For those mathematically inclined, we’re exactly two thirds through the arduous slog that is the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Just two races remain before the playoff field is set and we begin the process of crowning the 2024 champion.
Thirteen drivers are locked in, courtesy of those all-important race win(s), and three final places are up for grabs. And with the very definition of a wild card race at Daytona International Speedway under the Saturday night lights this weekend (Aug. 24), there’s still time for a wheelman well below the cut line to race their way into the postseason.
So as thoughts turn to who will be the driver celebrating on the championship stage at Phoenix Raceway on November 10th, I can’t help but wonder if, like last year with Ryan Blaney, we’ll be celebrating a first-time champ. With that in mind, here are four drivers who might just win an inaugural title.
Tyler Reddick
To say Tyler Reddick has been on a heater of late would be putting it mildly. He leads the series in top fives (11) — two ahead of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson — and he also leads the series in top 10s (17) by a landslide; William Byron and Christopher Bell are tied for second with 13.
He also holds the best average finish (10.5) by a nose from Chase Elliott (10.6), and in his last seven races has finished sixth, third, second, sixth, second, third and first.
And, as team owner Hamlin noted (and yes, albeit he has a vested interest): “‘Hey, this is Week 24. You don’t lead the standings at Week 24 on a fluke. This isn’t early season, and you just had a couple good races, whatever. This is sustained consistency week in and week out.”
Now there’s an argument to be made that he’s peaking a bit too soon, but the fact is he’s been fast all season on all types of tracks. Provided he continues to do what he’s done since February, there’s no reason to expect a drop off.
A big advantage for Reddick this year will be the bonus points that carry over between the first three rounds. Last year he came into the playoffs with nine. This year it could be three times that amount, if not more, and that makes a huge difference. When Hamlin started 23XI, he talked about a five-year plan with consistent race-winning performances and running for the title by year five. Reddick might just bring that strategy forward by an entire year.
Christopher Bell
In 2023, it was a case of final-race heartbreak for Bell when a brake rotor failure ended his day prematurely just 108 laps into the 312 scheduled laps.
“Well, I mean that was my first time I’ve ever exploded a rotor in my career,” said a disconsolate Bell after a trip to the infield car center.
It was Bell’s second straight final four appearance, and he was the only driver to make it back to the championship race from the quartet that competed for the crown in 2022.
Worth noting, too, that Bell secured a dominant win at the Phoenix Raceway in March. Bell came from 20th place on a restart with 91 laps to go to win going away by just under six seconds.
In addition, Bell has performed extremely well at similar tracks. He won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, could have won at World Wide Technology Raceway — were it not for a late engine issue as he chased down Blaney for the lead — and had an extremely fast car at Richmond Raceway until a speeding penalty a few weeks back.
And while it’s not always the case, sometimes you have to lose a championship to win one, so don’t be surprised if the third time’s the charm in the final race for the Joe Gibbs Racing wheelman in his fifth-full time season.
William Byron
Willy B started the season on fire, winning the Great American Race and then following it up with wins at the Circuit of the Americas and Martinsville Speedway. That gave him three wins in the first eight races.
Since then, the Hendrick Motorsports wheelman has cooled off somewhat from his heady start to the year, but there’s no question he’ll be a threat to go deep into the postseason. Indeed, Byron could and should, perhaps, have won the race on Monday at Michigan International Speedway, instead settling for the runner-up spot.
“Second sucks, but really proud of the effort, though,” he noted post-race. “I feel like we’ve been trying to put weeks together like this, and this is a really good step.”
And that observation should send shudders through his competitors. In the last four seasons, Byron has finished 14th, 10th, sixth and third in the overall standings, making his first Championship 4 in 2023. On that day, Byron finished fourth, but he started on pole, led 95 laps (the second most) and acquitted himself more than favorably. Is this his year? Quite possibly.
Denny Hamlin
And finally, in the hope springs eternal category, there’s James Dennis Alan Hamlin — everybody’s favorite pantomime villain.
Hamlin has had a stellar first-ballot Hall of Fame career, winning 54 times (including three Daytona 500s), but as all his haters will be more than happy to tell you, he’s never won the biggest prize.
In keeping with his two-decade-long career, Hamlin has been a threat to win most weeks this season: he has three wins (plus the Busch Clash), the second most top fives with nine and has led the most laps (896) of any driver this season.
The JGR veteran has missed out on the final four the past two seasons (don’t forget, too, he was a victim of the Hail Melon move) after making it in both 2020 and 2021. Five times in his career Hamlin has made the final race with a shot to win it all. Could this year be lucky number seven? You never know.
Danny starts his 12th year with Frontstretch in 2018, writing the Tuesday signature column 5 Points To Ponder. An English transplant living in San Francisco, by way of New York City, he’s had an award-winning marketing career with some of the biggest companies sponsoring sports. Working with racers all over the country, his freelance writing has even reached outside the world of racing to include movie screenplays.