Is any NASCAR Cup Series playoff driver in a must-win situation at Homestead-Miami Speedway?
Kevin Nix: Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. Both drivers are more than 40 points below the cut line, and William Byron, the driver fourth in points, has a win at the track. Byron’s expectations for the weekend should be high, which means it is unlikely that Elliott and Blaney would surpass him on points. They would both have to win to have any chance.
Stephen Stumpf: Everyone below the cut. Sure, a 30-point deficit can be overcome, but there’s no wild card like Talladega Superspeedway on the schedule, and it would take a herculean effort in points plus disaster for drivers above the cut line to overcome the gap. Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott all realistically need wins to advance to the Championship 4, but the good news for them is that all four are former winners at either Homestead or Martinsville Speedway.
Mark Kristl: Reddick is one of the best at racing alongside the wall at Homestead. If he does not win there, he will be in trouble because the race at Martinsville often results in drama. Other than Reddick, all the bottom four could use a win, but if Hamlin struggles, what will his mindset be at Martinsville? Yes, he’s good there, but he’s had a ho-hum playoff run. So no, he is not in a must-win situation, but he needs a good run with maximum points.
Will Martin Truex Jr. or Kyle Busch earn a win in the final three races?
Stumpf: Better luck next year for Kyle Busch. Daytona International Speedway, Darlington Raceway and Kansas Speedway were his best shots, but the No. 8 team hasn’t shown enough speed to think it’ll be a contender for the upcoming races. It’s a long shot for Martin Truex Jr., but he still has a realistic chance. Homestead and Martinsville are two of his best tracks, and the No. 19 is finally putting complete races together, with a third at Kansas Speedway and a sixth at Las Vegas Motor Speedway after a horrendous summer. It doesn’t help that Joe Gibbs Racing will have two cars looking to win and advance to the Championship 4, but Truex will still be a factor in both races.
Kristl: Sadly, no. Truex has three wins at Martinsville, but he only has one top five in his past five races there. He’s run better at Homestead, but he has not contended for victories this year. Busch’s momentum has cooled off and his opportunities to use a split pit strategy such as at Michigan International Speedway are gone. Two greats held winless.
Nix: No. Truex seems like he already has one foot out the door, and Busch’s overall pace has slowed somewhat in the last few weeks. NASCAR is also finished with wildcard tracks for the season, meaning that a win in the last three races would almost certainly have to come on speed. Based on pace alone, I don’t see either driver getting it done, but this season has shown that anything can happen.
With three of JGR’s four NASCAR Xfinity Series cars filled, what does the future hold for Chandler Smith, Ryan Truex and Aric Almirola?
Kristl: Chandler Smith might be a candidate for Front Row Motorsports’ third ride, but the lawsuit held up those talks. If his funding is there, he will land a ride somewhere. It’d be cool to see Ryan Truex run full time for Sam Hunt Racing, but he never seems to have sufficient funding for a mid-pack ride. Aric Almirola will go where sponsorship dictates. Based on his jubilation from his recent Xfinity win, he would probably enjoy running the full-time NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series season, which has a shorter schedule.
Stumpf: Unless JGR decides to expand to five Xfinity cars, they will either leave JGR or vie for part-time slates in the fourth car. That would suit Almirola well, as he’s retired from full-time Cup and already competing in the NXS on a part-time basis. Truex has put up results worthy of a full-time shot, but if the sponsorship is not there, running a part-time slate at JGR (possibly alongside his older brother) and piecing together other part-time rides might be his best option. As for Smith, it’s looking more likely that he won’t have room for a full-time seat despite being a contender for this year’s championship. If there is no room, he’ll either have to downsize to a part-time slate or move to another team.
Nix: Smith’s future is more uncertain. I expect Truex and Almirola to share the fourth car, alongside Martin Truex Jr., John Hunter Nemechek and potentially a couple of other drivers. Smith is too talented to be racing part time, so I expect him to land somewhere else. I could see him returning to the Truck Series with TRICON Garage, as well as full time in the Xfinity Series with Hunt. He’s not quite ready for Cup yet, but one more year in Xfinity will give him the seasoning he needs.
Were you surprised fewer teams elected to attempt to stretch their fuel at Las Vegas?
Nix: Not really. My belief is that most teams were expecting a rash of cautions to come after Ty Gibbs‘ spin, so they prepared their strategy around having multiple additional caution laps. Joey Logano was playing with house money simply by being in the Round of 8, so it was unsurprising to see his team go for it. I was surprised about the race running green to the end.
Kristl: No, because creativity among crew chiefs has significantly decreased. They forget you cannot win the race by following the leader. Nevertheless, the LVMS finish was refreshing, because Logano and a few others successfully gambled for on-track positions.
Stumpf: Yes. The race ended on a 69-lap green flag run, and while that would be cutting fuel close, it could be done. Of the cars that pitted, Christopher Bell was the only one who had even a remote chance at winning, as everyone else finished more than five seconds back of the lead. Of course, it’s easy to say this in hindsight, and for teams concerned about points, topping off on fuel was a safe move. But no one ran out of fuel, and with as good of a car as Bell had, he would’ve easily won the race had he stayed out like Logano.
Mark Kristl joined Frontstretch at the beginning of the 2019 NASCAR season. He is the site's ARCA Menards Series editor. Kristl is also an Eagle Scout and a proud University of Dayton alum.
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Can find on Twitter @stephen_stumpf.
Kevin Nix has been with Frontstretch since February 2023. Hailing from Gilbert, Arizona, his dream is to be in the NASCAR media sphere full-time. He is a video assistant, working on the back end to streamline video and audio quality of all at-track interviews. Nix also writes about news every Monday for the site.
Nix graduated with a Master's Degree in Sports Journalism from ASU's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication in Phoenix, Arizona. He also has bachelor's degrees in Communications and Political Science. In his downtime, he likes to read, play video games and take walks in the Arizona weather - when it's not too hot.
Ryan Truex at JGR lol of course it will only happen if big brother agrees to run some races there too. Big brother has always helped him get a ride, otherwise he’d be 9 to 5 somewhere.