Just like that, the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series concludes its Round of 16 this Saturday (Sept. 21) on the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.
The spring event at this track was one of the most chaotic and most unpredictable in recent memory. Tire wear similar to what was seen on concrete tracks in the 1990s made its way back into the series that day and ultimately Denny Hamlin took the win.
As a bettor/fantasy picker, I would certainly look at that race and who performed well. Bristol requires such a unique skill set to be great, and it takes time usually to develop that skill set. There are many, many former winners in this field on Saturday, but I think the March race should really be where you put all your chips in the basket.
Let’s look at a quick recap of last week’s race at Watkins Glen International. It certainly did not go well for me.
RIGHT ON THE MONEY | LICK YOUR WOUNDS |
Carson Hocevar (69 points scored, finished third) | Chase Elliott (19.5 points scored, finished 19th) |
Zane Smith (54 points scored, finished fifth) | Tyler Reddick (4 points scored, finished 27th) |
Kyle Larson (40 points scored, finished 12th) | Ryan Blaney (-5 points scored, finished 38th) |
As you can see, these were all fantasy related.
My bets didn’t hit and honestly I phoned those in because The Glen was so different this season than it has been in years past. However, though I didn’t have it on my bingo card, I want to give a serious “attaboy” to Hocevar and Smith for carrying a team with three of the last four series champions and this season’s regular season champion on it.
Let’s go over the DraftKings rules if you’re new.
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.
However, many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules
Fantasy Forecast
1. Denny Hamlin ($11,000)
This race really couldn’t come at a better time for Hamlin. A terrible and rotten start to this opening round finds him below the cut line and in danger of not advancing to the Round of 12.
This track almost guarantees a ticket to the next round for him, though. It is clearly one of his best tracks. He’s won four times here, including two of the last four.
Hamlin is for sure going to factor into Saturday’s finish, and you should certainly cash-in on that involvement, regardless of that hefty price tag.
2. Brad Keselowski ($9,500)
Another former champion that finds himself fighting to survive and advance is “Bad Brad.”
He’s really great at saving his tires and knows how to win here, with three to his stat line. All that is well and great, but the real reason I think you pick the No. 6 this weekend lies in that spring race.
Keselowski exhibited an enormous amount of veteran patience in marching his way to the front en route to a podium finish. He’s very likely going to need that patience. It also helps that historically, RFK Racing is very good here.
3. Martin Truex Jr. ($8,400)
Oh look, its somebody else who’s below the cut line heading into Bristol. To be honest, this is the pick I’m least sure of. Truex and Co. have had a miserable late summer/early fall in 2024.
I think I’m not among the minority that hopes this Round of 16 is a merciful end to an incredible playoff career, but I still think MTJ will give it a great fight. He also secured a podium finish here in March.
He’s relatively a cheap date this weekend too, so even if he just slightly underwhelms, he’s worth the roster spot.
4. Alex Bowman ($7,600)
Bowman has had a pretty great start to his playoffs in comparison to the first three drivers on this list. Quietly building a 41 point buffer to the cut line proves just how well he’s been running and I think he continues to do so at Bristol this weekend.
He finished fifth here in the spring, and has a consistent style that fits the tire conservation that will be required to finish well here.
5. Daniel Suarez ($6,900)
I’m picking Suarez this week for two reasons.
The first is the fact that he somehow always runs around fifth-20th here, whether it’s on dirt or concrete. He’s also got a huge lead on the cutline which is a big surprise in and of itself, meaning he can take risks that guys like Hamlin and Keselowski can’t afford to.
The second is how well he played the tire game at Richmond Raceway a few weeks ago. The No. 99 has been the lead dog at Trackhouse Racing since that night it seems, and I think he’ll remain that way Saturday night.
6. Ryan Preece ($6,400)
What a steal here for $6,400.
I don’t think I could’ve rounded out the lineup better at this salary. Preece may not have a ride yet next season, but what he does have is a good record here at The Last Great Colosseum.
In the spring he finished 14th, one of the few highlights of his season. He also owns an outstanding 15.3 career average finish here, better than a lot of big names in the sport. Names like Reddick, Bubba Wallace and William Byron are on that list.
Great low price for a solid final choice this week.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Chris Buescher (+1600) to win: Buescher has a lot going in his favor this week. He won last weekend at The Glen, and he’s won the summer race here before. He also has a tendency to win races in bunches. He won back-to-back races last season as well at Richmond and Michigan International Speedway.
- Bowman (+2800) to win: Bowman was the fastest man in “Thunder Valley” Friday evening. Again, he’s been sneaky good here in the recent past and has put in an incredibly solid Round of 16 effort. Don’t be surprised if this one pays off big for someone, I just hope it’s you.
- Josh Berry (+3000) to win: Berry was super impressive here in the spring, and I expect that theme to remain the same this weekend. They’ve been steadily building momentum over at Stewart-Haas Racing, and I think they could possibly have one more win in them before they close their doors at season’s end.
About the author
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
Follow on X @Cook_g9
A daily email update (Monday through Friday) providing racing news, commentary, features, and information from Frontstretch.com
We hate spam. Your email address will not be sold or shared with anyone else.