If you were a NASCAR driver with dreams of winning the NASCAR Cup Series championship in 2024, would you rather be in Chase Elliott’s or William Byron’s position?
Would you take Byron, already a three-time winner this season with a bundle of playoff points? Or would you rather be Elliott, this season’s master of consistency within striking distance of the overall points lead?
Under the current championship system, featuring an elimination-style postseason and playoff points, we have learned that there is no single way to win a title.
Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. did it with wins and overwhelming speed. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano won the last two championships with strong momentum that progressively built during the playoffs. Kyle Busch earned his championship in 2019 largely by making the fewest mistakes among the title contenders. Some postseasons may echo others, but each run to the championship is always a little different.
The biggest key to success in the current format is that playoff points carry a lot of weight. The drivers who stockpile them in the regular season have a better shot at the championship even if they have a few bad postseason races.
From that standpoint, you would think that Byron has the upper hand over Elliott. Byron has banked 16 playoff points, the vast majority of those coming through his three wins. He will likely earn several more at the conclusion of the regular season, depending on where he places in overall points after the Southern 500.
Elliott only has six playoff points banked, mostly from his victory at Texas Motor Speedway. However, he could earn an additional 10 by finishing second in the regular season. Elliott could also catch Larson for the regular-season championship, who he trails by 20 points with seven races to go. That would give Elliott an additional 15 playoff points on top of what he has already earned. Byron is 94 points behind Larson and unlikely to win the regular season title.
If you are wondering how Elliott could be ahead of Byron with two fewer wins, look no further than Sunday’s (June 30) race at Nashville Superspeedway. Byron started in the top 10 but was unable to move forward for most of the afternoon. Crew chief Rudy Fugle and the No. 24 team made more frequent pit stops as the race went on, trying to get the car handling better, but they never got things to click.
Things worsened during the first overtime attempt when Byron was collected in the big crash triggered by Larson clipping Ross Chastain. Byron slammed into the back of Daniel Hemric’s Chevrolet and was forced to limp to the finish. He ended the day 19th in a forgettable race for the No. 24 team.
Elliott only finished one spot better than Byron but saw a lot more action. The No. 9 started 13th and slowly went forward until Elliott spun through the infield grass on lap 219. He worked his way back through the field during the next 80 laps and missed the big crash during the first overtime attempt.
It looked like Elliott might have a shot at the win, but as the race kept getting extended, the No. 9’s fuel tank finally ran dry on the fourth overtime attempt. On the fifth and final try, Elliott spun out again during the last lap chaos but held on for 18th and somehow extended his top 20 finishing streak for another week.
Indeed, Elliott has been masterful at avoiding bad finishes, even on his worst days. Along with last weekend at Nashville, he made a similar comeback at New Hampshire Motor Speedway after getting spun by Logano at the start of the third stage. Those performances have kept Elliott within sight of the faster but more mistake-prone Larson. The No. 9 team’s top-20 streak may not continue to the playoffs, or even another week, but it feels like Elliott has a roadmap for postseason success in 2024, especially if he can snatch the regular season title away from Larson.
On the other hand, races like Nashville display the No. 24 weakness. When Byron and his team show up to the track with a fast car, they are difficult to beat. But there are other times when Byron just cannot seem to produce the speed necessary to run with the leaders, no matter what his team tries.
Additionally, those “off” races seem to be getting more common for the No. 24 team. Byron has now finished 15th or worse in four of the last five races and he has not led any laps since the Coca-Cola 600. It is not a new trend for Byron, who has become known for winning early-season races and slumping during the summer months. Last season, he turned things around quickly by scoring eight top 10s in the playoffs and advancing to the Championship 4. He is very capable of following the same path this year, but more races like Nashville will prove costly to Byron’s championship hopes.
Even though he has fewer playoff points in the bank, Elliott’s consistency has put him in a better position than Byron to compete for a title. Many people in the sanctioning body, and some fans, will turn up their noses at the idea of consistency still being relevant in the current winner-take-all era of NASCAR, but Elliott’s team is demonstrating that consistency can still be an important factor in the championship race.
If the No. 9 team finishes well over the next two months and walks away with the regular season title, it can look back on races like Nashville as a big reason why. Â
About the author
Bryan began writing for Frontstretch in 2016. He has penned Up to Speed for the past seven years. A lifelong student of auto racing, Bryan is a published author and automotive historian. He is a native of Columbus, Ohio and currently resides in Southern Kentucky.
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Your right, adjusting Byron’s car during a race does see to be a big problem. Maybe it’s time for Jeff to have Byron’s team set the car up more like Larson’s before each race as the two drivers drive a lot alike. I don’t know. Just so hamlins choking continues.