Daily Fantasy NASCAR DraftKings Forecast: 2025 Pennzoil 400

”If you don’t have the magic, don’t bother. Desiring a thing cannot make you have it” – Mark Wahlberg, The Gambler

As the NASCAR Cup Series arrives in the betting capital of the world this weekend, it’s clear that one driver clearly has the “magic” referenced in the above quote. Christopher Bell quite literally cannot be stopped, and the odds that he will win again this weekend are very high.

After all, the driver of the No. 20 Toyota Camry has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He does not, however, have a win here, and unfortunately I think his magic runs out this weekend and a new winner will emerge.

If not the hottest driver in the series, then who? As most of you long-time readers know, I make a lot of my picks based on analytics. Unlike the races at Phoenix Raceway last week and the two pack races, you should be looking to have a nice blend of teams and manufacturers across your lineups.

No one manufacturer or team has dominated this place in a long time, though Rick Hendrick’s Chevrolets went on a three-race winning streak here from the spring of 2023 to the fall of 2024.

I would avoid Toyotas this weekend, though. Despite some great runs from Bell and Tyler Reddick here in the recent past, the manufacturer hasn’t won here since Denny Hamlin did it in the fall of 2021.

Before we get too far into this week, let’s look at how things went for us at Phoenix. I was able to pick up a win with the obvious choice in Bell, and with some really good runs from the rest of my guys, I got a group win. But I walked away with absolutely nothing from my betting slip for the fourth weekend in a row, and I’m starting to wonder if the racing gods have a grudge.

2025 Shriners Children’s 500 Fantasy/Betting Breakdown

Right On The Money	Lick Your Wounds
Christopher Bell, 97.0 points scored	Riley Herbst, -15 points scored
Joey Logano, 62.2 points scored	Chase Briscoe, 1 point scored
John Hunter Nemechek, 51 points scored	Ryan Blaney (+500) to win, finished 28th

DraftKings Rules of the Road

Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second place gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 and 31st gets 10.

However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added or subtracted from their score. If the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 for each fastest lap.

Fantasy Forecast

1. Kyle Larson ($10,500)

How weird is it that four weeks into the 2025 season, this is Larson’s first appearance in the forecast?

Yung Money is definitely the man to beat in my eyes here. He has two wins in his last three starts at this track and three wins overall, two of which came in the spring event at this track.

If anybody can take the fight to the No. 20 this weekend and stop history from being made, it’s him.

2. Kyle Busch ($8,800)

Listen, I’m starting to think that the idea that I’m somehow cursing Busch by picking him in any capacity may be in my head.

I picked him last week to beat Hamlin, but while I didn’t win that wager, Rowdy finished the race inside the top ten. So, for that reason, I’m going to pick him up at the No. 2 slot. He’s got a reasonable salary and this is, of course, his hometown racetrack.

This team appears to be beating down the door of a win as of late, and it’d be very cool to see this legend break the streak at home.

3. Alex Bowman ($8,000)

Bowman really impressed a lot of people (me included) last week at Phoenix battling back from a poor qualifying performance to finish seventh.

Looking back a little further, I don’t see how he hasn’t been on the radar before now. He has been able to navigate trouble and mayhem everywhere but Atlanta Motor Speedway so far this season, as that’s the only place he hasn’t finished in the top 10 in 2025.

Now, I know the season is young, so I don’t want to get too excited about whether or not he can win Sunday, but I definitely think he’ll notch his first top five and some nab good points for fantasy owners.

4. Bubba Wallace ($7,800)

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for 23XI Racing’s flagship team, as Wallace blew a tire late at Phoenix, destroying his car and a solid run in the process.

I truly think they bounce back this weekend, though. Wallace has a few wins between all three of NASCAR’s top divisions on similar racetracks, specifically Michigan International Speedway.

I don’t think he’ll be a true contender for a win, but I do think he’ll improve upon his qualifying effort and score valuable swing points in close matchups.

5. Chris Buescher ($7,400)

Back when this track was first constructed, Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing dominated this facility, winning seven of the first thirteen events held. Now, those days have passed, but if anybody can return RFK to those glory days, it’s Buescher.

Much like Bowman, Buescher has been sneaky good week in and week out. His only finish outside the top 10 was at Atlanta as well, and otherwise he looks solid.

At his salary this week, he’s a can’t-miss option, and has shown a knack for running well on these big intermediate speedways.

6. Noah Gragson ($6,900)

I don’t know if any of you follow Gragson on X/Twitter but if you don’t, you’re missing out on one of the funniest “beefs” of all time.

For weeks, Gragson and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. have been bickering back and forth over the platform and like I said, it’s highly entertaining and I very much recommend it.

Now, all that aside, he’s been pretty impressive here throughout his career. He notched an impressive top-10 finish in this race last season, and he’s never finished worse than sixth in a NASCAR Xfinity Series race at his hometown track.

Prop Bets and Locks

1. Larson (+500) to win: Yep, I’m putting all my money into Yung Money at Vegas. I really believe he’s going to win this race and while all my buddies are putting money on Bell, I’ll be laughing all the way to the bank.
   
2. Joey Logano (+150) H2H over Bell (-205): Well, well, well this may be my favorite wager of the weekend. Logano has been insanely good and consistent at this racetrack throughout his career, and most recently beat Bell at this track in the fall for a pivotal playoff win. Larson will win the race, but do I think Logano will also beat Bell? Absolutely.
   
3. Brad Keselowski (+1000) as top finishing Ford: It has been an absolutely atrocious start to the season for the No. 6 team, but if they can turn it around anywhere, it’s Vegas. “Bad Brad” has a legendary resume here, to be sure and that has to count for something. I look for him to quite possibly beat all his Ford teammates to get this season back on track.

Pay attention to my X account this weekend for odds on the NASCAR Xfinity Series event!