The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season continues to Kansas Speedway for its first of two visits to the heartland on Sunday, May 11 as 38 drivers get set to run a second 1.5-mile circuit in a row. Wyatt Watson and special guest Tino Pattigno get you set for the best bets this weekend.
Defending spring race winner Kyle Larson enters the weekend as the odds-on favorite at +400 odds to win this week’s AdventHealth 400 after winning this race by the closest margin in NASCAR history, .001 seconds. He’s a two-time winner at the track with eight top fives and 11 top 10s in his career at Kansas. Larson has also dominated in the laps led category at Kansas with 276 laps led in the Next Gen era.
UNBELIEVABLE FINISH! KYLE LARSON WINS AT KANSAS. WOW. pic.twitter.com/O7K3pOnmTw
— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) May 6, 2024
The Team Penske Ford of Ryan Blaney has second-best odds at +700. However, he hasn’t taken a win at Kansas, finishing a career-best third at the track with Wood Brothers Racing. His Penske teammates of Austin Cindric (+5,000 odds) and Joey Logano (+2,000 odds) both took wins in back-to-back weeks at Talladega Superspeedway and Texas Motor Speedway, respectively. However, Blaney’s odds at the moment is too high to take him to win his first race at Kansas.
The driver from the Ford camp to watch out for is Las Vegas Motor Speedway winner Josh Berry at +3,000 odds. Berry led 41 laps last week at Texas before crashing from the lead. With the speed Berry and WBR has showcased on the intermediate tracks, Berry is a much better value pick to go with to get his second victory.
Chevrolets swept the race wins at Kansas last season with Ross Chastain taking the win in the fall. Chastain finished second at Texas and came close to cashing his race-winning odds there. Riding with Chastain again at his +2,000 odds this week seems like a safe choice with his 8.7 Next Gen average finish at Kansas.
Two Chevys that have come close to capturing a win here and to potentially keep an eye on are William Byron (+850 odds) and Alex Bowman (+2,200 odds). Byron finished second in the fall, and Bowman has a runner-up finish as well. If Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports still has the speed, look out for these two drivers potentially.
Prior to last season, Toyotas dominated this track. Denny Hamlin (+850 odds) won in 2023 after battling Larson on the final lap and would’ve swept the year if it wasn’t for a late race caution that saw 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (+800 odds) win in the fall. Bubba Wallace (+2,200 odds) also won this race in 2022 driving the No. 45 Toyota as well, his last win in the Cup Series. Christopher Bell (+1,200 odds) led many laps in the fall race after starting on pole, but contact with the wall at the end of stage two killed his chances of winning. Toyota could be primed to potentially re-assert their dominance at Kansas.
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Wyatt Watson has followed motorsports closely since 2007. He joined Frontstretchas a journalist in February 2023 after serving in the United States Navy for five years as an Electronic Technician Navigation working on submarines. Wyatt is one of Frontstretch's primary IndyCar correspondents, providing exclusive video content on site. He hosts Frontstretch's Through the Gears podcast and occasionally The Pit Straight.You can find Wyatt's written work in columns such as Friday Faceoff and 2-Headed Monsteras well as exclusive IndyCar features. Wyatt also contributes to Frontstretch's social media team, posting unique and engaging content for Frontstretch.
Wyatt Watson can be found on X @WyattWRacing