In a season that saw Kyle Larson and company dominate many NASCAR Cup Series races both inside and out of his element, a stark reality could be setting in on the field.
As it sits, there is a very real possibility that Larson may not even be Chevrolet’s best chance at cracking the Championship 4. Also, Chevy may miss out on the Championship 4 entirely after a more than solid 2024 campaign.
Just look at the numbers.
The bowtie boys are in a tight spot, to put it lightly. Larson and Chase Elliott sit below the cut line entering Martinsville Speedway, with Larson seven points outside the bubble after Homestead-Miami Speedway and Elliott a staggering 43 points back. For the latter, winning may be his last chance to find his way in. For the former, he can’t afford a repeat performance.
The only Chevrolet driver inside the cut line at the moment, if just barely, is William Byron, who has that aforementioned seven-point lead on Larson. Tyler Reddick and Joey Logano are already locked in to the final round, and another winner will be crowned this weekend at Martinsville Speedway before heading to the penultimate race at Phoenix.
That leaves only one spot left for a driver to point their way in, and if a new winner is crowned, which it most likely will be, Chevy’s chances are severely impacted if that winner has any sort of oval on the hood of their car. Who or what, then, is Chevy’s best chance to scrape its way into the final showdown out in the desert?
Earlier this season at Martinsville, Chevy — more specifically Hendrick Motorsports — completely obliterated the competition. Byron actually won the race, while Larson was second and Elliott finished third. However, who else finished inside the top 10 alongside them? Ryan Blaney, who also sits well within the hunt for that third winner’s slot, and Logano.
In short, that’s too close to call. Three drivers who are still well within the hunt finishing inside the top 10 just earlier this season means that any of them could take home the win. In that case, what kind of help will these drivers get?
That plays into Ford’s hands more than it does Chevrolet’s.
Logano is racing for a championship no matter what, and his running mate and last year’s champion, Blaney, is still vying for that opportunity. It behooves any manufacturer to have as many drivers in the hunt as possible when the final round comes, and with his teammate just on the verge of getting in, Logano might sacrifice some of his race to help Blaney along.
As for the Hendrick crowd, it’s still competing for the manufacturer’s first official lock for the championship. Could that lead to some heightened tension on race day? You bet. If the earlier Martinsville race repeats itself and it’s Byron, Larson and Elliott coming to the white flag, of course things are going to get dicey.
I certainly don’t. That’s the nightmare scenario for Hendrick and co.: having to choose between one of the three cars it’s got in the hunt at the moment. Some would say that Larson is the easy choice there right now, but is he?
In theory, Larson should have dominated at Homestead. It’s a track that plays right into his racing style — high up the track and fast. That didn’t happen, though, and in comparison, Elliott had a fantastic day at the office with a fifth-place finish. Fans saw what Elliott could do with momentum on his side during his own championship run, and if he’s got that, who’s to say he isn’t Hendrick’s best shot at a championship run as someone who’s won at Phoenix before?
If one thing is for certain, it’s that this playoff style leads to a heightened sense of drama when it comes to these races. This time around, it’s the bowtie boys who are on the hot seat when the Cup Series goes short track racing this weekend at Martinsville.
About the author
Tanner Marlar is a staff writer for Sports Illustrated’s Cowbell Corner, an AP Wire reporter, an award-winning sports columnist and talk show host and master's student at Mississippi State University. Soon, Tanner will be pursuing a PhD. in Mass Media Studies. Tanner began working with Frontstretch as an Xfinity Series columnist in 2022.
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It is a roll of the dice. Nightmare for them is Blaney or Hamlin win, Bell (?) on points, then yes. But that’s why they race.
Now, with tin foil and black helicopter crowd, who knows.