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Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain and Daniel Hemric are four-wide for the lead during the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway, 10/6/2024 (Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)
(Photo: Nigel Kinrade Photography)

Through the Gears: NASCAR Betting Odds for Talladega

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Through the Gears rolls on into Sweet Home Alabama for the third superspeedway race of the season, Sunday’s (April 27) NASCAR Cup Series race at the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway.

Wyatt Watson brings in special guest and host of DaleCenter Dale Tanhardt this week to review our best bets heading into the first of two races on NASCAR’s longest oval on the schedule.

The odds-on favorite to win heading into this weekend is Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney with +1,000 odds across multiple books. If you bet $10 on his win, your total profit would be $100. Blaney is a three-time winner at Talladega, the most out of any other track in Blaney’s 13 Cup wins. Blaney last won here in fall 2023, which catapulted him and his No. 12 Menards Ford Mustang into the Round of 8 in his championship season.

Although Talladega and Next Gen superspeedway racing tends to be very unpredictable most times, Blaney, who leads all drivers in Next Gen laps led at Talladega, is the most sure bet out of anyone else in the field.

With Blaney, his Team Penske teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric, as well as Penske affiliate Josh Berry with Wood Brothers Racing, are also strong candidates to take the win.

Logano is tied with second-best odds at +1,200 with fellow Ford driver and former Penske teammate Brad Keselowski, who came close to the win in the same race last season while avoiding the last lap Big One second on the bottom. Both Logano and Keselowski combine for nine wins in their careers at Talladega, yet both have failed to reach victory lane in the Next Gen era. Keselowski’s average finish in the Next Gen era is 14.7, eighth amongst all active drivers, and Logano is third worst of all active drivers at 27.5.

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What about the two other RFK Racing Fords in Chris Buescher (+3,000 odds) and Ryan Preece (+5,000 odds)?

Buescher has one superspeedway win in fall 2023 at Daytona International Speedway and Preece showed the best speed of the three at this year’s Daytona 500 before his spectacular blow over. Buescher shows the best conceivable value going into the weekend from the RFK camp, but with only two top 10 finishes in 10 starts at Talladega, Preece needs to avoid the Big One to be considered a contender.

Cindric, the 2022 Daytona 500 winner, comes last of the Penske trio in odds with +1,600 on Caesar’s Sportsbook. His best finish at Talladega is fifth in fall 2023, and he’s led laps in three consecutive races, including a stage win in last year’s fall race. Cindric has moved seemingly close to notching another superspeedway win for the Penske’s No. 2 team and has better value than his two teammates going into the race weekend.

Berry is a wild factor from the Ford camp. Berry is allied with arguably the best of the Ford teams. Berry’s odds run at +4,000 with a team that won at the fall Daytona International Speedway race last year and won a stage at Atlanta Motor Speedway earlier this year. With the support from the three Penske Fords, watch out for WBR’s No. 21 Ford to potentially win this weekend.

The biggest challengers to the Ford camp seems to be the Hendrick Motorsport Chevrolets, specifically William Byron or Alex Bowman.

Byron enters with the best average Next Gen finish at Talladega at 7.7. The back-to-back Daytona 500 champion has been knocking on the door of a win at Talladega with a finish no worse than seventh in the last four races. The best of those finishes was runner-up in fall 2023. Byron seems to have the luck factor of staying away from any trouble at superspeedways, and that goes a long way with his +1,600 odds.

Bowman recently has stayed out of trouble as well in recent years. He finished fifth in last season’s race and finished runner-up in 2019. He shown better success at the Daytona 500, and with Chevrolet support and +3,000 odds, Bowman seems like a great value pick for the weekend.

Although a Toyota in Tyler Reddick (+2,500 odds) won last year after most others wrecked late, it will once again be tough for one to shine with the competition they face. However, two of 23XI Racing’s drivers in Reddick and Bubba Wallace (+2,000 odds) seem like the two that could be the best bets for the win for Toyota. Wallace has been searching for a second win at Talladega since his rain-shortened victory in fall 2021, and Reddick goes into the weekend as the defending winner.

If there’s any bet that should be looked at for Toyotas, look no further than the top Toyota prop. Legacy Motor Club’s John Hunter Nemechek finished in the top five in the Daytona 500 this season and earned a top 10 at Atlanta to start the season. He has a career-best finish of eighth twice in 2020 with Front Row Motorsports, and Nemechek is tied with best odds with 23XI’s Riley Herbst at +2,000 odds. Herbst’s career-best finish came with FRM at Talladega in fall 2023, and with the volatility of Next Gen restrictor plate racing, it’s not too crazy to say that either driver could cash this prop.

Talladega offers the opportunity to look deeper into the odds than most weekends to find potential underdog. A strong candidate certainly is Michael McDowell at +3,600 odds. He was leading going into the tri-oval with FRM’s No. 34 before being turned after a block to Keselowski went wrong. Now with Spire Motorsports and after a great showing at Atlanta with Carson Hocevar (+4,400 odds) and a pole at the same track, McDowell becomes a completely viable option to bet for the weekend.

Speaking of the FRM No. 34, why not Todd Gilliland at +4,400 odds? He finished eighth last season at this race and has a finish of 12th or better in four of six races at Talladega. Gilliland could certainly put himself in position to win now being the lead driver at FRM and in the same ride that has won with David Ragan in 2013.

The deepest underdog worth looking at is Corey LaJoie. At +15,000 odds, LaJoie almost shocked the NASCAR world with his strong performance at this year’s Daytona 500 and has put himself into the contender conversation multiple times in the past during his time with Spire. LaJoie best finish at Talladega was fourth in fall 2023, and LaJoie’s prop bets are worth looking at if he does the same Sunday with a top five prop at +1,400 odds and top 10 prop of +430.

Xfinity regular Anthony Alfredo with Beard Motorsport’s No. 62 Chevrolet is also pretty good at superspeedway-style racing as well. He scored a top 10 in last year’s race after finishing sixth, and he can certainly do it again with his skills he’s displayed on Saturdays. He enters the weekend with +600 odds for a top 10, the best value for a driver who’s earned that finish before here.

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Wyatt Watson has followed motorsports closely since 2007. He joined Frontstretch as a journalist in February 2023 after serving in the United States Navy for five years as an Electronic Technician Navigation working on submarines. Wyatt is one of Frontstretch's primary IndyCar correspondents, providing exclusive video content on site. He hosts Frontstretch's Through the Gears podcast and occasionally The Pit Straight.You can find Wyatt's written work in columns such as Friday Faceoff and 2-Headed Monsteras well as exclusive IndyCar features. Wyatt also contributes to Frontstretch's social media team, posting unique and engaging content for Frontstretch.

Wyatt Watson can be found on X @WyattWRacing