NASCAR championship weekend and the conclusion to the 2024 season are finally here, but what should normally feel like a joyous occasion is anything but.
Two NASCAR Cup Series teams (and one of its star drivers) are engaged in an ugly battle with NASCAR in court. Questions have been raised about the ethics of racing after a controversial finish to Friday’s (Nov. 1) NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race, and a possibility of payback exists for two Championship 4 drivers this weekend.
There was another miscue from Race Control (in a season full of them) after it failed to spot a runaway wheel under caution before restarting the Cup race, followed by a post-race decision to penalize Christopher Bell’s wall riding (a decision that took more than 20 minutes to hand out), knocking him out of the Championship 4.
And on top of it all, there is a blazing inferno taking over NASCAR regarding potential race manipulation and manufacturer orders to help William Byron and/or Bell advance.
What was shaping up to be a great race will now live in infamy. You have an owner/driver in Brad Keselowski taking shots at the playoffs, saying that Sunday (Nov. 3) should be the last straw with this format. The last 24 hours has arguably seen the most criticism ever leveled against this format, and cracks are beginning to form in the formation.
Just about all excitement in crowning this season’s champions is dead, and it’s partially dead (Martinsville Speedway controversies notwithstanding) because some of the best Cup drivers this season won’t be racing for a championship trophy on Sunday.
First, all the credit goes out to Byron, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney for qualifying for the Championship 4. Everyone knows the game, and they played the game to perfection.
But I wrote last month that sports experience the most success when its greatest (and by extension, most popular) teams are in the spotlight and competing for all the glory, which is something that NASCAR’s elimination format has consistently struggled to get right. And with all the questions, controversies and uncertainties surrounding the world of NASCAR this week, this year’s Championship 4 lineup is not one that moves the needle.
For starters, the winningest driver this season (Kyle Larson) has been eliminated. He’s won six races this season, while no one else has won more than three. Larson also leads the field in laps led, followed by the Joe Gibbs Racing trio of Bell and Denny Hamlin. They’ve led at least 900 laps a piece, while no other driver has managed to crack 600 this year.
And yet, the three most frequent drivers out front this season won’t be competing for a title at Phoenix Raceway.
*In the above and below charts, drivers that qualified for the Championship 4 are highlighted in blue. Drivers that were eliminated from championship contention at Martinsville are highlighted in red. In the event of a tie, the drivers were ordered by alphabetical order of last names.
The season’s most dominant drivers won’t be competing for a championship, and the season’s most consistent drivers won’t be competing for one either. Chase Elliott leads the series in average finish (11.8) and of the six drivers this season to post an average finish of 14th or better, only two will be competing for a championship. The other four? They were all eliminated at Martinsville.
Furthermore, the three drivers who have scored the most points across the full season (Larson, Elliott and Bell) have been eliminated. And if you take away Hamlin’s 75-point penalty prior to the start of the playoffs, he’d have the fourth-most points scored all year.
As for other counting stats, the season leaders in top-five finishes (Larson and Bell) and top-10 finishes (Bell) have been eliminated from championship contention. Logano, who punched his ticket into the Championship 4 by winning the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, ranks 11th in laps led, 15th in average finish, 14th in points scored, 11th in top-five finishes and 13th in top-10 finishes of all drivers this season.
Again, everyone plays by the same rules.
But a championship (especially in a series where everyone races against each other every week) should come down to the best drivers the season has had to offer, and when none of the season leaders in wins, top fives, top 10s, average finish, points scored and laps led manage to qualify for the Championship 4, it makes the final race feel hollow.
From a storyline perspective, the drivers who were eliminated from contention at Martinsville would arguably make the more compelling watch for general audiences. You’d have the dominant driver in Larson going for his second title while his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Elliott is looking to win a second title of his own and redeem himself after a winless 2023 that saw him fall behind Elliott and Byron on the HMS totem pole.
You’d have Bell (who’s had a career year alongside Reddick) looking to cap off a stellar season with his first title, and Hamlin, everyone’s favorite driver to hate, looking to (once again) earn that first championship in his 19th full-time season. And why would that alternative be so compelling? They may be big names, yes, but they’ve also had the week-in, week-out results all season to back it up.
Is that to say, Larson, Bell, Elliott and Hamlin have been the four best drivers this season? Of course not, and you can easily make a case for Blaney, Reddick or Byron as a part of the top four.
But it’s hard to argue that this year’s Championship 4 truly consists of the four best drivers this season has had to offer now that 35 weekends are in the books. And with all the controversies surrounding the lawsuit, the officiating and the playoffs, this year’s championship weekend feels like a formality more than anything else.
About the author
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly columns include “Stat Sheet” and “4 Burning Questions.” He also writes commentary, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Can find on Twitter @stephen_stumpf.
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This just amplifies the ignorance of trying to have a ‘playoff’ where every competitor is on the track for every race. If Nascar thought there wouldn’t be manipulation, well…”Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity”.
Everyone just mad because it’s not a HMS dominant field in it they get rough brsked you what to call them stupid Larson broke rules but got his forgiveness right but he waddnt at HMS hr got none right get over it it’s called playoffs not ehat I’ve done lately I guess give to thr guy that run 20 all year yes he needs a shot no her don’t all he does is cry if he drove as hard as he cries maybe he would be there not just because you drive for HMS hate the game not the way its played get over it
Thank you for this article. I’ve been saying the same thing about this format and it doesn’t truly have the best drivers in the championship race. I passed this year on watching it.. I hope Elton Sawyer makes necessary changes to make it better and more fair for those who had a strong season .