2009 closes out the first decade of the 21st century for NASCAR, and what a long, strange trip it’s been. Who would have thought back in 2000 Petty Enterprises would cease to exist nine years later – along with no Adam Petty to lead NASCAR’s first family into the next generation?
Or that Dale Earnhardt Sr. would make only 37 more Cup starts, his death the impetus for a sudden wave of safety innovation no one would have even imagined? And who would have believed that a little-known Busch Series upstart named Jimmie Johnson would be the man rewriting the record books for three full seasons, becoming one of the best stock car drivers ever to set foot in the series?
With 2009 offering one last chance to shape the story of the decade, more outlandish stories beg to be written. Johnson will be looking to set a record never thought possible, especially under the Chase playoff format – four consecutive Sprint Cup titles. To do it, he’ll need to fend off perhaps the strongest field of challengers he’s ever had, with Carl Edwards, Mark Martin and Kyle Busch the trendy picks to break his streak. In the background looms one of the better rookie battles of the decade in Joey Logano vs. Scott Speed: NASCAR’s handpicked future messiah against the quirkiest newcomer it’s had in years.
Who will rise above the fray to end the 2000s with a bang? And who will fall flat on their faces, watching most of the season from the sidelines after failing to meet expectations? Our staff tries to give the answers with our annual season predictions. But while I’m sure we’ll be the ones who fall flat with several Chase selections gone bad, there’s one thing I hope we can all agree on – that an up-and-down decade for our sport closes on a very definitive high note, whoever the champion may be.
| 2009 Sprint Cup Title Predictions | ||||
| Expert | Tom Bowles | Matt Taliaferro | Toni Montgomery | |
| Title | Editor-In-Chief | Assistant Editor | Senior Editor | |
| 1st | Mark Martin | Jimmie Johnson | Carl Edwards | |
| 2nd | Carl Edwards | Carl Edwards | Jimmie Johnson | |
| 3rd | Kyle Busch | Kyle Busch | Jeff Gordon | |
| 4th | Jeff Gordon | Mark Martin | Greg Biffle | |
| 5th | Matt Kenseth | Greg Biffle | Mark Martin | |
| 6th | Jimmie Johnson | Jeff Gordon | Kevin Harvick | |
| 7th | Kevin Harvick | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Matt Kenseth | |
| 8th | David Ragan | Matt Kenseth | Jeff Burton | |
| 9th | Kurt Busch | Jeff Burton | Denny Hamlin | |
| 10th | Jamie McMurray | Kevin Harvick | Kyle Busch | |
| 11th | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | David Ragan | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | |
| 12th | Jeff Burton | Denny Hamlin | David Ragan | |
| First Driver Fired | Reed Sorenson | Sam Hornish Jr. | Elliott Sadler | |
| Rookie of the Year | Scott Speed | Joey Logano | Joey Logano | |
| Why They Picked How They Did | Back in December, I had these rankings flip-flopped, with Edwards first and Martin second. But there’s just something about Martin’s one-time return to the series that has me thinking great things. Sources keep telling me he’ll have the best equipment money can buy at HMS; and at 50, he’s got plenty of experience chasing these titles. I think Johnson will finally have bad luck in the Chase that will open the door, and the driver of the No. 5 will want it just that much more than anyone else – simply because it’s his last chance. A few other quick thoughts I have: don’t expect the Big Four to come back to the pack, do expect Speed to be better than anyone thinks, and be totally unsure what to expect from mergers like RPM and EGR, and an 18-year-old Logano messiah crowned just a bit too soon. | Johnson and Chad Knaus are sure-fire No.1 until someone proves they can knock them off their perch. Anyone who says they aren’t the team to beat obviously doesn’t know much about this sport. Or any other, for that matter. As for Hornish, he has no guidance in the form of a teammate who will pull him aside and show him what he’s doing wrong. If it weren’t for the money, he’d be back in the IRL by now. | Johnson could win four in a row, but Edwards won’t be content to be a bridesmaid forever. And no one can mount a come-from-behind charge like Carl “Elway” Edwards. As for Logano, that choice was not as simple as it might seem – Speed is not going to be a pushover, and neither will Team Red Bull. | |
| 2009 Sprint Cup Title Predictions | ||||
| Expert | Cami Starr | Amy Henderson | Tony Lumbis | |
| Title | Fantasy Racing Editor | Assistant Editor | Writer/Marketing Director | |
| 1st | Jimmie Johnson | Greg Biffle | Kyle Busch | |
| 2nd | Greg Biffle | Jimmie Johnson | Jimmie Johnson | |
| 3rd | Kevin Harvick | Carl Edwards | Jeff Gordon | |
| 4th | Kyle Busch | Kyle Busch | Carl Edwards | |
| 5th | Tony Stewart | Jeff Gordon | Jeff Burton | |
| 6th | Mark Martin | Mark Martin | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | |
| 7th | Matt Kenseth | Matt Kenseth | Mark Martin | |
| 8th | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Kevin Harvick | Matt Kenseth | |
| 9th | Jeff Gordon | Jeff Burton | Kasey Kahne | |
| 10th | David Ragan | Denny Hamlin | Greg Biffle | |
| 11th | Carl Edwards | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Tony Stewart | |
| 12th | Jeff Burton | Brian Vickers | David Ragan | |
| First Driver Fired | Elliott Sadler | Jamie McMurray | Elliott Sadler | |
| Rookie of the Year | Joey Logano | Joey Logano | Scott Speed | |
| Why They Picked How They Did | Johnson and Knaus play the Chase game to perfection, don’t outright blow the first 26 races, and then beat everyone else the last 10. I don’t see anyone beating them at the game they have perfected. As for Sadler, most of the time when you break up with someone and then decide to take them back later, it turns out to be the wrong decision – and you look for any reason to dump them again. He’ll be on a short leash. | Biffle has quietly and methodically put himself in position to make a legit title run for the last few years. His “know when to hold ’em; know when to fold ‘em” approach shows a maturity that few of the competition have. It’s hard to bet against Johnson – who could easily win a fourth title this year – but given that his team relied so heavily on testing in 2008, I think the ban really hits this team where it hurts more so than the competition. Still, Johnson will be there every step of the way. | There is a belief in the world of sports that you have to lose a championship before you can win one. I think that’s exactly what Kyle Busch and the No. 18 team will do after letting one slip through their fingers in 2008. I think the field will be ultra-competitive for the Chase; but in the end, it will be mostly the same teams competing for the championship in the final 10 events. | |
| 2009 Sprint Cup Title Predictions | ||||
| Expert | Bryan Davis Keith | Mike Lovecchio | Phil Allaway | |
| Title | Assistant Editor | Assistant Editor | Website Contributor | |
| 1st | Jimmie Johnson | Carl Edwards | Carl Edwards | |
| 2nd | Carl Edwards | Jimmie Johnson | Jeff Gordon | |
| 3rd | Jeff Gordon | Kyle Busch | Jimmie Johnson | |
| 4th | Greg Biffle | Jeff Gordon | Kevin Harvick | |
| 5th | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Matt Kenseth | Kyle Busch | |
| 6th | Matt Kenseth | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Matt Kenseth | |
| 7th | Kyle Busch | Mark Martin | Denny Hamlin | |
| 8th | Kevin Harvick | David Ragan | David Ragan | |
| 9th | Denny Hamlin | Greg Biffle | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | |
| 10th | Mark Martin | Denny Hamlin | Mark Martin | |
| 11th | Jeff Burton | Joey Logano | Clint Bowyer | |
| 12th | Tony Stewart | Tony Stewart | Tony Stewart | |
| First Driver Fired | Reed Sorenson | Elliott Sadler | Reed Sorenson | |
| Rookie of the Year | Joey Logano | Joey Logano | Joey Logano | |
| Why They Picked How They Did | Knaus and the No. 48 team were the first ones to figure out how to treat the Chase as a playoff, and while the rest of the Cup field has caught on, there’s still no team better at the season’s final 10-race stretch than the reigning champs. Plus, with the ban on testing, the rich are only going to get richer in 2009. Meanwhile, Sorenson’s once-promising career has proven to be all but a bust, and his new ride at RPM is no improvement over his old one at CGR. With AJ Allmendinger waiting in the wings for a full-time ride, Sorenson will have to start red-hot to improve his job security… and there’s no reason to think he’ll get that start. | Edwards went toe-to-toe with Johnson last year, but two mistakes cost him and his team the championship. If they learn from last season’s Chase, the No. 99 team will have a shot again this year. Other big stories will include Ragan breaking into the Chase – along with Logano in Gibbs equipment. | Edwards can easily win the championship if he keeps up his form from the end of 2008. However, he’ll still face the Hendrick onslaught. As for Gordon, he’s not going to go winless again this year. Instead, he’ll likely get to the disputed logjam for third on the all-time wins list this season (84). The rookie race will be closer than people would think between Logano and Speed, but Logano will get the upper hand – thanks to Greg Zipadelli. | |
| 2009 Sprint Cup Title Predictions | ||||
| Expert | Beth Lunkenheimer | Vito Pugliese | Matt McLaughlin | |
| Title | Senior Writer | Senior Writer | Senior Writer | |
| 1st | Jimmie Johnson | Mark Martin | Carl Edwards | |
| 2nd | Carl Edwards | Carl Edwards | Jimmie Johnson | |
| 3rd | Jeff Gordon | Matt Kenseth | Kyle Busch | |
| 4th | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Denny Hamlin | |
| 5th | Mark Martin | Kyle Busch | Matt Kenseth | |
| 6th | Tony Stewart | Jimmie Johnson | Jeff Gordon | |
| 7th | David Ragan | Jeff Gordon | Greg Biffle | |
| 8th | Clint Bowyer | Greg Biffle | Mark Martin | |
| 9th | Kevin Harvick | Denny Hamlin | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | |
| 10th | Matt Kenseth | Jeff Burton | Jeff Burton | |
| 11th | Ryan Newman | Brian Vickers | Kevin Harvick | |
| 12th | Kurt Busch | David Ragan | Clint Bowyer | |
| First Driver Fired | Joe Nemechek | Sam Hornish Jr. | Elliott Sadler | |
| Rookie of the Year | Scott Speed | Scott Speed | Joey Logano | |
| Why They Picked How They Did | Johnson and Knaus have won three championships in a row, and it’s hard to bet against them making the Chase. While four in a row has never been done, Johnson is the one that has the potential to make history with the 2009 season. Nemechek won’t necessarily be fired – he’s the driver/owner – but he will probably be a team that ends up having to drop out due to lack of funding and sponsorship dollars. | Is my championship pick based anywhere remotely related to reality? Not a chance. However, if I am right, I will be forever vindicated after 20 years of perpetual heartbreak – as will one of the iconic drivers in the history of the sport, and the last link to the previous generation of drivers who helped bring the series into national prominence. Otherwise, just pencil in Johnson for a record-breaking fourth consecutive championship. | Since the advent of the Chase, Johnson and the No. 48 team have shown the rest of the drivers and teams how the game is played. But in doing so, they’ve made themselves a stationary target. In 2008, Edwards chased Johnson with the boundless determination, endurance, and joy of a retriever puppy chasing down ground balls. He and the No. 99 bunch will learn from the mistakes they made and present a formidable challenge to the seemingly invincible No. 48. If not Edwards, then who? One of the Wonder Bread Twins from Hendrick: Johnson or Gordon. Also, watch for Kahne as a darkhorse. | |
| 2009 Sprint Cup Title Predictions | ||||
| Expert | S.D. Grady | Mike Neff | Danny Peters | |
| Title | Senior Writer | Senior Writer | Senior Writer | |
| 1st | Jimmie Johnson | Jimmie Johnson | Jimmie Johnson | |
| 2nd | Kyle Busch | Kyle Busch | Carl Edwards | |
| 3rd | Carl Edwards | Carl Edwards | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | |
| 4th | Jeff Gordon | Mark Martin | Mark Martin | |
| 5th | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Greg Biffle | Matt Kenseth | |
| 6th | Mark Martin | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Greg Biffle | |
| 7th | Greg Biffle | Jeff Gordon | Denny Hamlin | |
| 8th | Denny Hamlin | Matt Kenseth | Jeff Gordon | |
| 9th | Jeff Burton | Jeff Burton | Kevin Harvick | |
| 10th | Clint Bowyer | Kevin Harvick | Kyle Busch | |
| 11th | Kevin Harvick | Tony Stewart | David Ragan | |
| 12th | Scott Speed | Denny Hamlin | Jeff Burton | |
| First Driver Fired | Kirk Shelmerdine | No One | Elliott Sadler | |
| Rookie of the Year | Scott Speed | Joey Logano | Joey Logano | |
| Why They Picked How They Did | My top 12 is mostly in the order I thought of them. If Jimmie stumbles in the playoffs, Kyle may not have the same stupid bad luck as 2008. Then again, Edwards is looking hungry for the Cup. Yes, I know – same drivers/different year. But with all the instability in the garage during the offseason, I don’t see how 2009 will end up that much different from 2008. Missing somebody? Penske seems to have lost the magic touch, and the Ganassi/Petty/Gillett-Evernham/DEI tumult has effectively removed the chances for those drivers in 2009. | Johnson’s won three in a row, and Knaus is still on the pit box. As long as those two are together, there is no reason not to think they’re the preseason favorite to win the championship. If Knaus puts his mind to it, they very well could win seven straight. Edwards is most peoples’ preseason pick to pull the upset; but in the end Roush can’t compete with Hendrick. | Jimmie makes it four in a row in a nail-biting last race of the season. Ragan and Martin replace Stewart and Bowyer in the field of 12. As for the rookie race, it will be a close battle with Speed; but I’m tipping Sliced Bread to win this award and launch what – if the hype is to be believed – will be a Hall of Fame career. | |
About the author
The Frontstretch Staff is made up of a group of talented men and women spread out all over the United States and Canada. Residing in 15 states throughout the country, plus Ontario, and widely ranging in age, the staff showcases a wide variety of diverse opinions that will keep you coming back for more week in and week out.
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