Up to Speed: Did Team Penske’s Playoff Strategy Backfire at Talladega?

Sunday’s (Oct. 6) race at Talladega Superspeedway was poised to be a big one for Team Penske.

The three-car team includes Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric — all of whom are among the best in the NASCAR Cup Series on drafting tracks. If there is one organization that you can always count on to drive to the front and lead laps at superspeedways, it’s the Penske trio.

For much of the race, everything was going according to plan for The Captain’s squad. Blaney, Logano and Cindric, who are all still in the championship hunt, were running near the front of the pack and doing a solid job managing the draft. But with the end of stage two in sight, things went sideways for Blaney, literally.

A shove from Alex Bowman knocked the No. 12 out of line and right into the path of Ross Chastain. Logano was immediately behind Chastain at the time and he ran into the back of the No. 1 as all three slid across the start/finish line to complete the stage. Blaney’s car was junked, and he was not able to continue the race.

Still, the news was not all bad. Cindric won the stage and picked up 10 valuable points in his quest to advance to the Round of 8. In addition, Logano’s damage was not serious. After a check of the front splitter and some tape to hold the hood in place, the No. 22 was back in the running. Once the final stage began, Logano zipped through the pack and joined Cindric at the front of the field, where both drivers stayed until making their final pit stops with around 20 laps to go.

As the laps ticked away, Cindric led the charge on the bottom line. Former Penske driver Brad Keselowski was pushing Cindric and Logano was pushing Keselowski.

All three were in position to challenge for the win until lap 185 when the field caught up to the lapped car of Todd Gilliland. As the pack roared past Gilliland on the backstretch, the bottom line swerved to miss him and stacked up. Keselowski was closing in quickly on Cindric as the field approached turn 3 and the No. 6 hit the No. 2 too hard in the back bumper. The contact turned Cindric sideways in front of the pack, setting off a 28-car pileup that brought out the red flag. Cindric and Logano were among the drivers in the crash who were unable to finish the race.

The final results were disastrous for the Penske drivers.

Cindric finished 32nd and now stands 11th in points, 29 below the cut line. The stage victory prevented that deficit from being any worse, but 29 is the same number of points Cindric was below the cut line before Talladega. He ultimately made no progress in a race where he appeared to have a winning car. Things were even worse for Logano, who scored no stage points and finished 33rd. He now finds himself 13 points below the cutoff in ninth. The Penske driver in the best shape right now is Blaney. Despite a 39th-place finish, he is sixth in points at 25 above the cut line.

It is never a good thing to crash out at Talladega, but the results of Sunday’s race could be particularly bad for Team Penske going forward. Last season, Blaney’s run to the championship depended on wins and good points days on the types of tracks where the No. 12 team was particularly strong. These included a win at Talladega in the Round of 12, a win at Martinsville Speedway in the Round of 8, and second in the championship event at Phoenix Raceway. What Blaney lacked in playoff points compared to the other championship contenders, he made up for with strength on superspeedways and flat tracks.

Logano took a similar path to the championship in 2022. A win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, another traditional Penske stronghold, locked Logano into the championship round. With extra time to prepare for the final race, the No. 22 team went into Phoenix guns blazing and dominated the race, allowing Logano to win his second title.

Looking back on the last two years, Penske has found a good formula for the elimination-style playoffs – play to your strengths and maximize your performance at your best tracks. This approach means that the Penske drivers do not need to be strong in every single postseason race or worry about playoff points too much as long as they can get good results at their fastest tracks.

The drawback to this strategy, especially where Talladega is concerned, is that so much is out of the drivers’ control. Success at superspeedways requires not only fast cars and skilled drafting but also strategic aggression and a lot of luck. The Penske drivers — Blaney and Logano in particular — are among the best at putting themselves in position to win races at drafting tracks. Usually, drivers who put themselves in a position to win or get good finishes more often than others will earn more wins and good finishes over time, as Blaney and Logano do.

But there is simply no way to account for what happens when a bump draft goes wrong at the end of a stage, or how the energy in the pack might change when a car gets lapped with four to go. Those unaccountable variables bit the Penske drivers on Sunday.

Now, the title hopes of the Penske trio all hinge on the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL. Blaney will need to stay out of trouble there and protect his points cushion. Logano will need a good day to advance, and Cindric either needs a win or a lot of stage points.

While Blaney won the inaugural race at the ROVAL and Logano has top 10s there in most of his starts, it is not one of the tracks that was essential to either drivers’ championship run. Penske’s playoff strategy of maximizing certain tracks will face a major test this week. If things go as badly as they did at Talladega, The Captain’s chances at three titles in a row will take a massive hit.

Bryan Gable

Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past eight years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.