With Ryan Blaney and the No. 12 Team Penske’s first season win Sunday at Iowa Speedway, the defending 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champions finally closed the door on a complete race this season.
From finishing second to Daniel Suarez in Atlanta in the closest three-wide NASCAR Cup Series finish ever, to inexplicably running out of fuel at World Wide Technology Raceway two weeks ago, it has been a bit of a drag for the team.
Following that win, crew chief Jonathan Hassler was confident that the No. 12 team was about to get on a roll and become “the team of the summer.” Is Hassler’s bunch that team? This week, Luken Glover and Vito Pugliese forecast the next few months in 2-Headed Monster.
You’re Not That Guy, Pal…
When Ryan Blaney won the Iowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol Sunday night, crew chief Jonathan Hassler was obviously excited. After throwing away a win two weeks prior by running out of fuel at Gateway, getting back in the win column for the defending champions certainly did a lot for their confidence to the point he deemed them capable of becoming The Team of the Summer.
….but are they though?
There are certainly reasons for their optimism. Ford has won three of the last five races, and the early season struggles that had many blue oval fans wringing their hands have long since been forgotten. Roush Yates engines have always been a standard bearer for horsepower, and the Ford Mustang has reportedly been given a couple of extra scoops of oats in recent weeks. Penske is also making strides, to the point that Harrison Burton in the Wood Brothers Racing-aligned No. 21 has been running about 10 positions higher than he has been the last couple of weeks.
But there are some notable threats for them to contend with – with many hailing from the Chevrolet camp.
How can you ignore Kyle Larson?
Fresh off his Coca-Cola 600 waiver, the No. 5 car was the class of the field Sunday prior to contact with Suarez that ended his chances. Larson has three wins this year and has led the most laps in the series, more than twice as many as Blaney, and he didn’t even show up for a race. His teammate William Byron was runner up Sunday, and the No. 24 team, despite a couple of stumbles in Gateway and Sonoma, has been a top-five car for the most part the last month or so.
There’s also a Chevrolet driver who will be showing up to the Chicago street race to defend his win from last year’s inaugural event. Shane van Gisbergen has proven he’s a threat at ANY road course with his success thus far in the Xfinity Series, and now that he’s had some additional NASCAR experience under his Nomex Velcro belt, he’ll be an even more formidable force.
That’s getting a little ahead of ourselves however. There’s two races preceding Chicago: Loudon this weekend and Nashville Superspeedway to follow. Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have largely dominated the last two years at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and Nashville has been exclusively won by Chevrolet — Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott in 2021 and 2022, and Ross Chastain in 2023.
Granted, every race is a new opportunity, and with the constant evolution of the Gen 7 car, you can’t always rely on history as predictor. Which is good, since Ford has won only twice at Pocono Raceway since 2017: Blaney’s first Cup Series win seven years ago, and Kevin Harvick during the pandemic season of 2020. A big horsepower track to be sure, as well as Indianapolis Motor Speedway – once again an oval format – could be favorable to the Fords.
Besides – are you really going to bet against Penske at Indy in a 2.5-mile configuration?
That momentum however, may be short-lived.
Due to the Olympics, there is two-week hiatus for the Cup Series following Indianapolis the third week in July. A schedule break reminiscent of the early 1990s, this was a chance for teams to bring a new car, updated aero, or an engine change after a short break that benefited everyone. If they do go on a roll, that could play a part in slowing things down as well.
This isn’t meant to rain the parade of the No. 12 team, Ryan Blaney, or his 80 fans in attendance in Iowa that got to see their guy pull off the first Cup Series win in Newton. As good as they’ve been, it’s still hard to overlook the No. 5 team, and the tracks coming up that might favor the competition – on paper. – Vito Pugliese
The Force Is Strong With This One
There are a whole lot of “ifs” in racing, but let’s re-examine one. If Ryan Blaney had not run out of gas at World Wide Technology Raceway, we would be talking about him as the winner of two of the past three races, and the notion of being the team of the summer gains even more strength.
Now, that didn’t happen, obviously, but aside from the attention of his fuel tank is the mere fact that he was almost one lap away from victory lane. He didn’t throw the race away by making a mistake. You could argue his team did, but Blaney put himself in position to win.
A little over two weeks later, we are a couple days removed from the most dominating performance of Blaney’s career, as he led a career-high 201 laps to claim the inaugural win at Iowa Speedway.
The week before Iowa, Blaney earned top fives in both stages and finished seventh at Sonoma Raceway. That should be expected from a reigning champion, but it’s the fact that Team Penske has severely struggled at road courses with the Next Gen car that makes the result more impressive. Before Sonoma, the team had 11 top 10s in 36 combined starts among the trio of Blaney, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric.
But what’s worth noting even more is the past few weeks for Blaney. The results may scatter from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows, but a deep dive extracts more. If you go back to Darlington Raceway, Blaney started 17th and worked his way into the top 10 by the end of the first stage. However, he was an innocent bystander to a crash to begin stage two.
After a top five in the All-Star Race, he went to the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway as the defending winner. Once again, he started mid-pack, but worked his way into the top 10 by the end of the stage. Yet another incident out of his control took him out of that race in stage two.
That leads into the last three weeks, bringing us back to the near-win at Gateway, his Sonoma top 10, and Iowa domination.
How did he win the championship last year? By getting on a hot streak, finishing in the top two in the final three races and finishing sixth or better in five of the last six events. That run has molded Blaney into a wiser, more focused driver who has finally learned how to close the deal when the race is in his hands.
Two other prime factors stand out for a hot stretch in the summer. One concerns Blaney’s history at the tracks that comprise the final nine races of the regular season. He has won at three of them, and tracks like New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway should fit right in his wheelhouse.
The other factor is the recent boon of Ford’s performance. After a well-documented winless streak in the first 12 races, the blue oval has won three of the past five points races, with runner-ups in the other two cases. Add in Logano’s All-Star win, and it has won four of the last six events.
What helps Blaney’s case is the speed he showed before Ford finally found victory lane. While his Penske teammates lagged behind, Stewart-Haas Racing struggled, and RFK Racing couldn’t get both drivers on the same page. Blaney was arguably the best of the bunch, earning three top fives in the first five races. Now that he has a win under the belt, it would be no surprise to see him carry the banner for the manufacturer this summer.
Could Blaney’s team experiment to gear him up to defend his 2023 crown? It’s possible, but given Hassler’s comments on the radio in the aftermath of the Iowa victory, this team appears determined to put the garage on notice for several weeks to come.
“We talked about that during the off-season of, ‘Hey, let’s focus on these summer months,” Blaney said. “Let’s not go through that little dip like we did last year. Just utilize the summer months a little better than what we did.’”
The summer is one of the most grueling stretches of the season, with hotter temperatures, the pressure to either lock up a playoff spot or build up points, and no off-week until the Olympic break. It’s in those moments where experience and grit step up, and this No. 12 team looks poised to grasp those. – Luken Glover
About the author
Vito is one of the longest-tenured writers at Frontstretch, joining the staff in 2007. With his column Voice of Vito (monthly, Fridays) he’s a contributor to several other outlets, including Athlon Sports and Popular Speed in addition to making radio appearances. He forever has a soft-spot in his heart for old Mopars and presumably oil-soaked cardboard in his garage.
Luken Glover joined the Frontstretch team in 2020 as a contributor, furthering a love for racing that traces back to his earliest memories. Glover inherited his passion for racing from his grandfather, who used to help former NASCAR team owner Junie Donlavey in his Richmond, Va. garage. A 2023 graduate from the University of the Cumberlands, Glover is the author of "The Underdog House," contributes to commentary pieces, and does occasional at-track reporting. Additionally, Glover enjoys working in ministry, coaching basketball, playing sports, and karting.
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Blaney won the last event. Doesn’t that mean he is the latest title favourite?