The hunt for a championship leads to the twists and turns of Watkins Glen International Speedway as the NASCAR Cup Series returns for the second round of the 2024 playoffs this weekend.
From a fantasy and betting perspective, you’d think this would be a pretty easy week, but I’ve got news for you folks …
It isn’t.
This time around, NASCAR is bringing a brand new tire compound that has been proven in testing to produce immense amounts of tire fall-off. This should create more passing opportunities and create far more chaos and strategic plays that make this one very tricky.
Let me be your guide this week, as all the statistics and notes from past road course races and such are pretty much useless. It’s still a good idea to pick the guys who’ve proven adept at this style of racing, but look closer at races like the spring event at Bristol Motor Speedway and the most recent event at Richmond International Raceway for clues.
The drivers and teams who managed that tire wear chess match the best may just be a factor at The Glen this week.
Here’s a quick look back at how I did at Atlanta Motor Speedway last week. Not a super strong week by any means, but not bad overall.
| RIGHT ON THE MONEY | LICK YOUR WOUNDS |
| Daniel Suarez (75 points scored, finished second) | Josh Berry (-8 points scored, finished 28th) |
| Ryan Blaney (51 points scored, finished third) | Harrison Burton (-7 points scored, finished 31st) |
| Chase Elliott (46 points scored, finished eighth) | Austin Cindric (+2000) to win |
Honorable mention to the pick of Corey LaJoie, who scored 40 points en route to a 15th-place finish. Truly a bad break with Austin Cindric, though, who looked unstoppable at times at the narrow drafting track. Alas, this is a whole new week, and before we get to the lineup, here are the scoring rules.
Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.
However many spots drivers lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.
DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules
Fantasy Forecast
1. Kyle Larson ($10,500)
For a lot of folks, this is their favorite to win the title. But those hopes took a hit when Larson’s No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro crashed hard into the outside wall last week at Atlanta.
To those people, I say there is no need for alarm.
Hendrick Motorsports has dominated this racetrack for the last six seasons, dating back to Chase Elliott‘s first win back in 2018. Larson himself is a two-time winner here over that span. After last week’s poor finish, expect this team and driver to unload fast and stay that way.
However, it will be up to Larson to conserve his tires efficiently and stay out of trouble, something he’s had trouble with this season.
2. Chase Elliott ($10,000)
Might as well double down by taking the two champions in the Hendrick stable.
I’ve covered in this column each time there’s a road course race why you should take this driver: seven career road course wins (most among active drivers), career average finish of 9.0 on road courses, etc.
However, there’s another reason this is a good pick. If there’s anybody in the sport who’s cerebral enough to conserve his tires and his race car, it’s him. This is one of his best tracks, and you’d be silly to leave him off your lineup this week.
3. Tyler Reddick ($9,500)
Historically, Reddick hasn’t been all that good here, even though he’s been one of the best road course racers on the circuit for some time now.
Yet I also think it’s not a good idea to write off 23XI’s lead Toyota Camry this week. He was able to survive Atlanta and come away with a decent finish, and though he hasn’t won a road course race since winning at Circuit of the Americas last season, he’s always a threat.
Reddick also has the advantage of being exposed to this tire compound already. He participated in the tire test here earlier this season, and according to reports, he had a tough time, spinning out pretty frequently.
That advantage and his prowess on this track make him a must pick this weekend.
4. Ryan Blaney ($7,400)
The defending champion left Atlanta with a 54-point cushion over the cut line and momentum in his pocket.
Now he’s not known as a prolific road course racer at all, hence the low price tag attached to him this week. While most of Blaney’s value lies in his low salary, there’s more to this pick as well.
He has a career average finish of 13.0 at The Glen, and finished ninth in this race a year ago. I’m not saying he’s going to win, but you just can’t pass up stats like that from a Cup Series champion for this low price.
5. Carson Hocevar ($6,200)
A top-heavy lineup like this doesn’t leave you with much wiggle room on the back half.
Therefore I recommend these next two guys because they’re cheap and aren’t bad at this style of racing. Starting with Hocevar, he was pretty good in the Craftsman Truck Series on road courses, despite never winning.
As for his three Cup Series starts on road courses this season, his worst finish was 24th at the Chicago street course. That is just solid enough for me to reason that he’ll bring with him at least a few points for position differential.
6. Zane Smith ($5,700)
It wasn’t all that long ago that this guy was also doing extremely well on road courses in the Truck Series.
While his future in the sport remains uncertain, what is certain is that Smith is a solid option for a bargain at $5,700. He has two career Truck Series wins on road courses, albeit on very different tracks from The Glen.
His value will present itself in position differential as well, just like Hocevar. He has finished all three of his road courses starts in 2024 inside the top 20. Not bad for a bottom dollar pick.
Prop Bets and Locks
- Juan Pablo Montoya (+3000) to win: There is absolutely no way in hell I’m passing up the opportunity to bet this on this racing legend. Out of nowhere, Montoya will make his first Cup Series start since 2014 at a place that he had most of his stock car racing success. This is a long shot, but it’s fun. Be fun and bet this with me.
- Daniel Suarez (+1600) to finish as top Chevrolet: Suarez was, in fact, the top finishing Chevy driver last week. While Atlanta has undoubtedly become his best track, he’s not too shabby on the road courses. A low risk, high reward bet here.
- Austin Cindric (+1100) to finish in the top three: Cindric has some momentum going after a fantastic run at Atlanta that saw him up front all race. Like Suarez, he’s also a very adept driver on road courses, with multiple wins on this track type in his Xfinity Series career.
Garrett joined Frontstretch as a news writer in 2023, and became a fantasy racing and betting writer in 2024. Hailing from the heart of coal country in southern West Virginia, he's a married father of three and currently enrolled in the Physical Therapy Assistant Program at New River Community Technical College in Beaver, WV.
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