1. This Will Go Down as the Year of the Big Calls (By NASCAR)
When the NASCAR Cup Series championship race takes place this weekend at Phoenix Raceway, there’s a 50% chance that the driver who claims the season crown will be wearing it due to a decision by the sport’s governing body.
Notice I didn’t say “only” there, because that would be disrespectful to what Joey Logano and William Byron have done this season. Both have three wins on the year, as many as anyone not named Kyle Larson, so it’s not like they were driving around in the midpack for months.
But the fact remains that Logano would have fallen short of the Round of 8 if not for a penalty to Alex Bowman at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL. While Hendrick Motorsports came out on the short end of that decision, it sure didn’t at Martinsville Speedway, which is why Byron will race for a championship and Christopher Bell will not.
There aren’t too many similarities between the rulings that cost Bowman and Bell. One was an equipment issue while the other centered on an on-track move. Yet neither was clear cut and the decision to disqualify Bell for wall-riding was absolutely a judgment call on NASCAR’s part.
If Ryan Blaney or Tyler Reddick end up winning at Phoenix, it’s something of a “no harm, no foul” situation. Still, it’s hard to imagine that 2024 won’t always be remembered as the season when NASCAR intervened to directly shape the direction of the last two rounds of the playoffs, for better or for worse.
2. It Could Also Be the Last Playoffs Ever (But Probably Not)
The other aspect of the storm of questionable penalty calls over the past few weeks (and we didn’t even talk about the potential Chevrolet team orders deal at Martinsville that benefited Byron) is that it might be the gift that fans who have been praying for the downfall of the playoffs have been seeking.
Brad Keselowski, for one, thinks so.
To be clear, it doesn’t seem likely that some grumbling from fans would cause NASCAR to completely reconsider the way it decides a champion, or else the playoffs never would have lasted even this long.
How about from the teams and drivers? Uh, no, not with the way NASCAR has been flexing its muscle over all of them with the charter situation.
Let’s assume, though, just for a minute, that NASCAR was already leaning toward looking at ending the playoffs. It’s more believable to think that it could decide this whole mess is the last bit of persuasion it needs to try something else.
It’s worth remembering that the 2025 schedule is already set, playoffs and all, so if anything this could be the penultimate edition. There’s no question it just got harder to defend the system as is, and maybe that’s something that the people in charge are thinking too.
3. Ryan Blaney May Not Want the Playoffs to Go, Though
Why would the 2023 Cup Series champion want things to change just when he’s got it all figured out? After a heartbreaking last-lap defeat at Homestead-Miami Speedway, all Ryan Blaney did was drive his butt off down the stretch at Martinsville in a must-win situation to ensure he made his way back to the Championship 4.
(Blissfully unaware of anything else going on, as it turns out.)
Oh, by the way, Blaney did this same thing last year: second at Homestead Miami-Speedway followed by a victory at Martinsville. He came home second at Phoenix, which was enough to claim the championship.
It’s very difficult to land on an agreed-upon definition of clutch in any sport, but Blaney’s late playoffs prowess certainly fits the bill. Barring an accident not of his making or an equipment failure of some sort, he figures to be in the mix this weekend to become the first repeat champ since Jimmie Johnson.
And if he pulls that off and wants the playoffs to remain just the way they are now, who would blame him?
4. Will This Championship Feel Less Exciting Because of the Chaos?
Just as it’s hard to measure how clutch someone is, it’s equally difficult to quantify the excitement level for a big sporting event. Like, say, the Cup Series championship race.
Phoenix is going to be packed. Fans of the drivers still alive should be at full throat, as English football announcers describe lively crowds.
As for everyone else, that’s harder to say. It’s not hard to imagine that some people will just say they’re washing their hands of this entire situation and skip watching the race on TV.
There will be a way to quantify that, of course, since ratings will tell the story. But as to whether the vibes will be off for championship weekend, maybe we need to send some Gen Zers to the desert to report back.
5. One of the Penske Drivers Will (Probably) Win the Championship This Sunday
Predictions are pretty sad when you hedge them, but I’m doing it anyway.
Here’s my thinking in a nutshell: Despite the year he’s had, Reddick winning would be a surprise. He’s had some moments in spring Phoenix races, but he’s been pretty awful over the four years the track has hosted the final race, with an average finish over 20.
You could talk me into Byron, who has finished sixth and fourth in the finale the past two years. He’ll need to find a few more spots to improve for a real chance.
That leaves Blaney and Logano. The former is an ace at this particular race, finishing no worse than sixth since 2020. Logano has been a lot more up and down … but he’s also actually won the Phoenix finale, something none of his challengers have done.
Thus, the hedge. A Team Penske Ford will celebrate Sunday, I just don’t know which one. That should add some extra intrigue to the whole affair, even if it does turn out the vibes are off.
