Did You Notice?: If NASCAR Short Tracks Are In a Death Spiral?

Did You Notice? … The first two NASCAR Cup Series short track races of 2025 have combined to feature just 13 lead changes?

At Martinsville Speedway last month, Denny Hamlin led 274 of the last 275 laps while cruising to a 4.6-second win. This Sunday (April 13), he ran second while Kyle Larson led a whopping 411 of 500 laps at Bristol Motor Speedway.

It was a thunderous disappointment at Thunder Valley, a racetrack which one year ago produced the best short track race of the Next Gen era. Goodyears that wore unexpectedly brought driver skill and passing into play that day, producing a track-record 54 lead changes and comparisons to Bristol’s heyday of the 1990s.

On Sunday? The track had just four total lead changes and only one caution outside stage breaks, a harmless spin by rookie Shane van Gisbergen in turn 2. A track that once featured 160,000 filled seats and a record sellout streak of 55 races had once again become a shadow of its former self, both in at-track competition and attendance.

That’s been the norm, not the exception, among the three smallest tracks on the circuit: Bristol, Martinsville and Richmond Raceway. Tracks once known for fender-rubbing action, fantastic finishes and bump-and-runs have instead produced some of the series’ biggest Next Gen snoozers.

Fewest Lead Changes: Next Gen Era

That’s six races out of the 16 worst, tied with road/street courses. But short tracks have the most laps of any track type (up to 500 at Bristol) and up to five times the lead change opportunities compared to less than 100 laps for races at the Chicago Street Course and Watkins Glen International.

The struggles result from a focus on the Next Gen chassis fixing NASCAR’s biggest problem in its Gen-6 car: intermediate tracks. Despite making up roughly half the 36-race schedule, 1.5-mile ovals had become the sport’s Achilles Heel, with poor aerodynamics leaving the entire field frozen in place after restarts.

But the better handling engineers produced for this car on 1.5-mile ovals tipped the scales on short track racing. The grippy nature of the Next Gen makes it virtually impossible to bump others out of the way; aerodynamic issues have also never loomed larger at tracks where the speeds are much lower, averaging less than 100 mph at Martinsville.

NASCAR has already tried to fix the issue once, removing downforce by adjusting the rear diffuser while raising the rear spoiler up to three inches. The changes followed input from all stakeholders: drivers, owners and race officials. That 2024 Bristol race offered hope.

Instead? It was just an illusion. The tires wound up being the game-changer, and once a normal compound was back in action at Martinsville, three races later, drivers were irritated and fans were back to falling asleep.

“The front ends are just ungodly not working,” Kyle Busch said after an April 2024 race at Martinsville.

When asked what everyone could do to further improve, Busch was blunt.

“It doesn’t matter, because they’re not going to do it, so it doesn’t matter. I’m not going to paint myself in a bad spot to get in trouble.”

Since Bristol, the most notable short track moment has been Austin Dillon’s wrecking ball win, stealing back what was an impressive drive to the front at Richmond Raceway. But the ending tarnished the event, leading to a penalty that erased Dillon’s spot in the playoffs while NASCAR removed one of Richmond’s race dates for 2025.

What’s the solution? Asking the question ignores Busch’s answer. There are now just six points race dates on the calendar at tracks less than a mile in length: two at Bristol, two at Martinsville and one each at Richmond and Iowa Speedway. And with Auto Club Speedway needing $300 million to be reborn as a short track, don’t expect that number to expand anytime soon.

Six races means only 17% of the race schedule compared to 1.5- and two-mile ovals that have made up the majority since 2001. It puts NASCAR in an interesting spot: why spend so much money to tweak a problem on a track type taking up limited bandwidth?

For every Bristol, there’s a Chicagoland Speedway or Kentucky Speedway sitting dormant that could slip right back into the rotation. Imagine, what was once a crown jewel of the sport, the Bristol Night Race, getting replaced by the Joliet 400 out in Illinois. Blasphemy and idiocy in 2006 could become intentional Next Gen deployment come 2029.

The one change that wouldn’t cost much would be Goodyear recreating last year’s Bristol magic. Problem was … that was an accident. And while bringing multiple compounds have worked well, most recently at Phoenix Raceway in March, they seem better suited for larger tracks.

That’s because the art of the short track has been the ability to bump, bang and race hard toward finishes that left the fans on their feet. Like this one below.

Or this one.

Or this one.

These past expectations leave it impossible to satisfy both fans and drivers with the Next Gen setup. Just look at Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick, who have utilized the CARS Tour to inject a boost into sagging grassroots short tracks across the Southeast. It was through these rough-and-tumble local races raw NASCAR talent used to be produced.

Now, they’ll run there to graduate to … battling it out at 1.5-mile Kansas Speedway? That’s not exactly the stepladder the sport might have intended as recently as 10 years ago.

It may very well be the evolution the sport needs in this moment. Or it could be a risky maneuver that puts the very connection with its moonshine, blue-collar grassroots competition at risk. However you feel, the consequences are real: we’re far enough down this road with the Next Gen that the Last Great Colosseum feels closer than ever to a sacrificial lamb.

Follow Tom Bowles on X at @NASCARBowles

Tom Bowles

Majority Owner and Editor in Chief at Frontstretch

The author of Did You Notice? (Wednesdays) Tom spends his time overseeing Frontstretch’s 40+ staff members as its majority owner and Editor-in-Chief. Based outside Philadelphia, Bowles is a two-time Emmy winner in NASCAR television and has worked in racing production with FOX, TNT, and ESPN while appearing on-air for SIRIUS XM Radio and FOX Sports 1's former show, the Crowd Goes Wild. He most recently consulted with SRX Racing, helping manage cutting-edge technology and graphics that appeared on their CBS broadcasts during 2021 and 2022.

You can find Tom’s writing here, at CBSSports.com and Athlonsports.com, where he’s been an editorial consultant for the annual racing magazine for 15 years.