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Thinkin’ Out Loud: 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix

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What happened?

Chase Elliott won the 2020 Season Finale 500 at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday (Nov. 8) after leading a race-high 153 laps. More importantly, he won his first NASCAR Cup Series title in his first Championship 4 appearance.

Other title contenders Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin finished second through fourth. Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top five in his final start driving the No. 48.

How did it happen?

Prior to the race, seven-time champion Johnson was honored by nearly everyone at the track before his final full-time start with Hendrick Motorsports.

CHEEK: Jimmie Johnson Says ‘His Heart Is Full’

Before racing began, Elliott surrendered his pole position and started in the back after failing pre-race inspection twice. The No. 9 Chevrolet wasted no time getting to the front, as he carved through to field up to 10th by the lap 30 competition caution. Logano took advantage of Elliott’s penalty to pace the field and led the first 30 laps.

After the pit stops and ensuing restart, Elliott worked his way to the front and joined his competitors in the first four positions. Logano, Hamlin, Elliott and Keselowski set the pace for the remainder of the 75-lap stage, as Logano led all green flag laps to take stage one. 

The action picked up in stage two with Logano, Hamlin and Elliott battling it out for the lead throughout much of the early run. The PJ1 traction compound began to wear off as the track changed, making green-flag stops critical for track position. Logano and Keselowski both complained of vibrations as pit stops neared, and they came with a cost. Keselowski faded to fourth while Logano gave up the lead to Elliott after a valiant effort.

Keselowski pitted before the others, then Logano came before Elliott and Hamlin finally entered together. The No. 2 came out in front due to the short-pit strategy, but Elliott and Hamlin both passed him before a caution came out for James Davison with 30 laps to go in the second stage.

On the restart, Elliott pulled ahead and Keselowski followed close behind. The No. 2 took the lead briefly, then the No. 9 got it back. In an intense last-lap slugfest, Keselowski edged Elliott in the final corner to earn the stage two win.

Elliott took the lead on pit road and pulled away from his competitors on the restart. Logano stayed within a second for most of the run, though he could never get close enough to threaten for the top spot. For most of the run before green flag stops, Elliott, Logano and Keselowski were within one second of each other as Hamlin lost ground in fourth.

With 54 laps remaining, Logano and Hamlin hit pit road. One lap later, Elliott and Keselowski followed. Logano reentered the track with a 1.5-second lead over Elliott, with Hamlin third and Keselowski a distant fourth after a slow stop.

Just eight laps later, Elliott flexed his muscle and got aggressive to pass Logano for the lead. The No. 22 was no match on speed at that point, as his car just didn’t look the same on the final run.

The race stayed green for the entire final stage, allowing Elliott to lead the final 43 laps to win the race and the title. It was Elliott’s fifth win of the season, 11th of his career and first at Phoenix. He closed 2020 with three wins in the final five races, including back-to-back victories to earn his first career title.

With the win, the Elliotts become the third father-son duo to capture Cup Series championships. At age 24, Chase is the third-youngest champion in series history.

Who stood out?

Elliott has cemented himself as one of the sport’s best drivers. Yeah, I’m telling you the champion is one of the sport’s best drivers. Duh. How could he not be? Well, before the season, that wasn’t exactly true. Entering 2020, drivers like Kyle Busch, Harvick, Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano and Martin Truex Jr. were all considered bigger threats. 

Now, Elliott has a five-win season and a championship on his resume. He won a title before Hamlin and now has as many as Harvick, Keselowski, Logano and Truex. As Hendrick Motorsports transitions out of the Jimmie Johnson Era, the 2020s are now looking like it could be the Chase Elliott Era.

STURNIOLO: Alan Gustafson also celebrates first title as Cup crew chief

Speaking of Johnson, he went out in the best way possible with his final start. The No. 48 was fast all day and he ended up the highest of the non-title competitors. Had there been a late-race caution, you have to wonder if there could’ve been a storybook ending for Johnson.

Phoenix was just his fifth top five of the season; Johnson wound up 18th in the final standings. Still, 2020 was a successful final season for the seven-time champion. Why? He had just five top fives combined in 2018 and 2019! His performance was much better after a two-year slump and Johnson went out on a respectable note.

Who fell flat?

I’ll use this space to discuss the three championship contenders who came up short.

Keselowski had the most volatile day of the four drivers and ultimately played second fiddle. At the end of the second stage, Keselowski showed he could beat Elliott head-to-head in a short sprint. The car was fast and he was clearly hungry to get that second title.

The problem all day for the No. 2 Ford was the pit crew. He lost four or more spots on two yellow flag pit stops. Most importantly, the final green flag stop left Keselowski over four seconds behind. He entered battling close behind Elliott and Logano and the crew just didn’t get it done (14.8 seconds according to NBC’s timing). A second title would be massive for Keselowski’s legacy but the 2012 Cup champ has to wait another year.

ALBINO: Keselowski on another title run falling short

Logano looked to have the most speed to challenge Elliott before his car went away on the final run. In the first stage, the No. 22 car looked lights out. He opened the second stage similarly, but once Logano lost the lead, he struggled to get it back. Pitting one lap before Elliott on the final green flag cycle put him out front and it only took eight laps for the No. 9 to breeze back by.

Just 30 years old, Logano still has plenty of time to build on his title count. He’s still on track to become a multi-time champion and win a bunch more races. But any time you lose a chance at a title, it has to sting, especially when you lead 125 laps and look so capable. 

The most puzzling performance of the day belonged to Hamlin… or did it? If you’ve been watching closely (or reading this column!), you know the No. 11 wasn’t at its best in the playoffs. Just three top 10s in the first nine playoff races doesn’t matter when you get to the championship, but it was a clear sign this team didn’t have the mojo it rode to co-title favorite with Kevin Harvick earlier this year.

For Hamlin, 2020 will go down as another missed opportunity. It was arguably his best season (seven wins, 18 top fives) and he only has a fourth place to show for it. This is the second straight year he finished last among the Championship 4, and as Hamlin enters his age 40 season, time is ticking.

CHEEK: Hamlin Speaks On Another ‘Oh-So-Close’ Run For A Title

What did this race prove?

Hendrick Motorsports is ready for the next chapter. Sunday just felt like a passing of the torch in all senses. Between Johnson running near the front and Elliott winning his first championship while adorning Johnson’s yellow numbers, it had everything for HMS. Youngster William Byron – pairing with Chad Knaus, also in his final race – finished ninth, too.

Next season, HMS adds Kyle Larson to its already impressive young stable of drivers. Hendrick now has a champion and three race winners all under the age of 30 locked up under contract. Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske might have more overall talent, but Hendrick delivered in 2020 and looks like the team of the future.

GABLE: How Hendrick Motorsports Turned Things Around

The Championship 4 contenders deliver every year, regardless of the drivers or track. Since NASCAR went to the new playoff format in 2014, the champion has won the final race every year. Many thought that could change after Harvick was eliminated and those concerns were quickly put to rest. (Harvick never threatened up front and settled for seventh).

Nobody outside the Championship 4 threatened all day. They were routinely first through fourth, with one occasionally dropping to fifth. It’s the second time in the elimination-style era that the Championship 4 have finished in the top four spots (2018).

Johnson’s impact and presence in the sport will be dearly missed. He went winless in his final three full-time seasons, but just having Jimmie around made things feel bigger. On and off the track, no one is better than Seven-Time. Johnson is truly one of the all-time greats and it’s a shame he didn’t get that final defining win like Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart did.

Going forward, Johnson will run a partial schedule with Chip Ganassi Racing in IndyCar. He did leave the door open to run some Cup races in the future, but that’s all unknown as of now. What we do know is that he won’t race his legendary No. 48 in the Cup Series again. As expected, his competitors who tried and failed to defeat him for so many years paid their proper respects.

ALBINO: A Look Back at Johnson’s Cup Career

Paint scheme of the weekend

At the final race of the season, the majority of teams ran their traditional sponsor and paint scheme combination. One that stood out as a bit different was Johnson, who ran a silver version of his white Ally Chevy. It was a subtle change that really looked sharp in the desert.

Better than last year?

Last year, Phoenix hosted the penultimate race. It was a day dominated by Hamlin, who needed a win to punch his ticket to Homestead-Miami Speedway and got the job done. Overall, the race was a dud in terms of passing and lead changes. With Phoenix set to host the title race the following year, the event prompted NASCAR to implement the new short track package we saw in 2020.

This year, there were even fewer caution flags for on-track incidents. Still, I thought the racing was vastly improved. The short track package allows for passing all throughout the field and that showed on Sunday. At different points all afternoon, it seemed like any of the four title contenders could win. While the finish wasn’t as exciting, Sunday was a good example of a race that can be entertaining without many wrecks and cautions. 2020’s version of the fall Phoenix race was a big improvement for 2019’s.

Playoff picture

The season is complete, with Elliott winning the title. Keselowski, Logano and Hamlin followed him across the finish line. As far as the other 12 drivers, here’s how the entire points standings shook out:

What’s next?

Well… that’s it! NASCAR’s offseason is finally here after a grueling schedule since returning from the COVID-19 pandemic break in May. The next time cars hit the track will be the Daytona 500 in February. Stick with Frontstretch all offseason for the latest news and analysis to get your racing fix and thanks for reading all season!

HENDERSON: More Season Finale 500 Post-Race Analysis

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