Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2025 Jack Link’s 500

Welcome back, my fellow NASCAR Cup Series bettors! I hope you enjoyed your Easter weekend and are ready to get back on the DraftKings horse for this weekend’s Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Following a total drubbing from Kyle Larson at Bristol Motor Speedway, it’s time for NASCAR Cup drivers and teams to lick their wounds. Luckily, the track that produces the most parity is next up on the schedule: Talladega’s drafting package makes anyone on Sunday’s (April 26) starting grid a realistic threat to win under the right circumstances.

Here’s the downside of that for bettors: there’s no real rhyme or reason to selecting your fantasy DraftKings lineup. Sure, it’s important to look at the most recent races at sister tracks like Daytona International Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway. But there’s no guarantee the successful drivers in those events will do well in this one. Speed can only go so far when a multi-car wreck sparks right in front of you; Talladega “Big Ones” can lead to big disappointments for drivers who otherwise ran up front all day.

The most important thing to keep in mind is who tends to catch Lady Luck’s good graces, avoiding those inevitable crashes that wipe out a dozen cars in an instant. And for those where bad luck tends to bite them? Let’s just say you won’t see guys like Kyle Busch or Chase Elliott in our fantasy lineup. While both of wheelmen are good at this racing style, even winning at Talladega in the recent past, they have also been swept up in some kind of incident more often than not. It’s not worth the risk.

Since we’re coming off the lone NASCAR Cup off week of the season, I’m not going to do a full breakdown for Bristol. I won my fantasy group by taking Larson number one overall but I absolutely made a horrible decision by only placing one of my recommended wagers on Chris Buescher to finish on the podium. Buescher finished way down the running order and off the lead lap, which was the case for most everybody not named Larson or Denny Hamlin.

DraftKings Rules of the Road

Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.

However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.

Fantasy Forecast

Ryan Blaney ($10,500)

I almost decided not to select the 2023 Cup champion, because my goodness, his luck has been miserable as of late. Two weeks ago, Blaney had a pretty good car at Bristol, but cautions didn’t fall his way late in the race, leaving him fifth despite 48 laps led on the day.

Still, that gave Blaney back-to-back top-five finishes for the first time this year, building momentum after an early slump that included three straight DNFs. And now, he heads to a track type that Team Penske has excelled in, posting a win as recently as September 2024 with Joey Logano at Atlanta.

It all bodes well for Blaney to get that first win of this season this week. Talladega’s big, fast drafting layout has been kind to him over the course of his career; he could use a win to take the pressure off as the push for the playoffs starts ramping up.

I think Roger Penske’s Fords will control the race for most of the day and it’ll be Blaney getting the job done.

William Byron ($10,000)

I think it’s safe to say that Byron is now the lead dog for Hendrick Motorsports’ drafting track program. This year’s Daytona 500 winner is up to five career wins on this track type; although none of them include Talladega, you have to think a breakthrough is coming right around the corner.

I don’t think it’s coming this particular weekend, but Byron’s definitely the biggest threat to Blaney and the Penske powerhouse. Four straight top-10 finishes at ‘Dega is a rarity for any driver, considering the luck involved, and he’s earned six total in 14 career Cup starts at the 2.66-mile tri-oval. Add in a sixth at Bristol plus a runner-up at Darlington Raceway earlier this month and you get a driver with momentum in position to lead Chevy’s charge to the front.

If he does, Byron is sure to walk away with a top-five finish at the very least.

Austin Cindric ($8,600)

If we’re talking superspeedway racing, then you know Cindric’s name is going to appear on this list. The Penske driver was a big factor out front for much of the Daytona 500 along with the race at Atlanta the following week. With a penchant for superspeedway racing, I believe he’ll be absolutely crucial to his teammates’ success Sunday.

Very similar to another driver on this list, teammate Blaney, Cindric’s very adept at this style and is going to lead laps out front. 288 of his 415 laps led, in fact, since the start of the 2024 season have been at these drafting tracks. With pressure slowly mounting over his long-term future in the No. 2 Ford, Cindric could quell the critics with an April win that secures his playoff position.

That might be a bridge too far. But I predict a solid top-10 run with some laps led for good measure.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,500)

RSJ and Talladega are synonymous with one another, as two of his four Cup Series wins have come at this track. Much like Cindric, Stenhouse is a must have for any event that takes place at a drafting facility, including last fall’s thrilling victory where he surged to the front from 32nd starting spot. (Think of all the DK bonus points that added to his winning score!)

Another big reason I’m picking Stenhouse is that he knows Talladega is his best chance at a win until the series returns to Daytona later this year. For a single-car team with long playoff odds, Talladega’s as good a place as any the No. 47 HYAK Motorsports team could pull the upset.

With the extra motivation and his track record, Stenhouse should walk out anywhere from first to 20th. Just be forewarned: if he’s not winning, he’s wrecking, often at the forefront of a bump gone wrong at these facilities.

The driver of the No. 77 was most certainly in line for a top five, maybe top-three finish but a jack malfunction on the final round of pit stops relegated him to 11th position. It was still his second-best run of the year after a runner-up result at Atlanta back in February.

That’s a reminder Hocevar nearly won the last race at a drafting track, and I think it’d be foolish not to take him at this salary. Even with some Spire Motorsports drama this week with crew chief Rodney Childers leaving the No. 7 team, the organization is as well positioned as any of the middle-tier cars to draft themselves into contention.

If Hocevar and his team can get out of their own way, I expect him to be solidly inside the top 10.

Erik Jones ($6,400)

While Jones has just had a miserable go of things at Legacy Motor Club since 2022, he’s run well at Talladega in the past.

Jones has been on both sides of the drafting wheel of fortune, from pushing someone to a win to leading off turn four on the last lap only to be taken out before reaching the line. He felt Lady Luck burn him as recently as Daytona this year, edging ahead of Austin Cindric in a Duel before losing the win due to the timing of a final-lap caution.

But that performance was part of a strong Legacy showing at Daytona and Atlanta in terms of speed. I have to believe Jones will break the bad luck to perform this week, a bargain at $6,400 and a solid low-tier darkhorse contender.

Prop Bets and Locks

1. Blaney (+1000) to win: Blaney is definitely my pick to win this week and I feel really good about it simply because Talladega is arguably his best track. Oddsmakers are giving out a good line because luck is such a huge factor in these races so you can’t go wrong picking anyone in the +1000 to +2000 range.
2. Toyota (+270) to win: I understand why the oddsmakers don’t believe in Toyota when it comes to drafting tracks. That doesn’t mean I agree. They had two Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas within a few laps of winning the Daytona 500, and of course, Christopher Bell then went on to win Atlanta. After a couple of years of rough performances, it’s quickly becoming clear Toyota is no underdog at these tracks.
3. Tyler Reddick (+320) to win Group C: Reddick shares his group with Brad Keselowski, Hamlin and Larson which makes him the underdog. Don’t be fooled. Reddick’s the only driver in the group to win on a drafting track in a Next Gen car. Keselowski is in the midst of a career-worst season, Larson has never won on a drafting track, and you have to go all the way back to 2020 to find Hamlin’s last superspeedway win. Cash in on this gift from the betting gods and make some money.