1. Will the final laps of Atlanta prove to be costly for Ty Gibbs?
Entering the playoffs tied for the fewest playoff points, Ty Gibbs needed to find himself ahead of the curve by the end of the opening race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
He had a modest first half with three stage points scattered through the first two stages, but he then came to life in the final stage, leading a total of 37 laps and leading as late as four laps to go. He had fallen back to fifth by the time Noah Gragson’s crash with two to go set up an overtime restart, and in the final two-lap shootout, Gibbs sunk all the way back to 17th.
What could’ve been a potential first Cup win or a huge day on the cut line instead ended with a mediocre finish and the No. 54 team just one point to the good. Gibbs has now led 503 laps in his Cup career, and he now ranks third all-time in laps led among non-winners in Cup, only trailing Joe Ruttman (807) and Mike Skinner (1,029).
It’s certainly not an ideal spot for Gibbs the next two races, but luckily for him, the next two races at Watkins Glen International and Bristol Motor Speedway are among his best tracks.
He finished fifth at Watkins Glen a year ago after running top five for the entire race, and he also finished fifth at Bristol last September, leading 102 laps in a race that was dominated by Joe Gibbs Racing.
Gibbs did even better at Bristol in March, as he led 137 laps, swept both stages and had control of the race in the final stage until a flat tire under green (among the many flat tires that day) cost him precious time and relegated him back to ninth, one lap down.
On paper, Gibbs easily has the pedigree and the speed to advance to the Round of 12. But Watkins Glen and Bristol are both wild cards in their own ways, and if the No. 54 team runs into the trouble in either race, the 15-ish points that Gibbs lost in the Atlanta finish could prove to be costly.
2. Is this Chase Elliott’s best chance of returning to victory lane on a road course?
In the early 2000s, it seemed inevitable that Dale Earnhardt Jr. or a Dale Earnhardt Inc. car would win at Daytona International Speedway or Talladega Superspeedway. In the mid-2010s, it seemed all but certain that Kevin Harvick would dominate at Phoenix Raceway en route to the win. And at road courses at the turn of the last decade, Chase Elliott was the man, as he scored wins in five of the six road course races held between August 2018 and October 2020.
The only race that he failed to win in that stretch was at Sonoma Raceway in 2019, where he blew an engine after running in the top three the entire day.
That’s quite the domination. Elliott added two more road courses wins in 2021 to bump his total to seven, and at the age of 25, it seemed inevitable that he would break Jeff Gordon‘s all-time record of nine road course wins in Cup.
But ever since scoring his seventh at Road America on Fourth of July weekend in 2021, Elliott has gone 0-for-19 on the twisties.
He may not be the dominant road racing force of the past, but it’s not like Elliott has forgotten how to run well on them. He’s scored three runner-up finishes on road courses since his Road America win in 2021, and he was all but guaranteed to win at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL in 2022 until he got spun on a late restart after a caution came out for a piece of sponsor signage falling onto the track surface.
He’s also led the second-most laps on road courses in the Next Gen era, only trailing three-time road course winner Tyler Reddick.
The only drivers of the Next Gen era of that list that have failed to win on a road course? Elliott in second, Joey Logano in eighth and Denny Hamlin in 10th.
It feels like Elliott’s eighth road course win is right over the horizon, and if there’s ever a time for him the snap the three-year skid, it’s this weekend at Watkins Glen.
Arguably his best road course, Elliott scored back-to-back dominant wins in 2018 and 2019 until the track was removed from the 2020 schedule due to COVID-19 precautions. He finished second to Kyle Larson in 2021 after spending the entire race making up ground from early mechanical issues, and he finished fourth in 2022 after he was moved out of the way by Larson with five laps remaining.
Last year was a race to forget after the team ran out of fuel and stalled in the middle of the race, but it’s the only blemish in Elliott’s exceptional record at the Glen. Hendrick Motorsports is also looking for its sixth Watkins Glen win in a row, as the team has been undefeated in Upstate New York since 2018.
Furthermore, the tires available to the teams this week are reported to have more than two seconds of lap time falloff per run, which would only work to Elliott’s benefit. His M.O. at the peak of his road course dominance was conserving his tires and equipment before running away from the field with blistering lap times during long runs.
Elliott may not have the speed this season (only one win and 213 laps led) that he’s had in years past, but he’s been one of the best at maximizing his finish week in and week out with the second-best average finish of all drivers this season behind Reddick. And if the tires wear as much as advertised, the stars might align for Elliott to return to victory lane.
3. How will Connor Zilisch fare in his Xfinity debut with JRM?
Shane van Gisbergen will enter Saturday’s (Sept. 14) NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen as the easy favorite, but if there’s anyone that can give him a run for his money, it’s Connor Zilisch.
The 18-year-old rising star will be attempting his Xfinity debut in JR Motorsports’ No. 88 car in preparation for a full-time slate in 2025, and if you aren’t already familiar with his racing pedigree and his road-racing expertise, it’s quite a sight to behold:
- 2024 24 Hours of Daytona co-winner (LMP2 class)
- 2024 12 Hours of Sebring co-winner (LMP2 class)
- Four wins and a runner-up finish in five ARCA Menards Series starts this season
- Scored pole and fourth-place finish in NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series debut at Circuit of the Americas in March
- Signed by Trackhouse Racing as a development driver earlier this year
His big introduction into the stock car racing world came at Watkins Glen a year ago, as he dominated the ARCA race with a broken sway bar and only lost to Jesse Love on a bump-and-run in the final corner before the checkered flag.
And while he finished fourth in his Truck debut, he could’ve been a serious contender for the win if he hadn’t made a mistake in the first corner that took him off the lead lap. He was at one point running lap times nearly two seconds faster than the rest of the field while running in the back, but he ran out of time to complete a comeback.
Yes, Zilisch probably won’t beat van Gisbergen straight up since he doesn’t have the experience of running these cars. But Zilisch has shown the talent and the race pace of a veteran on road courses in multiple series and disciplines, and it’s not out of the question that he could compete for a top-five finish or run in the top five all day.
If he’s able to remain calm and minimize race-altering mistakes like the one at COTA in March, he’ll go far in his debut weekend.
4. Why is the Watkins Glen Cup race so short?
When writing this column, I was initially going to remark about how abnormally long the Xfinity race is.
Why? Because if you aren’t aware, most Xfinity races usually run to half or two-thirds of the distance of the accompanying Cup race the next day. Watkins Glen is an exception to that rule, as the Xfinity race is a whopping 82 laps in comparison to the Cup race’s 90.
It seemed bizarre to have a secondary race that’s almost as long as the Sunday show, until I did some digging about race times for Watkins Glen on the Cup side. And from that research, I was left wondering why the Cup race is as short as it currently is.
Last year’s one-caution Watkins Glen race made history as the shortest Cup race of the modern era, clocking in at a run time of one hour, 58 minutes and 44 seconds — a time short enough that you could watch the 2006 movie Cars and switch the channel back in time to see the final lap of the race.
While last year’s race without stage breaks was certainly an aberration, Watkins Glen has consistently been a quick race on the stopwatch. Since 2008, every Watkins Glen race has been completed in less than two hours and 30 minutes; the lone exception is 2013, which was completed in 2:32.
On the other hand, in the 59 non-rain-shortened races since the start of the 2023 Cup season, there were only two races shorter than 2:30: the aforementioned Watkins Glen race clocking in at 1:58, and the one-caution race at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course last season, which had a runtime of 2:09.
| Race Time | # of Races |
| Less than 2.5 hours | 2 |
| 2.5 hours to 3 hours | 14 |
| 3 hours to 3.5 hours | 34 |
| 3.5 hours to 4 hours | 6 |
| More than 4 hours | 3 |
In other words, the last 17 Watkins Glen races were completed faster than all but one of full-distance Cup races run since 2023, and the one race that was faster occurred at a track (Indy road course) that’s no longer on the schedule.
While the debate still exists as to whether races should be shorter or longer than they currently are, having a full race wrapped in just over two hours feel far too short, especially for the at-track fans that paid good money to see their favorite stars hit the track. A time between two-and-a-half and three hours could function as a better sweet spot, and Watkins Glen should be bumped up to either 95 or 100 laps in order to achieve it.
Stephen Stumpf is the NASCAR Content Director for Frontstretch and is a three-year veteran of the site. His weekly column is “Stat Sheet,” and he formerly wrote "4 Burning Questions" for three years. He also writes commentaries, contributes to podcasts, edits articles and is frequently at the track for on-site coverage.
Can find on Twitter @stephen_stumpf.
RIverside was FIVE HUNDRED MILES and FIVE PLUS HOURS! Today’s so-called “racers” wouldn’t want to handle it.
Riverside ran 500-mile races until the mid 70s when it was shortened to 500 kilometers. My guess is the drivers finally convinced the track operators that 500 miles is an insane distance to run in dusty southern California.
Maybe switch the lengths of the Charlotte Roval race with this, and might be better. That is 400K or 250 miles.
I definitely feel the road course races should be longer.
They have to fit in the TV time slot.
Time slot should be increased to the same as other races, then. 100 laps would be great.
The Cup race at Watkins Glen has been 90 laps since the track was added back to the schedule in 1986. This strange issue has been a thing since the now-Xfinity Series race was extended to 200 miles in 1995 (it was originally 150 miles or 62 laps).
As Watkins Glen’s short course is considered to be the fastest permanent road course in the United States, I personally believe that this should be at least 250 miles (roughly 102 laps), especially now that it isn’t so hard on the drivers since the curb entering the Inner Loop has been changed. I’m open to a little more beyond that as well.
Actually a bulk of the Super GT Series events in Japan are 250-400 kilometers
on permanent terrain road courses where they finish up typically in 2:30-3:00
hours at most with the exception being the Suzuka 1000 which took 9 or 10
hours to complete.
How many TV time-outs do they have? They are actually “races”.