Will anyone in the three NASCAR series win their way into the Championship 4?
Mark Kristl: In the NASCAR Cup Series race, it is largely dependent on qualifying because passing at Martinsville Speedway in the Next Gen is tough. William Byron has two wins, including the most recent one, and he has finished better than he qualified nine times in his 13 starts there. He’d be my best bet to win there. Even though there is usually drama in the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Martinsville, with Aric Almirola in the field, good luck to his competitors. And for the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race, it’ll come down to Corey Heim and Christian Eckes.
Joy Tomlinson: Anyone in Cup could sneak out a win at Martinsville, as all of them have won there before. Ryan Blaney has had one of the best average finishes there since 2019 and won this race last year. Denny Hamlin has five wins at The Paperclip, but his last one came in 2015. To me, Blaney has the better chance to snag a victory and win his way in. As far as Xfinity, Justin Allgaier or Sam Mayer look to be the ones who have a better chance of winning their way in. Allgaier beat Sheldon Creed in a fierce battle last season, while Mayer finished second earlier this year to Almirola. However, in this case, Almirola will likely perform similarly to his run in the spring, leaving the final two spots for drivers to point their way in. In Trucks, Eckes dominated in April, and Ty Majeski has a good average at Martinsville. One of these drivers appears most likely to claim the victory and move on to the Championship 4.
Anthony Damcott: In the Cup Series, someone will win their way into the Championship 4. The big question is who, as any of the six drivers not locked in has found success at Martinsville. If they haven’t won, they’ve led lots of laps and run up front. Hamlin hasn’t won at this track (largely considered his home track along with Richmond Raceway) since 2015, so what better time to get another grandfather clock than now? It’s perfectly possible that Allgaier will repeat as fall Martinsville winner. He’s a favorite at almost any racetrack and could easily be the one to watch. In the Truck Series, it’s hard to go against Eckes. He won the spring race and is one of the favorites for the championship. He’s a safe pick.
Andrew Stoddard: We will see the win-and-in scenario play out in Cup and Xfinity. In both cases, it will come courtesy of a Chevrolet driver. In the Xfinity Series, Mayer will walk it off into the Championship 4, joining the previous Round of 8 winners AJ Allmendinger and Austin Hill. Mayer’s JR Motorsports teammate Allgaier will snag the final spot on points. On the Cup side, Kyle Larson will prolong Hendrick Motorsports’ dominance of The Paperclip to earn an opportunity at his second championship.
With voting open for the NASCAR Cup Series Most Popular Driver, who should win the award?
Damcott: I wrote about this after the Olympic break, which expands my thoughts further. Reality will say Chase Elliott wins for the millionth year in a row, but it should be Larson. He’s been far and away one of the best drivers of the season. He’s made some great moves for positions (even the win in the case of Kansas Speedway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway) and has been fun to watch all season. Combine that with his newfound NTT IndyCar Series fan base from his Indianapolis 500 run, plus all his dirt fans, and he could legitimately give Elliott a run for his money.
Kristl: Make no mistake, Elliott will win the award. Hamlin has increased his fame with his podcast, his outspokenness as a team owner – his team is suing NASCAR – and he now seems to be the driver fans love to boo during driver intros. Imagine at the awards banquet, Hamlin winning the award with 23XI Racing still in a lawsuit against NASCAR.
Stoddard: Over the past four years, it seems Larson has moved the needle with the fanbase more than any other driver. It started with his dominant 2021 championship season, and his various racing accomplishments outside of NASCAR also aid his connection with the fans. Elliott will almost certainly retain the Most Popular Driver title, but Larson is unquestionably his closest competition.
Tomlinson: Hamlin should. He interacts with fans and others on social media and he has a weekly podcast (Actions Detrimental). Kyle Busch seems to have gotten more cheers than boos in the stands in the last couple of years and would likely be a good candidate as well, even though he hasn’t won this season. But we all know who’ll be the Most Popular Driver: Elliott.
Is it concerning when a driver like Chandler Smith can have a championship-contending season but possibly be forced out with a lack of funding?
Stoddard: It is incredibly concerning for the long-term health of the sport. Fans want to get behind drivers who are both talented and relatable. They want to see stories like that of Ross Chastain, a watermelon farmer from Florida who fought tooth and nail to become a consistent Cup Series winner. The more common pay drivers become, the more it begs the question: are we watching the most talented stock drivers in the world or just the ones with the deepest pocketbooks?
Kristl: Does Chandler Smith deserve a Cup ride? Yes, more so than Daniel Hemric and Corey LaJoie. Smith ought to be a candidate for the open Front Row Motorsports seat. In the lower series though, pay-to-play drivers are rewarded with rides. Both Xfinity and Trucks have new TV deals so we will see if the TV contracts award more money to teams where talented drivers are afforded more opportunities. As for Smith, unless he’s willing to take a ride with a mid-pack to an underfunded team, he might be watching races from his couch rather than in the seat of a racecar.
Tomlinson: It’s been concerning the last several years, especially in the lower series. Unfortunately, the economy hasn’t exactly turned around, with grocery prices higher than they were a few years ago. I can only imagine what the racecar parts cost nowadays. But yes, it’s very concerning. Hattori Racing Enterprises won the Truck Series championship in 2018 with Brett Moffitt. Look at both of them now- they hardly run, at least this year. Myatt Snider and Ryan Truex have both won Xfinity races but don’t have full-time rides (which doesn’t make much sense). Something needs to be done to help drivers who deserve to be there run full time.
Damcott: Very. It’s just another case of money being a greater factor for a ride than talent. The fact that a driver with the talent that Smith has could be hanging it up at the season’s end is upsetting. Smith, in particular, is an especially disheartening case, because he’s arguably been passed up twice for a Cup Series ride at both Kaulig Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing. He deserves to land somewhere next season, hopefully not back at his father’s ranch like he said.
What are your thoughts about potentially having a NASCAR race at Qiddiya in Saudi Arabia?
Tomlinson: I was against it when I first heard about it. However, after listening to my colleagues on the Happy Hour podcast, I could see a different NASCAR series going there. Michael Massie mentioned that NASCAR went to Japan before, so I’m sure it would be possible. But when most are focused on lowering costs and bringing more money to teams to help pay their employees and run their cars, it seems out of reach financially for the Cup Series to go to Saudi Arabia at this time. If the economy improves in the next few years, then maybe.
Damcott: I have no qualms about it, especially given the timeline we’ve heard of heading there in 2030. My hope, however, is that if it is truly going to happen in 2030, NASCAR will use the next six seasons to expand its international waters with the Cup Series. It’s already heading to Mexico City next season, but if it wants to head to Saudi Arabia, it needs greater international expansion beyond North America. Perhaps it should consider heading back to Japan like it did in the 1990s before then to understand the undertaking and costs it would incur traveling overseas, before attempting such a massive trip like heading to Qiddiya.
Stoddard: On the surface, it seems far-fetched for NASCAR to race in the Middle East, especially since the sport’s international efforts are still in its infancy. On the other hand, the Saudis have dipped their toes—and billions of dollars—into several sectors of the sports industry. Whether it is the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in Formula 1 or the funding of LIV Golf, the country’s role in sports continues to grow, and a NASCAR race, even an exhibition, would be another feather in their cap. NASCAR wouldn’t made a massive paycheck as well.
Kristl: NASCAR certainly would make headlines if it held a race there, but it’s not the right move for the fanbase. Irwindale Speedway announced its closure. Auto Club Speedway sits dormant. Road America and the Milwaukee Mile lost their races and Canadian Tire Motorsports Park and other great Canadian venues are not on the schedule. What’s my point? NASCAR fans would champion races at those venues rather than be willing to part with their money to travel to Saudi Arabia to attend a Cup race. Unless NASCAR could ensure a guarantee for attendance revenue, it is highly debatable whether current fans would make the trek.
About the author
Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.
Anthony Damcott joined Frontstretch in March 2022. Currently, he is an editor and co-authors Fire on Fridays (Fridays); he is also the primary Truck Series reporter/writer and secondary short track writer. He also serves as an at-track reporter and assists with social media when he can. A proud West Virginia Wesleyan College alum from Akron, Ohio, Anthony is now a grad student. He is a theatre actor and fight-choreographer-in-training in his free time.
You can keep up with Anthony by following @AnthonyDamcott on X.
Andrew Stoddard joined Frontstretch in May of 2022 as an iRacing contributor. He is a graduate of Hampden-Sydney College, the University of Richmond, and VCU. He works as an athletic communications specialist at Eastern Mennonite University in Harrisonburg, Va.
Joy joined Frontstretch in 2019 as a NASCAR DraftKings writer, expanding to news and iRacing coverage in 2020. She's currently an assistant editor and involved with photos, social media and news editing. A California native, Joy was raised watching motorsports and started watching NASCAR extensively in 2001. She earned her B.A. degree in Liberal Studies at California State University Bakersfield in 2010.
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Just because Hamlin is vocal doesn’t mean he’s popular. In fact, he would practically be a shoe-in for a least popular driver award.