Up to Speed: Will JGR’s Balance of Power Shift to Denny Hamlin?

Unless you followed late model racing in Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic 20 years ago, you probably had never heard of Denny Hamlin.

It would have also been a surprise how, near the end of the 2005 NASCAR season, Joe Gibbs Racing elevated Hamlin to its No. 11 Cup Series ride as a full-time driver.

Yet, just one year later, everyone in NASCAR knew his name. In one of the most impressive rookie seasons ever, Hamlin scored two wins, 20 top 10s and an average finish of 12.5. He also captured Rookie of the Year honors over Martin Truex Jr., who had won the last two titles in the second-tier division and was expected to be the season’s splashiest rookie.

Instead, it was Hamlin who emerged as the biggest future star. 

Fast forward to the present, when Hamlin and Truex are now Cup Series veterans and teammates at JGR, despite the completely opposite career paths that they have taken.

Hamlin has driven the No. 11 ever since his introduction to the Cup Series.

He has never raced with another number or for another team in 667 starts and he and Gibbs are by far the longest active driver/team pairing in the Cup Series. Over the years, Hamlin has won 54 races — including three Daytona 500s — and has shown the capability to win on just about every type of track. However, a Cup Series championship continues to elude him.

Truex, meanwhile, did not have Hamlin’s instant success at the Cup Series level, or a long-term relationship with any team. He got his first win in 2007 with a rapidly declining Dale Earnhardt Inc., but win No. 2 did not come until 2013 with Michael Waltrip Racing. Truex and MWR looked like a pairing on the rise at the time, but in a shocking turn of events, the team lost Truex’s primary sponsor amid the fallout of a race manipulation scandal, forcing Truex and MWR to part ways. At the time, it looked like he was never going to reach his full potential.

Yet Truex’s career had more surprises in store. After some initial struggles, he took the single-car Furniture Row Racing team from scrappy underdog to certified powerhouse, winning eight races and the Cup Series championship in 2017. Truex and FRR were poised to be contenders for years, but the departure of a key sponsor in 2018 ultimately led the organization to close up shop at the end of the season. Truex then jumped to JGR, where he has come close to winning more championships in seasons like 2019 and 2021. His current win total stands at 34.

Now, there is more change on the horizon for Joe Gibbs Racing. Truex announced on Friday (June 14) that he will not race full-time in 2025, signaling his transition into a long-rumored retirement. Once Truex departs the No. 19, it will leave Hamlin as the lone veteran racer at JGR and the undisputed face of the team and Toyota in NASCAR.

That status is something that Hamlin has never been able to claim on his own.

In the early 2010s, he was one of a trio of young drivers at Gibbs, along with Kyle Busch and Joey Logano, who were billed as a team of rising stars. The JGR of the mid-2010s included Hamlin, Busch, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards as a super-team of stars who were all capable of contending for the championship. After the departures of Edwards and Kenseth, the team relied on Hamlin, Busch, and eventually Truex as its veteran core, complemented by young hopefuls like Daniel Suarez, Erik Jones and ultimately Christopher Bell.

Busch’s parting with JGR after 2022 allowed Ty Gibbs, Joe’s grandson, to take the open seat. 

Hamlin has been there through it all, and he has been an enormous part of what’s made JGR successful post-Tony Stewart.

Yet he often felt more like a piece of the puzzle than the face of the team. Busch became the driver most associated with Gibbs in the 2010s due to his speed, two championships in the flagship No. 18 and his fiery competitiveness. Even Kenseth, who only raced for JGR for five years, was the backbone of the organization and veteran leader who did the best job of elevating the people around him. JGR has always been Hamlin’s team, but it has never felt like Hamlin’s team.    

That could easily change next year when no one left in Gibbs’ shop can match Hamlin’s credentials. Bell is not a Cup Series newbie anymore, and he has done a fantastic job at advancing to the championship race the last two years. Yet he still lacks Hamlin’s level of experience and week-to-week consistency. Ty Gibbs may well be the future of the team, but he is still seeking his first Cup Series win and playoff appearance.

As for Truex’s replacement, it seems more likely that JGR will pick someone relatively young instead of another veteran. That could mean a Toyota prospect like Corey Heim or Chandler Smith gets the call. The organization could also take a free agent like Chase Briscoe or Noah Gragson, who has some Cup Series experience and perhaps a bit of untapped potential. Perhaps Jones, currently struggling through a rough season with Legacy Motor Club, could be persuaded to rejoin JGR. The team certainly will not lack for options, though none of those options are going to be as experienced or accomplished as Hamlin.

The rest of this season, and especially next year, are therefore golden opportunities for Hamlin. He is going to be JGR’s biggest championship threat, and maybe that extra bit of focus and attention from the organization will make the difference in him finally winning the title. With Truex stepping away, the balance of power at Joe Gibbs Racing will shift once again and Hamlin is poised to be the one who comes out on top.

After nearly 20 years of being No. 11, it may finally be his time to become number one.