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Michael McDowell Confetti Daytona (Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)

Thinkin’ Out Loud: 2021 Daytona 500

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What happened?

Michael McDowell won the 63rd annual Daytona 500 on Sunday (Feb. 14) after a fiery last-lap wreck for his first career victory in his 358th start.

Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin rounded out the top-five finishers.

How did it happen?

Alex Bowman led the first lap of the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, though it didn’t last long. Derrike Cope, 62, caused the first caution of the day on lap 3 when he got into the wall.

Just a few laps later, the first Big One of the day ensued. Christopher Bell (running third in line on the bottom) got a shove from Kyle Busch and he spun Aric Almirola up and into the field.

16 cars were involved, including potential contenders Bowman, Ryan Blaney, William Byron and more.

The lightning and rain arrived during that second caution, causing a red flag that lasted five hours and 40 minutes before cars re-fired at 9:06 p.m. ET. Cars paraded around the track under caution for over 10 laps to complete the drying before Elliott and Dillon led the field back to green.

It wasn’t long after the restart that Hamlin got to his customary position in front of the field at Daytona. The remaining cars stayed single-file for a bit before Quin Houff ran over a piece of debris deep in the field and wrecked with Chase Briscoe. The field stayed clean for the remainder of the stage one after that restart, with Hamlin winning the first stage of the season.

The second stage began with Austin Cindric sneaking out to the lead for two laps before Hamlin regained control. Everyone seemed content to ride around single-file and log laps in the second stage. With 26 to go in the stage, green-flag pit stops began. The three manufacturers came down on separate laps and Hamlin cycled back to the lead.

Soon after rejoining the track, Bell cut a tire while running near the front. The incident collected six cars – definitely not enough to classify as a Big One, though it still affected plenty of teams.

Hamlin retained the lead on the restart with help from Bubba Wallace. The 17 lead-lap cars rode around single-file until the final laps, as Wallace forced the issue and tried to steal the stage win before settling for third, with Hamlin sweeping the first two stages of the season.

To begin the final stage, Hamlin – who else? – took the lead by driving around Dillon. Once he got out front, there was a close call as he was being pushed by Harvick.

The story of the race continued in the final stage, as the remaining drivers just rode around single-file, with Hamlin leading Harvick, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch. The three manufacturers made their individual green-flag stops again, with the Fords going first, then the Chevys and lastly the Toyotas. Hamlin and the Toyotas got too far out in front following their stops, and the Ford brigade of Logano, Harvick, Cole Custer, Brad Keselowski and McDowell led the way.

No one made a move until the final lap, as Keselowski laid back and got a big run to move into second. He went for the lead, but his teammate Logano blocked and ended up causing a huge accident, which ended the race under caution.

McDowell, Elliott and Dillon snuck by the madness, and McDowell was declared the winner after a scoring review.

It was McDowell’s first career win, and just the third career win for Front Row Motorsports (David Ragan at Talladega in 2013, Chris Buescher at Pocono in 2016).

Who stood out?

McDowell always seems to be around at the end of superspeedway races, so it’s about time he ended up winning. Of McDowell’s 13 career top-10 finishes, seven have come at Daytona. He’s had Daytona 500 finishes of ninth, ninth and fifth prior to Sunday’s victory.

This win is a shocker – no one saw this coming. But maybe we should’ve? He clearly has a capable car at these tracks and a knack for avoiding crashes. And next week, the Cup Series races at a track where McDowell finished 10th last year. 2021 is shaping up to be a career season for the Phoenix, Ariz. native.

Hamlin remains the best superspeedway racer in the sport and it isn’t particularly close right now. At many points throughout the race, it seemed like Hamlin’s car had an extra gear. He routinely flexed his muscles by driving around capable competitors and set the pace for much of the race.

A fifth-place finish looks solid on paper, though Hamlin is clearly unhappy with anything besides a win. He did lead 98 laps, more than he led in the last two Daytona 500s combined. Every time the Cup Series goes to a superspeedway, you have to look at Hamlin as the heavy favorite. He’s just got this package and car figured out.

Dillon continues to establish himself as a consistent threat. He impressed in the Duels on Thursday and backed that up even further with his 500 performance. The No. 3 was frequently running in the front and probably would’ve looked even better if they ran more in a pack rather than single-file. He finished third and fifth in the stages and ended the race third, scoring more points than any driver besides Hamlin.

Who fell flat?

The Daytona 500 continues to haunt Keselowski. The man has won nearly everything in his career, except this race. The Coke 600, Southern 500, Brickyard 400, Bristol Night Race and Cup Series title are all on his resumé – the 500 is the final puzzle piece. He didn’t appear to have the best car Sunday, but a late run looked like it could end in victory.

Keselowski’s career is starting to mirror those of Tony Stewart, Rusty Wallace and others. Major wins, championships and accolades, but the 500 eludes him.

Wallace deserved a better finish, but he’s going to walk away for the season-opener disappointed. The 23XI Racing Toyota was competitive all night long before a vibration after the final stop forced him down pit road again. He was involved in the carnage of the final lap and finished one lap down in 17th.

On the bright side for Wallace, Daytona was a great week for points. He leaves the opening weekend with 41 points, good for eighth in the standings. He’s off to one of the best starts of his young career and can’t get discouraged despite the disappointing finish.

Bell was out of control in a few moments throughout the race, which was disappointing to see from a non-rookie. I know, I know – he led a career-best 32 laps and ran out front before cutting a tire and falling off the pace. But oftentimes he just seemed out of control compared to his competitors. His move triggered the big wreck early in the race, as Bell was pushing at a point in the race where it was absolutely unnecessary. Bell will learn, no doubt about that, it’s just taking longer than most expected. We’ll see how he performs at more traditional tracks before writing him off just yet.

What did this race prove?

We were due for an upset 500 winner, and boy did we get one. Every 10 years we get a stunner. In 2001 it was Michael Waltrip’s first career win, then Trevor Bayne got his first career win in 2011. Right on cue, 2021 delivered another first-time winner. It’s fun to mix things up and see an underdog winner like Waltrip, Bayne and McDowell. Once in a while, it can show just how special winning the Daytona 500 truly is.

An early wreck can set the tone for the entire race. In the past, we’ve seen drivers stay patient in the early going before multiple huge wrecks in the final stage. This year, it was pretty much the opposite. One mistake in the early going caused a massive pileup, and then the race turned into a single-file train until the last lap. From a fan’s perspective, it was likely a disappointing evening after such an insane first 15 laps before the rain.

Paint scheme of the race

The best looking scheme on Sunday was the car that led the field to green (even if we only saw it for 13 laps). Bowman’s first No. 48 Ally Chevy is better looking than any Ally scheme Jimmie Johnson ran in the past few years:

Better than last year?

Last year, the rain played the same games with us. It let us have some fun before dominating the storyline. Luckily we were able to race on Sunday night this year rather than Monday night. In 2020, there were a lot more big wrecks toward the end of the race before the unforgettable ending with Ryan Newman’s crash and Hamlin’s win over Blaney.

Overall, 2020’s race was much better than 2021’s. The action throughout the race was much more intriguing than the single-file parade we saw for much of Sunday night. Drivers didn’t even make a move until the final lap, and at that point it all ended so quickly. The surprise winner was a nice wrinkle – and of course it was great that nobody was escorted to the hospital while unconscious – but Sunday’s race left me wanting more.

Playoff picture

McDowell is the first driver to (essentially) lock himself into the playoffs in 2021. That’s certainly not a sentence I was expecting to write in this column. But here we are! It’s way too early for me to be dissecting the playoff bubble, but here’s a little teaser.

Dillon actually leads the standings after winning his Duel and grabbing 14 stage points in the 500. Just behind him is Hamlin, Harvick, Elliott and McDowell. Some other fun names currently in (extremely too early to take seriously) playoff position: Ryan Preece (sixth), Ross Chastain (11th), Corey LaJoie (12th) and one-off racer Jamie McMurray (14th).

What’s next?

The Cup Series stays in Daytona for a race at the Daytona Road Course next Sunday (Feb. 21) at 3 p.m. on FOX. The O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 will run for 70 laps, with stage breaks coming at lap 16 and lap 34. Next weekend will be the first of a record seven road-course events on the 2021 schedule.

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