Sunday’s (Oct. 27) NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway had everything a fan could ask for.
The ability to pass? Check. Comers and goers? Of course. Unique pit strategies under green to maximize tires and lap time? Wouldn’t be a Homestead race without them.
The race saw a Homestead Cup record 33 lead changes, breaking the previous mark of 26 set in 2011. The race, which had an exciting battle for the lead all day, came down to a seven-lap shootout for the ages, with three different leaders in the final three laps and a superhuman effort from Tyler Reddick on the final lap to win and clinch his first ever appearance in the Championship 4.
What’s going to be forgotten from all the storylines this weekend (and rightfully so) is the fact that Reddick went on to win after starting on the pole.
You may be asking why that’s such a big deal. The odds say that a winning car has a great chance of qualifying first, so why is it important?
It’s important because Reddick’s win ended a brutal stretch of races where winning the pole was more of a curse than a blessing.
Between Ross Chastain’s win at Nashville Superspeedway in 2023 and Reddick’s win at Homestead last weekend was a 52-race stretch where the polesitter only went on to win once.
Yes, that’s right. Prior to last weekend, the car that started first was 1-for-52 in the last 16 months of Cup racing.
The lone win from the pole during this 52-race stretch was William Byron at Circuit of the Americas in March, and he dominated to the tune of 42 laps led in a 68-lap race where the only cautions were for stage breaks.
It wasn’t a curse with starting toward the front, as the car that started second went on to win 10 races over the same time, more than any other position. Likewise, the third-, fourth- and fifth-place starting spots had at least three winners each in the 52-race span. Drivers had no problem winning while starting second through fifth, but for whatever reason, they were allergic to winning after starting first.
It wasn’t like the polesitters went on to lay eggs on race day during this stretch either. In the 52 races between Chastain’s and Reddick’s wins from the pole, there were a whopping 17 polesitters who led the most laps in their respective races.
Only one of them went on to win.
| Driver | Race | Laps Led | Finish |
| Ross Chastain | 2023 Nashville | 99/300 | 1st |
| Aric Almirola | 2023 Atlanta II | 46/185 | 18th |
| William Byron | 2023 Pocono | 60/160 | 14th |
| Chase Briscoe | 2023 Daytona II | 67/163 | 30th |
| Christopher Bell | 2023 Bristol | 187/500 | 3rd |
| Bubba Wallace | 2023 Texas | 111/267 | 3rd |
| Joey Logano | 2024 Daytona 500 | 45/200 | 32nd |
| Denny Hamlin | 2024 Phoenix I | 68/312 | 11th |
| William Byron | 2024 COTA | 42/68 | 1st |
| Kyle Larson | 2024 Texas | 77/276 | 21st |
| Michael McDowell | 2024 Talladega I | 36/188 | 31st |
| Tyler Reddick | 2024 Darlington I | 174/293 | 32nd |
| Tyler Reddick | 2024 Indianapolis | 40/167 | 2nd |
| Denny Hamlin | 2024 Richmond II | 124/408 | 2nd |
| Ross Chastain | 2024 Watkins Glen | 51/92 | 4th |
| Christopher Bell | 2024 Kansas II | 122/267 | 7th |
| Michael McDowell | 2024 Talladega II | 42/195 | 37th |
| Christopher Bell | 2024 Las Vegas II | 155/267 | 2nd |
| Tyler Reddick | 2024 Homestead | 97/267 | 1st |
Likewise, there were six polesitters in this stretch who went on to finish one spot short of victory, including four this season.
| Driver | Race | Laps Led |
| Denny Hamlin | 2023 Watkins Glen | 3/90 |
| Christopher Bell | 2023 Las Vegas II | 61/267 |
| Kyle Larson | 2024 Martinsville I | 86/415 |
| Tyler Reddick | 2024 Indianapolis | 40/167 |
| Denny Hamlin | 2024 Richmond II | 124/408 |
| Christopher Bell | 2024 Las Vegas II | 155/267 |
The statistical anomaly becomes funnier when realizing just how close to victory several of these drivers had come, only for a cartoon anvil to arrive and crush their hopes and dreams.
Bubba Wallace, Texas Motor Speedway 2023: Led a race-high 111 laps and controlled the final restart with six to go, only to get passed by Byron for the win. Finished third.
Christopher Bell, Las Vegas Motor Speedway II 2023: Led 61 laps and was quickly running down leader Kyle Larson in the closing laps with a full head of steam. Bell was right with Larson on the last dash to the checkered flag, only to get nosed out by 0.082 seconds in the second-closest Cup finish in track history.
Michael McDowell, Talladega Superspeedway I 2024: Went toe-to-toe with Reddick for the lead in the final 10 laps, and he had a clear path to victory when Reddick’s line sputtered out of turn 4. Brad Keselowski (McDowell’s pusher) then ducked high and low against McDowell, who was unable to block in time and spun himself in front of the field in the trioval. Finished 31st.
Reddick, Darlington Raceway I 2024: Led more than half the race and was running second behind Chris Buescher with less than 10 laps to go. Reddick had the faster car but made a poorly timed move in turn 4, which put both cars in the wall and on pit road with flat tires. Finished 32nd.
Denny Hamlin, Nashville 2024: Made what would’ve been the pass for the win on Chastain with seven to go, only for the caution to come out 15 seconds before Hamlin reached the finish line to start the white flag lap. Race devolved into five-overtime madness, and Hamlin had to hit pit road after running out of gas on attempt three. Finished 12th.
Reddick, Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2024: Was quickly running down Larson for the lead in the second overtime, which was a restart where Ryan Preece’s immobilized car sat on the backstretch, unable to move after a spin. Had the caution been called in a proper time, Reddick would’ve had a chance at Larson on the front row in overtime three, but the pair took the white flag. NASCAR then displayed the caution as they rounded turn 1, more than 30 seconds after the wreck initially started.
Hamlin, Richmond Raceway II 2024: It looked like the seas had parted for third-place Hamlin on the final corner of the race after Austin Dillon dumped leader Joey Logano, only for Dillon to veer left and turn Hamlin in the trioval with the checkered flag in sight. Finished second.
Bell, Las Vegas II 2024: Had an untouchable car all day, leading 155 of the first 229 laps. The final stage came down to a pit strategy decision, and Bell tried to track down Logano on fresh tires after making an extra pit stop, only for him to fall one spot (and arguably one lap short) of completing the pass on Logano for the win.
That brings us back to Reddick’s win this weekend, where it looked like a win wasn’t in the cards until the last possible moment. Running in fifth place and well behind the leaders in the final stage, crew chief Billy Scott elected to have Reddick stay out as long as possible in the hopes of getting a caution. He didn’t get one before he hit pit road with 16 to go, but he had just unlapped himself when Larson spun while racing Ryan Blaney for the win with 13 to go.
Reddick cycled back to the lead, albeit on slightly older tires, for the seven-lap shootout and proceeded to lose the lead at the drop of the green flag. He fell back to third and took the white flag in third, only to have a superhuman final lap, blowing right by Hamlin and Blaney with marginally older tires at a track where not having fresh rubber is a death sentence.
With the polesitter curse exemplified by a 52-race stretch where they lost races with dominant cars in every conceivable fashion, it’s only fitting that one of the craziest endings and most improbable comebacks is the race that breaks it.
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Can find on Twitter @stephen_stumpf.