nine of the last 10 titles have been won by Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. A driver from one of those organizations will likely be the 2025 Cup Series champion. The real question is whether Hendrick and Gibbs can keep up with Penske on the flat tracks.
Hendrick, theoretically, will be in a good position to compete. The team has the ability and resources to win on every type of track on the Cup Series circuit, and Martinsville has always been an important track for Hendrick.
Yet Phoenix, New Hampshire and WWTR are another matter. Hendrick has not won a race at New Hampshire since Kasey Kahne’s victory in 2012. Kyle Larson holds the team’s only top five at WWTR through three races. Phoenix has been a bit better for Hendrick with Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron all winning there within the last five years, but there is room for improvement if the organization hopes to keep up with Penske.
Gibbs has also lost a little speed after being the number one flat track team of the 2010s. A decade ago, Denny Hamlin was one of the few drivers who could go toe-to-toe with Hendrick at Martinsville. Matt Kenseth was a force to be reckoned with in a JGR Toyota at New Hampshire. And while nobody could touch Kevin Harvick at Phoenix, Busch, Hamlin and Kenseth all had wins for Gibbs on the one-mile oval.
The addition of more flat tracks in the playoffs makes Christopher Bell JGR’s biggest championship threat in 2025. Four of Bell’s nine Cup Series wins have come at either New Hampshire, Phoenix or Martinsville, and he was on the doorstep of a win at WWTR last year until his engine started failing in the final laps. Compare him to Hamlin, who has won 17 races in the last five seasons but none at any of those four tracks. Perhaps the continued growth of Ty Gibbs and the addition of past Phoenix winner Chase Briscoe will help JGR recover some of its flat-track mojo.
Although there is no single factor that will determine the 2025 Cup Series champion, flat tracks will play an important role in this year’s title race. Fast, well-handling cars at the lowest-banked tracks have been crucial to Team Penske’s playoff success the past three seasons. With more flat track races in the postseason this year, championship hopefuls will have to find a way to beat Penske at its own game or watch The Captain walk away with another title.
Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past eight years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.