Two big signings for Red Bull over the past couple of weeks have raised many questions about the organization.
Sergio Perez has been confirmed to remain with Red Bull Racing in a multiyear contract renewal that runs through 2026. A few days later, Yuki Tsunoda was confirmed for a seat at RB in 2025.
Both signings are intriguing, with 2025 being a gap year before new regulations and new OEMs in 2026. Perez being re-upped through the first year of the new regulations shows that the team has regained faith in the Mexican driver to work as a reliable two in the one-two organizational punch with Max Verstappen.
But Perez’s re-signing also sent a message to RB and the junior team drivers: there’s very little hope of moving up to the main team anytime soon. On paper, Tsunoda should have been promoted to the main team instead of staying on the B team.
But it’s clear that Red Bull do not see Tsunoda as main team material. His status as the lead B team driver is also likely over after next season when Honda will split from Red Bull. If Tsunoda were promoted to the main team or even released, what RB would do for its second seat would be relatively easy to understand.
Instead, what we see for 2025 is a lame-duck Tsunoda and one seat open for two drivers. Daniel Ricciardo’s F1 comeback has been a roller coaster of highs and lows so far, with the team seeming more uncertain as to whether he should be back next year.
Meanwhile, Liam Lawson was mightily impressive in a substitute role last season when Ricciardo was injured. Of Tsunoda’s three teammates last year, Lawson really seemed to be the only one to be a challenge to the Japanese driver.
But this year, Lawson has been stuck in a reserve role for both Red Bull Racing and RB. The New Zealand driver should clearly be on the F1 grid, but when Ricciardo returned to RB this year, there was nowhere for him to go.
Perez’s return to Red Bull changed a lot of things concerning Ricciardo. One could have seen a scenario where Perez came out struggling, and Ricciardo continued the form he began at Mexico City last season, with Ricciardo moving up to the Red Bull seat by mid-season.
Instead, it has become clear that Ricciardo will likely never move up to the main seat and has become a marketing promotion with a helmet.
That’s not to say that Ricciardo is a terrible driver. But he has devolved into a driver that is far too hot and cold in recent seasons – often more cold than hot. He will never be a world champion, in spite of his early career promise. But, Lawson very well might.
So Red Bull is stuck now. Promote Lawson, and the team loses sponsorship. Keep Ricciardo, and let Lawson walk a year before Tsunoda likely does. Or, from a radical perspective, do something more off the wall, like promoting F2 driver Isack Hadjar, and get the worst of both worlds.
The reality? They keep Ricciardo and let Lawson walk, probably seeing Lawson move to IndyCar as no other seats are open to him. Ricciardo can still make a great run from time-to-time and has less chance of flying too high if Verstappen suddenly leaves the main team for whatever reason.
Another interesting scenario is starting to play out, and one that Red Bull might consider.
There have been reports, beginning with journalist Joe Saward, that Renault is seriously considering turning its works F1 team into a customer team for another OEM. This would mean Alpine could be on the hunt for a new OEM to buy engines from the beginning of 2026.
Finding a new OEM will be difficult, especially at this stage of the game. But Alpine has at least one seat now with Esteban Ocon leaving the team and could have another if Pierre Gasly leaves as well.
Maybe Red Bull and future OEM partner Ford could offer Alpine a deal for a seat? That would allow Lawson to stay under Red Bull for a potential move to RB for 2026 instead of spending another year on the sidelines, which most young drivers never come back from.
If they have to produce a third set of engines starting in 2026, it would potentially hurt the Red Bull operation in general. But letting Lawson go would, in some ways, do more damage to the Red Bull operation. Tsunoda would remain the last Red Bull junior to get a chance in F1 under the Red Bull umbrella; before him would be Alexander Albon, who is no longer even affiliated with the team.
If a young driver can choose a junior team, it would become clear that Red Bull somehow does not have a path forward. Even though, you know, they literally bought two F1 teams 20 years ago in part because of their junior team.
Lose competitiveness? Lose sponsorship? Or lose, in some ways, purpose? That is the question.
About the author
Michael has watched NASCAR for 20 years and regularly covered the sport from 2013-2021, and also formerly covered the SRX series from 2021-2023. He now covers the FIA Formula 1 World Championship, the NASCAR Xfinity Series, and road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series.
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