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F1 Midweek: Red Bull World Champions At Bungling No. 2 Driver Situations

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The 2025 Formula 1 season is only two races old, and if anyone could have predicted that Liam Lawson would dominate the headlines at this point in the season, they surely wouldn’t have predicted that it was because Lawson won the first two races. Because it would be crazy to think that. 

But it also would have been crazy to predict Lawson in the headlines because he’s in danger of losing his seat at Red Bull to Yuki Tsunoda after just two races. Or would it? Because that’s what happened, as Red Bull made the switch on Tuesday (March 25th).

It feels almost like Red Bull expected this. Maybe “expected” isn’t an accurate description. Maybe “was not too surprised” would be more appropriate phrasing. 

Lawson has struggled mightily in the first two races, crashing out in Australia and finishing 12th in China (he moved up three places due to the disqualifications of Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, and Pierre Gasly). And he’s been even worse in qualifying. To be fair, Lawson had never driven on either the Melbourne or Shanghai circuits. I’m assuming (and I think it’s a very safe assumption) that Red Bull knew the 2025 schedule before Lawson was promoted to the Red Bull No. 2 seat in early 2025. So they should have seen this coming. I mean, “Oracle” is in the team’s official name. 

But here we are, with Christian Horner having done what he does best – giving half-hearted endorsements of Red Bull’s No. 2 driver, while also saying any rumors of an upcoming driver change are purely “speculative.” It feels like Red Bull was in a very similar, if not identical, situation not too long ago. Like maybe six months ago? 

And Tsunoda is probably feeling a bit of déjà vu himself, after Red Bull led him on again with the possibility of the young Japanese star taking over as Verstappen’s wingman. This time, the Red Bull tease reached fruition for Tsunoda, and now he’s in the hot seat, and the pressure’s immediately on him.      

Did RB have better options other than promoting from within? If only there was another driver out there, who was available at the time, with a pretty stellar resume, and F1 wins under his belt, with experience driving in high-pressure situations, with a legendary team, and universally liked and respected in the paddock, then Red Bull wouldn’t find itself in this predicament.   

That would be former Ferrari and current Williams driver Carlos Sainz, who was also a Red Bull Junior Team graduate years ago. The stars aligned, as did the timing, when Ferrari let Sainz go. Sainz was staring RB right in the face, and it was a narrative that was right on the cusp of going “full circle.” But Red Bull blinked and took a pass, and closed the circle to include only Lawson and Tsunoda. Signing Sainz would have made too much sense. The route Red Bull chose to make instead makes no sense.

By limiting their choices to Lawson and Tsunoda, Red Bull effectively threw in the towel in the constructors championship race, because neither would likely score enough points to keep Red Bull in the hunt. At best, Sainz in a Red Bull could have won a race or two and challenged for podium finishes when he didn’t; at worst, he would have scored consistently and been in position to salvage races when Verstappen struggled, had mechanical issues, or was just in a general pissy mood. So, in essence, Sainz could have been the “good” version of Sergio Perez in a Red Bull.

Is Sainz as talented as Verstappen? No. But he is certainly more talented than Lawson and Tsunoda. And maybe that was the issue – Sainz was too talented to be Verstappen’s teammate.  Verstappen obviously doesn’t need or want a teammate to push him. He wants a teammate who knows his role, and that role is not to upset the balance of the team, which skews heavily, if not altogether, in favor of Verstappen. Obviously, Sainz’s talent and abilities would have upset that balance. 

But not Lawson’s. Don’t get me wrong, Lawson is a good driver, but not good enough to feel anything but inferior to Verstappen. And it shows. Yes, Tsunoda, of course, is an inferior driver to Verstappen, but I think Tsunoda has the right mix of confidence and crazy to convince himself that he’s not that inferior to Verstappen. Tsunoda is exactly what Red Bull needs—another hothead to go along with Verstappen. I can’t wait to see how Horner handles the radio chatter when both Verstappen and Tsunoda aren’t pleased with their respective car’s performance.   

In short, Lawson was doomed to fail, if not because of his talent level, then because Red Bull gave him no chance to do anything but that.  

Tsunoda had stated publicly that he was 100% behind replacing Lawson at Red Bull. Of course, he is; it’s one of the most sought-after seats on the grid. But are these the circumstances in which Tsunoda got that seat – already passed over once for Lawson by the team, a team which dumped his predecessor after two races? Can Tsunoda trust that he’ll be treated right by Red Bull? Is there a reason Red Bull didn’t choose Tsunoda in the first place? Was it because he’s not afraid to speak his mind? There are so many questions Tsunoda could ask, but can’t, because if you’ve just been gifted the drive of your life, you can’t then say, “Before we go any further, I have a few concerns.” You can, but you might then see that coveted ride jerked out of your grasp faster than it was taken from Lawson.

And maybe, just maybe, Red Bull outsmarted us all, and had this entire plan mapped out from the start, to initially give Lawson the seat, knowing he would fail, so they could then replace him with Tsunoda, right before his home grand prix in Japan, in Red Bull’s last season with Honda-powered engines. You’ve heard of fairy tale endings; for Tsunoda, it’s a fairy tale beginning. 

Red Bull’s decision could be validated (or at least they’ll tell themselves that) if Tsunoda goes to Suzuka and scores points. It’s highly possible. For one, he’ll be in a Red Bull. And two, I have a sneaking suspicion that Tsunoda knows the Suzuka circuit like the back of his hand.

And speaking of “backhands,” compliments of that ilk are sure to be issued by Horner regarding Lawson. I’m sure what Lawson needs to hear now is that he’s a “team player,” or should use this or a “learning experience,” or to “not to give up on his dreams.”    

As things stand now, Lawson’s confidence has most likely been destroyed, Tsunoda probably carries the weight of unachievable expectations on his shoulders, and Red Bull is congratulating itself on a job well done.

And who knows? It’s possible this situation ends well, but it won’t end well for everyone involved. Tsunoda may excel, and Red Bull will have their driver of the future. But Lawson would then be left out in the cold, or left further out in the cold. The bottom line is it’s a cold business, and Lawson got burned.