Even as the NASCAR Cup Series takes a two-week break, life is not easy for drivers on the brink of the playoffs. Most of the postseason field is set by the 12 drivers who have won a race so far. The last four spots will go to anyone else who can earn a win in the four remaining races of the regular season, followed by the highest winless drivers in points.
Of the competitors without a win in 2024, Martin Truex Jr. is in the best shape with a 108-point advantage above the cut line. Even if Truex does not win, he is unlikely to lose a points cushion of that size in four races. Ty Gibbs is next on the list at 42 points to the good. Engine issues in the last two races have cost Gibbs valuable points, but he still has a good opportunity to qualify for his first Cup Series playoffs.
After that, things start to get dicey. Chris Buescher holds the next-to-last spot in the playoff grid at 17 points above the cut line. Ross Chastain is the bubble driver by just seven points over Bubba Wallace.
A month ago, the gap between Chastain and Wallace was nearly 100 points, but the past four races have erased Wallace’s deficit. Crashes at Nashville Superspeedway and Pocono Raceway have disrupted Chastain’s consistent season, and he and the No. 1 team did not score a top-10 finish during that time.
On the other hand, Wallace has been very efficient in collecting points. He has not finished worse than 13th in the last four races and won his first stage of the season during the Brickyard 400. Even though wins by drivers like Joey Logano and Alex Bowman pushed the cut line further up the standings, Wallace still has a chance.
So, knowing that the playoff points battle is tight, who gets in? Will Wallace be able to overtake Chastain in the final weeks of the regular season, or can Chastain turn things around before it’s too late? Does any driver near the bubble have any advantage when looking ahead to the next four races?
The regular season will conclude with stops at Richmond Raceway, Michigan International Speedway, Daytona International Speedway, and Darlington Raceway. Based on that list, Buescher and the No. 17 team should be excited. They won Richmond, Michigan and Daytona last year in a late summer hot streak that gave Buescher huge momentum for the playoffs. Even Darlington could be big for Buescher, who had a shot to win the 400-mile race there earlier this year until contact with Tyler Reddick ended his bid for the victory.
Races like Darlington have been the story of Buescher’s season. He has been close to winning a few times, but things have not fallen his way in the final laps. Recall how Buescher’s wins last year involved either taking control of a race on a late restart or, in the case of Michigan, holding off a late charge from Truex. The No. 17 team has not done anything differently than it did last year, but those super-close late-race scenarios, like the incident at Darlington with Reddick or the photo finish with Kyle Larson at Kansas Speedway, have all swung the other direction. Buescher could still make a deep run in the postseason like he did in 2023, but he needs a little bit of luck over the next few races to secure his spot.
Chastain, meanwhile, needs not only luck but to figure out how to stop the bleeding. He probably got the worst outcome of Nashville’s late-race chaos, getting passed for the lead with seven scheduled laps to go, then getting wrecked on the first overtime attempt. The Pocono crash did not help matters, but if the No. 1 team slides out of the playoffs in the next four weeks, Nashville is going to be a huge what-if.
The remainder of the regular season provides some good opportunities for Chastain. Richmond and Michigan have been mixed bags during his career in competitive equipment. He is typically fast at Daytona but has not often earned the finishes to show for his efforts. As a case in point, Chastain was challenging for the win in this year’s Daytona 500, but a spin on the last lap dropped him to 21st in the final finishing order. Darlington is another track where Chastain typically has a lot of speed but has ended a few promising races with wrecked cars. The No. 1 team’s playoff hopes will hinge on how many points they can get out of Daytona and Darlington. If Chastain makes the postseason, it could happen via another dramatic highlight reminiscent of the Hail Melon.
As for Wallace, he and the No. 23 team will be faced with some tough decisions over the next few races about whether to go for wins or points. Richmond has not historically been a good track for him, but he earned points in the first two stages of the last two Richmond races. Wallace also has four consecutive top-10 finishes at Darlington, where maximizing points could make a big difference in a tight race. But if Wallace finds himself with a chance to win at Michigan or Daytona, he will have to go for the victory. A possible win got away from him at Michigan two years ago, and he has finished in the top five at Daytona five times, including three second-place results. Now is the time for Wallace to break through and end a long winless drought.
Each remaining race of the regular season offers the potential to shake up the points battle. If the trends of the last few months continue through Labor Day, then Buescher should scrape together enough points to reach the postseason. For the last playoff spot, Wallace currently has the upper hand over Chastain considering how much ground he has made up in the last few weeks. That said, betting against Chastain has proven foolish a few times in recent years. If the off weeks give the No. 1 team a chance to regroup, expect the battle for the final playoff spots to come right down to the wire.
Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past eight years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.
It certainly won’t be Kyle Busch with the way he’s running this year. The only hope he has to make the playoffs, is if he happens to pull out a win.