Shine your boots and brush your hats. The NASCAR Cup Series stampedes to the Lone Star State for its one visit to the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway to open the month of May on Sunday, May 4.
Through the Gear‘s host Wyatt Watson gets you set with his card of winners and best prop bets this week.
Kyle Larson opens the weekend with the favored odds set at +475 via Bet365. Larson hasn’t won in the Next Gen era at Texas. Instead, his only win at the track came in the fall of 2021. That win locked him into the Championship 4 en route to his lone title. Although he won the pole in last year’s Texas race, his average finish of 20.3 ranks 22nd all-time in the Next Gen era.
Instead, Chevrolet has found success in the three Next Gen races at Texas. Tyler Reddick (+700 odds) won in 2022, and Larson’s teammates William Byron (+650 odds) and Chase Elliott (+1,800 odds) have wins in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Byron also holds the best Next Gen average finish at 3.7. Elliott with a 14.7 average Next Gen finish is 10th amongst active drivers. With both going into the weekend as previous recent winners, Byron and Elliott seem to be safe bets to win on Sunday.
CHASE ELLIOTT WINS AT TEXAS! pic.twitter.com/6Anw83DuN3
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Chevrolet’s biggest competition seems to be the Toyotas. Best in terms of Next Gen active finish is Chase Briscoe (+2,200 odds) with an average of seven during his time with Stewart-Haas Racing. Reddick is highest amongst drivers who have at least one start in a Toyota, but without a 2022 win with Richard Childress Racing, his average falls to 14.5.
Joe Gibbs Racing’s top two drivers in points, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, sit at +950 and +1,100 odds, respectively. Each have a top five in the Next Gen era and they have led a combined 64 laps through three races. With both drivers dominating to start the year so far, placing approximately two units on either driver could potentially be a good play with a slight lean in favorability to the three-time Texas winner in Hamlin.
Notable underdogs are Daniel Suarez and Carson Hocevar, at +8,000 odds each, are two other drivers to watch. Suarez has the fourth-highest average Next Gen finish at 8.3 and is coming off a runner-up finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Hocevar finished in the top 10 last year and looks poised to possibly do it again this season.
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Wyatt Watson has followed motorsports closely since 2007. He joined Frontstretch as a journalist in February 2023 after serving in the United States Navy for five years as an Electronic Technician Navigation working on submarines. Wyatt is one of Frontstretch's primary IndyCar correspondents, providing exclusive video content on site. He hosts Frontstretch's Through the Gears podcast and occasionally The Pit Straight.You can find Wyatt's written work in columns such as Friday Faceoff and 2-Headed Monsteras well as exclusive IndyCar features. Wyatt also contributes to Frontstretch's social media team, posting unique and engaging content for Frontstretch.
Wyatt Watson can be found on X @WyattWRacing